There wasn’t a ton of madness on Thursday at the NCAA tournament.
There were some mild upsets but the double-digit seeds that won — Arkansas, Drake and McNeese — weren’t any major surprise. Nobody’s bracket should have been ripped up by Thursday night. Those teams that won are back in action on Saturday as the NCAA tournament moves to the second round. Here are the picks for Saturday’s games, with odds from BetMGM:
All times Eastern
The biggest upset Thursday, in terms of seed, was No. 12 McNeese moving on with a win over Clemson. But it didn’t seem like much of an upset. McNeese has plenty of talent and a good coach in Will Wade, who will be leaving to coach NC State next season. Purdue is also very good, and was never seriously threatened by High Point in the first round. But even though McNeese is just one seed line above High Point, there’s a pretty big difference in the levels of the two teams. Maybe NC State will have to wait another week for its coach.
All St. John’s has done throughout the season is look like one of the best teams in college basketball. They’re 26-2 since Nov. 24, with a one-point loss at Creighton and a two-point loss at Villanova. The Red Storm smashed Nebraska Omaha in the first round, winning by 30 and easily covering a big spread. Arkansas has talent, like all John Calipari teams do, but there’s no reason to go against St. John’s in this one.
Michigan had a tough test in the first round but eventually won (and covered) against a very good UC San Diego team. We saw in that game that despite having two 7-footers on the floor most of the time, Michigan doesn’t always play like a big team. Texas A&M does, leading college basketball in offensive rebounding percentage. Michigan is a good team that shook off a late-season slump to win the Big Ten tournament and its first-round game, but the Aggies look like the type of team that can play deep into this tournament.
Texas Tech still has some injury issues. The Red Raiders won in the first round despite Chance McMillian, the team’s third-leading scorer, being out. Texas Tech’s second-leading scorer, Darrion Williams, played despite being questionable but was 5 of 15 from the field. We’ll see if McMillian can play Saturday against a Drake team that everyone seemed to like in the first round, and the Bulldogs came through with a wire-to-wire win over Missouri. Drake is 31-3 for good reason and we saw Thursday the Bulldogs aren’t intimidated facing a team from a strong conference.
For a while on Thursday, Auburn looked like it might get a challenge from 16-seed Alabama State. The Tigers’ lead was just 28-24 with less than five minutes to go in the first half. Auburn pulled away for a 20-point win but it still seems like something is off with the Tigers, who lost three of their final four games before the NCAA tournament. Auburn needs to find that form it had the first four or so months of the season, because Creighton shouldn’t be an easy out. The Bluejays looked very good against Louisville in the first round.
BYU’s season completely turned around in early February. The Cougars were a mediocre 15-8 after an 18-point loss to Cincinnati on Feb. 8. Since then, somehow, BYU turned into one of the best teams in college basketball. The Cougars are 10-1 since then, with the only loss coming to Houston, and have some impressive wins in that stretch. Wisconsin has been good all season but did mix in some inexplicable losses. Another factor in BYU’s favor is it’s much more used to the altitude for this game in Denver. Getting a red-hot BYU team that is playing much better than its No. 6 seed lately, and getting the Cougars at altitude, was a rough draw for the Badgers.
When a team gets a seed far worse than its metrics indicate, it’s not just that team that gets the disadvantage. What about No. 1 seed Houston, which gets to the second round and has to face a Gonzaga team that is ranked seventh at KenPom.com? No other No. 8 or 9 seed was in the top 27. The Bulldogs also looked great in the first round, blasting Georgia. But this Houston team is used to playing and beating very good teams after dominating the Big 12 again. It’s not an easy matchup for Houston but the Cougars usually win and win big.
The Volunteers have what it takes to win a national title. They are strong on defense and have two college stars in leading scorer Chaz Lanier and point guard Zakai Zeigler. Bettors should have skepticism about Rick Barnes, who has a bad against-the-spread record in the NCAA tournament (Tennessee didn’t cover on Thursday either) but the Volunteers are just as good as any of the No. 1 seeds in the tournament. They’ll beat the Bruins and cover too.
This news was originally published on this post .
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