March Madness picks: Odds, betting lines, expert predictions, watch times, schedule for NCAA tournament Sweet 16

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There aren’t too many different flavors in the Sweet 16.

Only four conferences are represented. It’s the first time in NCAA tournament history the Sweet 16 is made up of all power conference teams. The only seed lower than a No. 6 still alive is No. 10 Arkansas. The Razorbacks, with its massive NIL budget coming from the powerhouse SEC, are not a fun underdog story. They were just underachieving for a few months. There aren’t any great mid-major stories or incredible No. 15 seeds crashing the party. It’s a bummer because that’s part of what makes the NCAA tournament special. This year’s tournament is just the College Football Playoff, with the predictable brands taking over.

However, the favorite-heavy first weekend does lead to one of the strongest sets of Sweet 16 matchups you’ll find. Every game has a brand-name program and hopefully that leads to a competitive second weekend. Here are the picks for the Sweet 16, with all odds from BetMGM:

(All times Eastern.)

No. 6 BYU (+5.5) over No. 2 Alabama, 7:09 p.m. Thursday

BYU was the type of team that was bound to outplay its seed. It didn’t deserve better than a No. 6 seed based on résumé, but it has been one of the best teams in college basketball since early February. The Cougars have won 11 of 12, with the only loss coming to a very good Houston team. Every win was over a top-75 team at KenPom.com and five wins were over top-25 teams. Alabama has been a strange team the past few weeks, good enough to win at Auburn but also just 6-5 in its last 11 games (albeit against a brutal schedule). It struggled to put away Robert Morris in a 2 vs. 15 matchup. We know the offenses will show up. The total of 175.5 for this game isn’t just the top one on the board, the total is the highest in the Sweet 16 by 20 points. It’ll be a fun game, and it should be close.

No. 1 Florida (-6.5) over No. 4 Maryland, 7:39 p.m. Thursday

Before Sunday, Florida was smashing everyone in its path. It looked like the only team on Duke’s level heading into the NCAA tournament, then won by 26 in the first round. So while Florida did need a second-half comeback to get to the Sweet 16, that came against a UConn team that is well coached and has plenty of talent. It shouldn’t shake anyone’s confidence in the Gators; many champions have to survive at least one game like that. Maryland had to escape too, on a buzzer beater from Derik Queen, but it is also a very good team that is capable of beating just about anyone. But Florida is better, and this week it can re-establish itself as one of the few teams (and maybe the only one) capable of beating Duke.

No. 1 Duke (-8.5) over No. 4 Arizona, 9:39 p.m. Thursday

We saw this matchup before. On Nov. 22, Duke beat Arizona, 69-55. That game was in Tucson. What has really changed? Arizona is better than it was early in the season but Duke and its freshmen probably are too. Duke beat a decent Baylor team by 23 points in the second round. Arizona is better than Baylor, but this Duke team looks a lot like the UConn the past couple tournaments, capable of winning every game by double digits. Maybe a fellow No. 1 seed challenges the Blue Devils, but it’s hard to believe at this point that anyone else can.

No. 3 Texas Tech (-5.5) over No. 10 Arkansas, 10:09 p.m. Thursday

Arkansas will be the story here. John Calipari’s team got out of its 0-5 hole to start SEC play and not only made the tournament but beat Kansas and St. John’s to get to the Sweet 16. Texas Tech is probably fine being out of the spotlight. It’s not a team that has gotten a lot of attention, and that will continue in the favorite-heavy Sweet 16, but the Red Raiders are capable of making the Final Four.

No. 2 Michigan State (-3.5) over No. 6 Ole Miss, 7:09 p.m. Friday

Ole Miss was one of the teams that just needed to get out of SEC play. The Rebels looked a lot better than their 10-8 conference record would indicate in beating North Carolina and Iowa State. They are capable of winning this game. But, at the end of the day, the Spartans are playing well and we all know their track record in the NCAA tournament. You’re unlikely to regret blindly taking Tom Izzo in March.

No. 3 Kentucky (+4.5) over No. 2 Tennessee, 7:39 p.m. Friday

Tennessee lost twice to two teams this season. Florida, which had a great case to be the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, beat the Volunteers two times. As did Kentucky, which beat Tennessee 78-73 in Knoxville and 75-64 in a rematch at Lexington two weeks later. Is it a case of Tennessee not matching up well against the Wildcats? Kentucky hit 50% of its 3-point attempts in each game against Tennessee, which will be tough to replicate a third time. It’s a tough call because Tennessee is the better team and favored for a reason, but obviously Kentucky isn’t going to be intimidated in this one.

No. 5 Michigan (+8.5) over No. 1 Auburn, 9:39 p.m. Friday

Auburn was one of the dominant teams in the sport through most of the season. But the Tigers that earned the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament haven’t been that great lately. Auburn lost three of its last four games before the tournament, wasn’t dominant against No. 16 seed Alabama State in the first round and trailed Creighton at halftime in the second round. Maybe the second-half surge against Creighton, which led to Auburn winning and covering, was the sign of them getting out of that malaise. But it still doesn’t seem like this should be tied for the largest spread of the Sweet 16. The Wolverines are playing well enough to trust they can keep it close.

No. 1 Houston (-7.5) over No. 4 Purdue, 10:09 p.m. Friday

Houston shouldn’t be pleased with the selection committee. First, the committee missed seeding Gonzaga as a No. 8, when the Bulldogs’ metrics were much better than that. That led to Houston having by far the toughest second-round matchup of the No. 1 seeds. Houston survived that game, but now has to face Purdue in Indianapolis, about an hour bus ride for the Boilermakers. Simply, it’s a mistake by the committee to give a No. 4 seed what amounts to a home game in the Sweet 16. Houston is good enough to overcome that disadvantage and beat the Boilermakers, perhaps even covering the spread. But it doesn’t make it right.

This news was originally published on this post .

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