2025 Big Ten win totals, odds, picks: Predictions for every team as Ohio State, Oregon face big numbers

Expectations often define success. A team could go 10-2 during the regular season and make the College Football Playoff, and leave fans underwhelmed because it was picked to win a conference or national title. Meanwhile, a team projected to win four games can create a positive buzz around the program with a. 7-6 campaign that includes a bowl win. 

While expectations vary, a team’s preseason win total is the most reliable metric for judging whether a team lived up to its standard. After all, sportsbooks aren’t rooting for anybody; they’re only interested in making money.

While it’s only March, and the real games are months away, books have begun posting win totals for the 2025 season. So what better time to play out the entire season than right now? Sure, a lot of these schools don’t even know who their starting quarterbacks are, and there will be another flurry of roster movement once the spring portal opens up, but there’s no time for patience!

So I played out every game on the schedule in my head for all 18 Big Ten teams, and I know how the season will end. There’s no longer any need to wait. We’ll just ignore that when I did this exact exercise last year, when I went 9-9 on my predictions for each team. This year, I’m setting my own over/under at 8.5. Odds below via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Over/under 7.5 wins

Wins: Western Illinois, at Duke, Western Michigan, USC, at Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, at Wisconsin, Northwestern
Losses: at Indiana, Ohio State, at Washington

Analysis: There’s plenty of buzz around the Illini as a College Football Playoff contender, and it makes sense. A team that won 10 games last year returns nearly every starter, including a third-year starting QB in Luke Altmyer. The schedule is friendly, too. I have Illinois going 9-3, so I clearly think a total of 7.5 is low. Pick: Over 7.5 (-134)

Indiana

Over/under 8.5 wins

Wins: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Illinois, Michigan State, UCLA, Wisconsin, at Purdue
Losses: at Iowa, at Oregon, at Maryland, at Penn State

Analysis: The Hoosiers were a major surprise last year, and while they won’t collapse in 2025, it’s hard to hit it that big in the portal for consecutive seasons. The odds are this team will fall back to Earth a bit, but it says a lot that Indiana fans will be mad at me for thinking their football team will go 8-4. Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)

Iowa

Over/under 7.5 wins

Wins: Albany, UMass, Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan State
Losses: at Iowa State, at Rutgers, at Wisconsin, Penn State, Oregon, at USC, at Nebraska

Analysis: I didn’t plan on coming in this low on Iowa, but here we are. It’s not just about the quarterback situation. Iowa has been trending in the wrong direction along the lines of scrimmage in recent seasons. When you combine the questions with a schedule that isn’t overly friendly, I think this projection is rather reasonable. Pick: Under 7.5 (-170)

Maryland

Over/under 4.5 wins

Wins: FAU, Northern Illinois, Towson, Washington, Nebraska, Indiana
Losses: at Wisconsin, at UCLA, at Rutgers, at Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State

Analysis: I don’t believe the Terps were good last year, nor do I think they were as bad as their final record suggested. The schedule is much easier this season, as they won’t see Ohio State, Penn State or Oregon. They also have a very soft nonconference slate. This team should get back to a bowl. Pick: Over 4.5 (-115)

Michigan

Over/under 8.5 wins

Wins: New Mexico, Central Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington, at Michigan State, Purdue, at Northwestern, at Maryland
Losses: at Oklahoma, at Nebraska, at USC, Ohio State

Analysis: Last year, I gave Michigan the benefit of the doubt coming off a national title. This year, I’m not. The wins over Ohio State and Alabama to end the season papered over some of the team’s significant problems, and all the key players from that title team are gone now. Maybe Bryce Underwood is the Prince Who Was Promised right away, but I expect some growing pains. Pick: Under 8.5 (+148)

Michigan State

Over/under 5.5 wins

Wins: Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State, UCLA, Maryland
Losses: at USC, at Nebraska, at Indiana, Michigan, at Minnesota, Penn State, at Iowa

Analysis: A lot depends on the development of Aidan Chiles. If he taps into his potential in his second season as a starter, the Spartans could be 2025’s version of Indiana. If he doesn’t, it could be another rough season. Either way, there are too many tough road games on the schedule for me to assume Sparty takes a significant jump. Pick: Under 5.5 (+100)

Minnesota

Over/under 6.5 wins

Wins: Buffalo, Northwestern State, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, at Northwestern, Wisconsin
Losses: at Cal, at Ohio State, at Iowa, at Oregon

Analysis: For those who haven’t paid attention, Minnesota has failed to win seven or more regular season games only twice in the last six full (non-COVID) seasons. Last year, I made the mistake of going under on their 5.5 projection, but I won’t do it again. It’s not always fun or exciting to watch, but his program’s consistency deserves respect. There’s also a nice home schedule. Pick: Over 6.5 (-142)

Nebraska

Over/under 7.5 wins

Wins: Cincinnati, Akron, Houston Christian, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, USC, Iowa
Losses: at Maryland, at Minnesota, at UCLA, at Penn State

Analysis: Nebraska is another team that could take a serious leap forward if Dylan Raiola rounds out his game and improves. He has the potential to be the best QB in the conference, which goes a long way toward winning games. I don’t know if he goes that far in 2025, but I do think the Huskers take advantage of a schedule without Ohio State and Oregon on it. Pick: Over 7.5 (-122)

Northwestern

Over/under 3.5 wins

Wins: Western Illinois, UCLA, ULM, Purdue
Losses: at Tulane, Oregon, at Penn State, at Nebraska, at USC, Michigan, Minnesota, at Illinois

Analysis: I think Northwestern will finish 2025 with a record a lot closer to its 2024 season than 2023, but even if it doesn’t improve, it’ll still go over this win total! Starting on the road against Tulane won’t be easy, but my gut tells me Preston Stone will bring a consistent competence to the offense that didn’t exist last year. I don’t know if that’s enough to lead to serious improvement, but four wins shouldn’t be too difficult to find. Pick: Over 3.5 (-160)

Ohio State

Over/under 10.5 wins

Wins: Grambling, Ohio, at Washington, Minnesota, at Illinois, at Wisconsin, Penn State, at Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers, at Michigan
Losses: Texas

Analysis: I’ll be honest with you. I expected to go under here. My belief was that Ohio State would be like a lot of champions in the modern game: still very good, but struggling to replace key starters in an era where you can no longer horde depth so easily. Then I did the exercise, and this team won 11 games anyway! The truth is, it’ll all come down to whether they can win two of three games against Texas, Penn State, and Michigan. Clearly, I think they can. Pick: Over 10.5 (+128)

Oregon

Over/under 10.5 wins

Wins: Montana State, Oklahoma State, at Northwestern, Oregon State, Indiana, at Rutgers, Wisconsin, at Iowa, Minnesota, USC, at Washington
Losses: at Penn State

Analysis: I don’t know for sure who will start at quarterback for Oregon, but I’m confident the Ducks will be one of the more talented teams in the league. It also helps to avoid Michigan and Ohio State while getting USC at home. Road games against Penn State and Washington will be the big tests. Pick: Over 10.5 (-110)

Penn State

Over/under 10.5 wins

Wins: Nevada, FIU, Villanova, Oregon, at UCLA, Northwestern, at Iowa, Indiana, at Michigan State, Nebraska, at Rutgers
Losses: at Ohio State

Analysis: This is one of those spots where if the Nittany Lions don’t go over the total, it’ll feel like a disappointment. There’s been so much put into retaining players on the roster, as well as poaching Jim Knowles from Ohio State. There’s an all-in feel to this team that they need to deliver on. I think they will in the regular season. After that? Who knows? Pick: Over 10.5 (+134)

Purdue

Over/under 3.5 wins

Wins: Ball State, Southern Illinois, Rutgers
Losses: USC, at Notre Dame, Illinois, at Minnesota, at Northwestern, at Michigan, Ohio State, at Washington, Indiana

Analysis: After last season and with a new coach in charge, Purdue could finish below this projection at 3-9, and it’d feel like a breath of fresh air to fans. And that’s precisely what I think happens! The Boilermakers should start the year 2-0, and then it’s about finding home wins. I have them beating Rutgers, but would it truly shock any of us if they took down an Illinois or Indiana? Maybe even Northwestern on the road? Of course not. But if they only do it once, they finish below the total. Pick: Under 3.5 (-200)

Rutgers

Over/under 5.5 wins

Wins: Ohio, Miami OH, Norfolk State, Iowa, Maryland
Losses: at Minnesota, at Washington, Oregon, at Purdue, at Illinois, at Ohio State, Penn State

Analysis: Rutgers has finished over its projection each of the last two seasons, going 6-6 in the regular season in 2023 and 7-5 last year. They have experience returning, including at QB in Athan Kaliakmanis — who played well last year. All of this makes you think they should go over, but that’s not how it worked out here! It’s one of those odd years when you would rather have Oregon and Penn State at home because you probably aren’t winning those games anyway. Meanwhile, a lot of your coin-flip games are on the road. Oh, and there’s never a good time to have Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State on your schedule! Toss in an Illinois team coming off a 10-win season, and somebody at the Big Ten’s Scheduling Department clearly has it out for the Knights! Pick: Under 5.5 (-110)

UCLA

Over/under 4.5 wins

Wins: at UNLV, New Mexico, Maryland, Nebraska, Washington
Losses: Utah, at Northwestern, Penn State, at Michigan State, at Indiana, at Ohio State, at USC

Analysis: The Bruins got off to a slow start last year, but by the time the regular season ended, they felt like a team moving in the right direction. Momentum doesn’t always carry over to the offseason, but five wins doesn’t seem like a ridiculous request with this schedule. Taking care of business at home will determine how good the Bruins’ season is. Pick: Over 4.5 (-192)

USC

Over/under 7.5 wins

Wins: Missouri State, Georgia Southern, at Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, UCLA
Losses: at Illinois, at Notre Dame, at Nebraska, at Oregon

Analysis: USC has finished the regular season with eight wins or more just twice in the last six full seasons. The Trojans have only done it once in Lincoln Riley’s three seasons in charge, and that was in his first year. This is a simple fact I’m sharing. There’s no need to get mad at me about it. I’m taking the over here, but I don’t feel good about it at all. Pick: Over 7.5 (-118)

Washington

Over/under 7.5 wins

Wins: Colorado State, UC Davis, at Washington State, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue
Losses: Ohio State, at Maryland, at Michigan, at Wisconsin, at UCLA, Oregon

Analysis: The hope is that Demond Williams can take the Huskies to another level after finishing 6-6 in their first Big Ten regular season, but a projection of 7.5 wins feels overly optimistic to me. The Huskies play both Ohio State and Oregon — albeit at home — and a road trip to Michigan won’t be fun, either. Plus, we saw last year that the cross-country trips weren’t easy on anybody. Travel strugglees included a Huskies’ loss at Rutgers, so I’m not willing to assume this team beats Maryland on the road, either. Pick: Under 7.5 (-138)

Wisconsin

Over/under 5.5 wins

Wins: Miami OH, Middle Tennessee, Maryland, Iowa, Washington
Losses: at Alabama, at Michigan, Ohio State, at Oregon, at Indiana, Illinois, at Minnesota

Analysis: It’s a make-or-break season for Luke Fickell. The embattled Badgers coach has gone 12-13 in two seasons at Wisconsin, and saw the schools’ 22-year bowl streak end last year. There have been major changes since, but I don’t know how impactful they’ll be. Also, the schedule is assault and battery. The Badgers will be on the road for games against Alabama, Michigan and Oregon. But, hey, at least they get Ohio State at home, right!? All in all, of the nine Big Ten opponents on the schedule, eight made a bowl last season. Pick: Under 5.5 (-144)