2026 World Cup Bubble Watch: Who will qualify for the field of 48?

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The 2026 men’s World Cup is still more than a year away, but in March of 2025, its field of 48 teams began to take shape. Japan, New Zealand, Iran and Argentina joined co-hosts Canada, Mexico and the United States on the list of qualified nations. Several others have moved to within striking distance of clinching berths.

Still, as the tournament flickers onto global horizons, most spots at next summer’s party remain unclaimed. World Cup qualifying remains in progress on five of six continents. It will pick back up in June with 157 nations still alive and vying for 41 invites.

But, by the end of 2025, all but six will be sent.

The 2026 men’s World Cup, in other words, is about to take shape.

And this is your home, your hub, to follow its formation.

Yahoo Sports’ World Cup Bubble Watch is tracking the six-continent, stop-start sprint to North America in 2026. We’re publishing updated breakdowns before and after each window of qualifiers. What follows is a digestible picture of the World Cup field after a wild March window. You can view it as one behemoth below, or click the following links to hone in on one of the six continents.

Africa | Asia | North, Central America and the Caribbean | Europe | Oceania | South America

The 2026 World Cup qualifying bubble — post-March

The following is a subjective assessment of soccer’s 211 men’s national teams and where they stand after the March window.

Think of the “confident” category as, roughly, the countries with an 80% or better chance to qualify. The long shots are below 20%. The bubble is everywhere in between.

And the bubble, for now, is still quite large — even as dozens of teams begin to slide off of it.

Qualified (7): Canada, Mexico, United States, Japan, New Zealand, Iran, Argentina

Confident (19): Uruguay, Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay; South Korea, Uzbekistan, Jordan; Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, South Africa, Ghana, Algeria; Spain, France, England, Germany, Portugal

Bubble (56): Venezuela, Bolivia; Australia, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, UAE, Qatar, Iraq, Oman; Senegal, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Gabon, Sudan; Italy, Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, Sweden, Netherlands, Poland, Wales, Serbia, Scotland, Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Turkey, Georgia, Hungary, Ireland, Slovenia, Greece, Ukraine, Iceland, Finland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Norway, Israel, North Macedonia, Czech Republic, Montenegro; Honduras, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, Curacao, Haiti, Panama, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Jamaica, Suriname, El Salvador

Long shots (82): Chile, Peru; Bahrain, China, Kyrgyzstan, Palestine, Kuwait; Mozambique, Botswana, Uganda, Guinea, Mali, Comoros, Madagascar, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, Burkina Faso, Togo, South Sudan, Mauritania, Rwanda, Benin, Lesotho, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Libya, Angola, Eswatini, Niger, Tanzania, Zambia, Congo*, Gambia, Kenya, Burundi, Namibia, Liberia, Malawi, Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic; Romania, Albania, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Belarus, Armenia, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta, Cyprus, Moldova, San Marino, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar; New Caledonia; Cuba, Cayman Islands, Antigua and Barbuda, Bermuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Grenada, Bahamas, Saint Lucia, Aruba, Barbados, Guyana, Montserrat, Belize, Dominican Republic, Dominica, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Anguilla

How 2026 World Cup qualifying works

FIFA, soccer’s global governing body, divvies up World Cup berths and allots them to six continental confederations. For 2026, the allotment is:

Europe: 16
Africa: 9*
Asia: 8*
South America: 6*
North and Central America and the Caribbean: 6** (3 co-hosts qualified automatically; 3 others will qualify on merit)
Oceania: 1*

*The asterisks represent playoff berths. After 46 spots are claimed, six additional teams go to an intercontinental playoff to vie for the final two spots in March of 2026.

Each confederation devises its own qualifying format. Some, like Asia’s, are long and labyrinthine; others, like Europe’s, are relatively straightforward.

They’re all outlined in our continent-by-continent Bubble Watch posts below.

AFC | CAF | CONCACAF | CONMEBOL | OFC | UEFA

South America (CONMEBOL)

World Cup expansion has taken the edge off many South American qualifiers. With 14 of 18 rounds played, all the big boys seem to be safe. Argentina clinched qualification Tuesday. Brazil and others could follow in June.

But their places at the 2026 party aren’t quite locked up. And below them, two nations who’ve never won a men’s World Cup game, Venezuela and Bolivia, are fighting for a chance to make history.

World Cup berths: 6 (plus 1 intercontinental playoff berth)

World Cup qualifying format: Simple. Ten teams, in a single table, play one another home and away. The top six qualify for the World Cup. Seventh place earns a journey to the intercontinental playoff.

Standings | Schedule and results

South America 2026 World Cup qualifying bubble

Qualified: Argentina
Confident: Uruguay, Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay
Bubble: Venezuela, Bolivia
Long shots: Chile, Peru
Eliminated: None

Winners, losers of the March qualifiers in South America

Winner: Paraguay — What a window for La Albirroja! Paraguay took four points, including one on the road in Colombia, and leapt into fifth place. Now, only a calamitous closing stretch — and an unforeseeable charge from Bolivia or Venezuela — could deny Paraguay a place in 2026.

Loser: Colombia — They’ll probably still qualify. But a heartbreaking loss in Brazil — to a 99th-minute Vinicius Jr. winner — and a blown lead at home to Paraguay have left Los Cafeteros only five points clear of the intercontinental playoff spot.

Winner: Venezuela — A tight, tense 1-0 win over Peru was enough to lift La Vinotinto into seventh place. If they beat Bolivia on Matchday 15 at home — which they’ll be favored to do — they’ll have a four-point cushion.

Asia (AFC)

Japan last week became the first non-host nation to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Iran joined the Samurai Blue on Tuesday. The rest of Asia will have to wait until the final window of third-round qualifiers in June to book tickets — either to the World Cup or a last-chance fourth round.

Entering that final window, 15 countries remain alive for six more guaranteed places at next summer’s tournament. Four of those places will be filled by June. The other two will be awarded in the fall, via the fourth round (explained below).

World Cup berths: 8 (plus 1 intercontinental playoff berth)

World Cup qualifying format: It’s complicated. A first round whittled the field down from 46 to 36. A second round, featuring groups of four, cut it in half to 18. In the ongoing third round, those 18 teams were seeded and drawn into three groups of six. The top two in each group qualify for the World Cup. The next two — so six teams in total — go to a fourth round, or second-chance round, where they’re split into two groups of three. The winner of each fourth-round group also qualifies. The runners-up go to a playoff for a place in the intercontinental playoff. So, yeah … complicated.

Standings | Schedule and results

Asia 2026 World Cup qualifying bubble

Qualified: Japan, Iran
Confident: Uzbekistan, South Korea, Jordan
Bubble: Australia, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, UAE, Qatar, Iraq, Oman
Long shots: Bahrain, China, Kyrgyzstan, Palestine, Kuwait
Eliminated: North Korea, Mongolia, Maldives, Guam, Sri Lanka, Macau, Cambodia, Timor-Leste, Brunei, Bhutan, Laos, India, Afghanistan, Syria, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, Turkmenistan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Philippines, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Nepal, Lebanon, Bangladesh

Winners, losers of the March qualifiers in Asia

Winner: Australia — Wins over Indonesia and China put the Aussies on solid ground in second place. Their June schedule is tough — vs. Japan, at third-place Saudi Arabia — but their three-point advantage over the Saudis entering the home stretch could prove decisive.

Losers: China and Bahrain — Both marched into March with a realistic shot at direct qualification. Both limped out of the window with two losses and waning hopes of even reaching the fourth round.

Winner: Jordan — Four points, including one at South Korea, have Jordan in pole position for a direct qualification spot in Group B. A win over Iraq would be sufficient — no matter how their first game of the June window, at Oman, plays out.

Loser: Iraq — Held a 1-0 lead for most of Tuesday’s game against Palestine, then threw it away. Palestine’s 88th-minute equalizer and 97th-minute winner knocked Iraq out of the top two, for now, behind Jordan.

Africa (CAF)

In Africa, a jam-packed March window of World Cup qualifiers began with several giants in peril. It ended with a more digestible picture of the 2026 field, in part because most of those giants took care of business.

Most, but not all. While Ghana, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and others went two for two, Nigeria, Cameroon and Senegal stumbled. With six games gone and four to go, that latter group has work to do — and in some cases, a lot of work — to nab one of Africa’s nine World Cup spots.

Below is a rundown of the field, and of a busy March window.

World Cup berths: 9 (plus 1 intercontinental playoff berth)

World Cup qualifying format: All 54 teams were drawn into nine groups of six. The winner of each group qualifies for the World Cup. The four runners-up with the most points go to a playoff; and the winner of that playoff gets Africa’s spot in the intercontinental playoffs.

Standings | Schedule and results

Africa 2026 World Cup qualifying bubble

Qualified: None
Confident: Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, South Africa, Ghana, Algeria
Bubble: Senegal, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Gabon, Sudan
Long shots: Mozambique, Botswana, Uganda, Guinea, Mali, Comoros, Madagascar, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, Burkina Faso, Togo, South Sudan, Mauritania, Rwanda, Benin, Lesotho, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Libya, Angola, Eswatini, Niger, Tanzania, Zambia, Congo*, Gambia, Kenya, Burundi, Namibia, Liberia, Malawi, Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic
Eliminated: Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, Chad, Djibouti, Somalia
Withdrew: Eritrea

*FIFA suspended Congo’s soccer federation in February. The national team’s March qualifiers were canceled … but FIFA hasn’t confirmed that it is disqualified altogether.

Winners and losers of the March window in Africa

Winner: South Africa — Businesslike wins over Lesotho and Benin have Bafana Bafana in the driver’s seat in Group C, with a five-point cushion.

Loser: Nigeria — When Victor Osimhen scored in the 74th minute of Tuesday’s tense qualifier against Zimbabwe — as he ripped off his protective mask, with pandemonium erupting all around him in Uyo — Nigeria looked like a winner of the window. Had the Super Eagles held onto that 1-0 lead, they’d be in second place, within shouting distance of South Africa. Instead, they conceded a 90th-minute equalizer, and slumped back to fourth place, six points off the Group C pace. So, they’re in trouble.

Winner: Ghana — The Black Stars smashed both Chad and Madagascar to take firm control of Group I. Comoros, a volcanic archipelago of less than a million people, whose national team beat Ghana back in 2023, is still lurking, but its 3-0 loss to Mali last week gave Ghana three points of breathing room.

Winner: Cape Verde — Two narrow wins gave Cape Verde the top spot in Group D, one point ahead of …

Loser: Cameroon — A stalemate with last-place Eswatini has set up a crucial clash with Cape Verde in September. With a loss there, Cameroon would be on the brink, needing help to climb back toward World Cup qualification.

Winner: Egypt — Egypt’s wins over Ethiopia and Sierra Leone kept second-place Burkina Faso — who also won twice — at arm’s length, five points back.

Loser: Sudan — The Sudanese held Senegal to a 0-0 draw, then looked set to stay atop Group B … only to concede a haphazard 98th-minute equalizer to South Sudan on Tuesday. In doing so, their underdog quest might have fizzled out.

Winner: Democratic Republic of Congo — The beneficiary of the Sudan-Senegal draw was the DR Congo, who saw off two minnows and rose to the top of their group.

Winner: Algeria — A massive 5-1 victory over Mozambique put the Algerians in control of Group G.

Winner: Gabon — LAFC star Denis Bouanga and 35-year-old Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang led their nation to two more wins, and kept the pressure on Group F favorite Ivory Coast — whom Gabon will host on Marchday 8 in September.

Europe (UEFA)

European World Cup qualifying soft-launched in March. It won’t kick into full gear until September, but six of the 12 groups — the ones with five teams, as opposed to four — are underway.

Thus far, there have been no surprises. England took six points from its first two games. The rest of the top seeds will join the fray in June and September. In total, 16 European countries will qualify, the most from any single confederation ever.

World Cup berths: 16

World Cup qualifying format: Europe’s 54 eligible nations were split into 12 groups of four or five teams apiece. After a double round robin, the winner of each group qualifies for the World Cup. The runners-up, plus the four best-ranked teams remaining from a separate UEFA competition, the Nations League, go to playoffs — where they’d have to win two knockout matches to claim one of Europe’s last four World Cup spots.

Standings | Schedule and results

How to watch: Fox Sports channels, Fubo

Europe 2026 World Cup qualifying bubble

Qualified: None
Confident: Spain, France, England, Germany, Portugal
Bubble: Italy, Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, Sweden, Netherlands, Poland, Wales, Serbia, Scotland, Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Turkey, Georgia, Hungary, Ireland, Slovenia, Greece, Ukraine, Iceland, Finland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Norway, Israel, North Macedonia, Czech Republic, Montenegro
Long shots: Romania, Albania, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Belarus, Armenia, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta, Cyprus, Moldova, San Marino, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar
Eliminated: None
Banned: Russia

Winners of the March qualifiers in Europe

Winner: Norway — In perhaps the most consequential game of the March window, Norway put four past Israel on Tuesday. It also trounced Moldova, and announced itself as the challenger to Italy in Group I.

Winner: Bosnia and Herzegovina — A 1-0 win at Romania gave the Bosnians an early leg up in Group H. Austria is still favored to top that quintet, but Bosnia established itself as a contender — perhaps for the top spot, and definitely for a playoff place.

Oceania (OFC)

New Zealand clinched Oceania’s only guaranteed berth at the 2026 World Cup with a 3-0 victory over New Caledonia in Monday’s OFC qualifying final.

New Caledonia, which beat Tahiti in last week’s semifinals, will go to the intercontinental playoffs, and is therefore still alive. But, as the 152nd-ranked team in the world, it will be a heavy underdog.

Oceania 2026 World Cup qualifying bubble

World Cup qualifying results

Qualified: New Zealand
Long shot: New Caledonia
Eliminated: Tahiti, Fiji, Cook Islands, American Samoa, Samoa, Tonga, Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu

North, Central America and Caribbean (CONCACAF)

CONCACAF World Cup qualifying was on hiatus in March, as the national teams of North and Central America and the Caribbean competed in Nations League finals and for spots in this summer’s Gold Cup.

It will resume in June, but it’s been watered down by the fact that the 2026 World Cup’s three co-hosts — Canada, Mexico and the United States — have all qualified automatically.

World Cup berths: 6 (3 co-hosts qualified automatically; 3 others will qualify on merit)

World Cup qualifying format: After a four-team play-in round to shave the field from 32 to 30, those 30 were divided into six groups of five. The top two in each group will advance to a decisive third round, where the 12 second-round survivors will be drawn into three groups of four. The three winners of those groups qualify for the World Cup, and the two best runners-up head to the intercontinental playoffs.

Standings | Schedule and results

CONCACAF 2026 World Cup qualifying bubble

Qualified: Canada, Mexico, United States (all automatically)
Confident: None
Bubble: Honduras, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, Curacao, Haiti, Panama, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Jamaica, Suriname, El Salvador
Long shot: Cuba, Cayman Islands, Antigua and Barbuda, Bermuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Grenada, Bahamas, Saint Lucia, Aruba, Barbados, Guyana, Montserrat, Belize, Dominican Republic, Dominica, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Anguilla
Eliminated: U.S. Virgin Islands, Turks and Caicos Islands

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