2025 NFL Draft: Here’s why QB Jaxson Dart has first-round buzz and Tyler Shough gained steam this draft cycle

Sports

add

Every NFL Draft cycle, players rise and fall on draft boards from preseason and midseason expectations. More talent evaluators, including high-level personnel members and coaches, are finally putting eyeballs onto prospects as the NFL season comes to a close and the collective Eye of Sauron turns toward the draft.

As more evaluators give their, well, evaluations, especially those who might have more sway than other members of the scouting staff, then opinions on players start to change. Players’ stocks gain more steam as coaches and general managers look at the players through a different lens and after the college season has completed, with more games and data to assess.

Advertisement

This happens at every position, especially at quarterback. And this year is no different.

In a class that lacks consensus everywhere, it can create wildly different boards and rankings from team to team and evaluator to evaluator. (Although it is safe to say that Miami’s Cam Ward is essentially the unanimous QB1 in this class and likely No. 1 pick, a justified selection that I wrote about recently.)

Quarterback is the position where teams and fans desperately cling to any hope that their guy can be the guy, with the associated desperation that comes from NFL teams trying to find a real player at that position. Hope and cope rhyme for a reason. It can cause evaluators to latch onto any glimmer of high-end play, arguing that it can be extrapolated once they get to work with them and chalking up any blemishes to youth, a college system, lack of talent, or whatever else.

Advertisement

As I continue to look at this year’s crop of quarterback prospects, I see two players who have gained steam as the football season ended and the draft season began: Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart and Louisville’s Tyler Shough.

I’ll first start with Dart, who landed in our final mock draft of Round 1.

Why could Jaxson Dart go in the 1st round?

Traits are a good starting point with Dart. He has a strong build (6-foot-2, 223 pounds) and is a good athlete and a quality runner of the football. He is willing to run between the tackles on designed runs and scrambles, and lower the shoulder on defenders (something he’s going to have to dial back, but it is endearing to watch). Dart runs with good vision, too, even pacing some of his runs to set up blocks before bursting through the line.

But running is, and should be, only a part of a quarterback’s draft profile. As a passer, Dart was an effective and explosive operator of Lane Kiffin’s money play offense. He is a consistent thrower who delivers a tight spiral and has the arm strength to complete those throws to all three levels. Dart had the highest rate of explosive passes (gains of 16 or more yards) among all FBS quarterbacks with 300 or more pass attempts in 2024. His 25.4% rate just above Ward’s 24.2%, both of which are well above the average of 16% among the 81 eligible quarterbacks.

Streaky was a word that came to mind when watching Dart. There were drives where he delivered three or four quality throws in a row that moved Ole Miss down the field in a hurry.

Dart might not be excellent, or even great, in any one area, but his traits are all above-average-to-good for a starting NFL quarterback, with the arm and speed to operate inside and out of the pocket.

Where should Jaxson Dart go in the NFL Draft?

Dart’s consistency — or his feeling that he needs to stay consistent — is also a drawback. Actually, consistent might not be the best word; perhaps cleanliness works better.

Advertisement

Dart seems to need things to be clean to be an effective operator. A clean read and a cleanish pocket so he can get through his full operation. It’s an operation that typically requires a hitch or two, which is sometimes a hitch too many, to deliver his throws.

While Dart has plenty of arm strength to deliver throws to the outside and can really drive on passes over the middle, his ability to push the ball can waver if he’s not able to hitch into the throw. Dart seems to need to be able to get through his operation with a clean launching pad to operate effectively. His accuracy and ability to deliver throws with pace seem to waver from uneven platforms.

When the read wasn’t completely clean, or Dart didn’t seem to anticipate post-snap defensive rotation, his operation would also start to short-circuit. Some results ended up OK; a scramble here, a throwaway there. But at other times Dart would turn down an easy answer, even on a concept that he’s comfortable with, to do something else. Sometimes it was to run around. Sometimes it was to slowly progress across the field. Sometimes it was to scramble for a nice gain. Sometimes it was to eat a bad sack.

The first play in the cutup above is an example of what makes me uneasy with some of Dart’s ability to work from the pocket, or at least to do so consistently. Even on a concept that Dart had experience running, and not just once or twice, but dozens of times in games, Dart would still look like a novice in shortcutting his progression and anticipating throws.

Advertisement

Here’s that exact same concept as the play above that Ole Miss ran multiple times in every game, both this season and in previous years.

Kiffin’s money play offense is a double-edged sword when evaluating and projecting Dart. Kiffin would do a great job of providing window dressing on a few core concepts that Ole Miss would run every week, and Dart was able to stand and fire some good passes when he saw exactly what he expected after the snap. But as defenses adjusted, or did something that Dart didn’t expect, the play could unravel and Dart could defer to being a runner too quickly, with his eyes coming down toward the pass rush and away from progressing through the play. He would say “no” to available options and decide to try his luck against a pass rush. And while Dart is a good athlete, he’s not a very creative thrower and as a result, would end up attempting to run his way out of the problem or eating a sack.

Dart’s sack rate and pressure-to-sack rates each shot through the roof in the second halves of games in 2024 as defenses adjusted to concepts. Dart had a 5% sack rate and 15.5% pressure-to-sack rate in first halves, which would rank 42nd and 33rd, respectively, among 81 qualifying FBS quarterbacks. In the second half and overtime of games in 2024, Dart had a 9% sack rate (ranking 73rd) and 24.6% pressure-to-sack rate (71st).

Advertisement

Defenses would adjust to the common concepts and/or bring blitzes as games went along. Like here against Oklahoma:

Dart shouldn’t be condemned because he was just trying to execute the plays that were called. But it did make his play feel robotic, and it made him go one-and-done when progressing on concepts. Kiffin’s offense was great at popping open a player to beat certain defensive looks, but it was simplistic. And on the plays that were repeat calls, Dart would have a bit too much fat on the progression of plays that he already had experience with.

This isn’t to say that Dart can never learn to get better at anticipating, and he flashes a few throws over the middle that show him getting the ball out with some anticipation. But there wasn’t exactly a heap of tight window throws to sift through (again, some credit here to Kiffin and staff).

Advertisement

I think it makes Dart more of a project than an early starter in the NFL, a player I would be comfortable taking somewhere on Day 2, preferably in Round 3, part of the grab bag of Day 2 quarterback prospects that I consider behind Ward. Still, there’s enough talent to intrigue a team in Round 1, which is where our mock has him going at No. 9 to the New Orleans Saints.

Dart has tools to work with. He has athleticism and flashes the high-level throws a starting quarterback in the NFL needs to make. Ideally he can sit behind a veteran to continue to iron out some of the kinks, and continue to sharpen his anticipation and understanding of an expanded playbook. There’s some fun stuff to work with here, but I would have reservations selecting Dart in the first round because of a steep learning curve for executing more layered concepts, and the lack of consistency he currently displays.

Now let’s look at Tyler Shough.

Why could Tyler Shough go in the 1st round?

Simply put, Shough can spin it.

Shough is a creative and flexible thrower who can contort his body and arm slot to get the ball off. He unlocks quick game and RPO concepts with his quick throwing motion and is able to get the ball on his teammates right as they’re working out of their breaks. Shough can deliver to all three levels and wins with his timing and ability to change arm angles.

Advertisement

Shough is also a good athlete at 6-5 and 219 pounds, but he doesn’t want to win as a scrambler. His athleticism shows up with his ability to be an excellent passer while on the move, and some of his best throws are when breaking the pocket to his left. This is atypical from a right-handed quarterback.

And although he doesn’t want to win this way (perhaps because of a past injury history, more on that in a bit), he can do some things as a runner, too! This was reflected by his 4.63-second 40-yard dash time at the NFL scouting combine.

Shough’s athleticism and, uh, experience (again, more on that in a second) also shows up with his ability to avoid sacks. Shough is constantly able to find outlets whenever feeling heated up by pressure in the pocket, stacking up neutral or positive plays where other quarterbacks might start taking on water.

The outlets can be down the field, too, with Shough showing off an understanding of the timing of a play and where the ball should be. He will shortcut reads (like on the backside dig above) and gets the ball out with anticipation. He shows the ability to throw his teammate open, like on this comeback route he throws well before his receiver breaks on his route and also before the pressure can get home:

It’s not the sexiest play in the world, but that’s a real NFL throw. And Shough has the arm to throw the ball all over the yard, with the creativity, athleticism and arm strength to push the ball even when his feet aren’t set, something that is a prerequisite to succeed in today’s NFL.

Where should Tyler Shoug go in the NFL Draft?

Well, let’s finally get to the elephant in the room: Shough is old for a quarterback prospect. He will turn 26 in the first month of his rookie season and was in the same high school recruiting class as Trevor Lawrence (who is already on his second contract in the NFL) and Justin Fields (who is already on his third team in the NFL). How do you gauge that?

Advertisement

Age is definitely a factor when evaluating athletes. It’s not the end all, be all, especially for quarterbacks although people are going a little too far with the “old quarterback prospect meta.” But it is definitely better to see significant play at a young, or at least young-ish, age.

Shough, who is No. 56 on Yahoo Sports’ consensus big board, would be the oldest first-round quarterback drafted since 2012 when the Cleveland Browns selected Brandon Weeden. (He was even older at 29. A Mike Holmgren heat check!)

Youth also makes for a more optimistic developmental timeline. You could argue that Shough was able to find outlets quickly in a college offense because he was in his seventh year of college and at his third school (Shough previously played at Texas Tech and Oregon). A Van Wilder as your signal-caller.

Advertisement

Why is Shough so old for a prospect? Because of the injuries he suffered in college, which included season-ending injuries like broken collarbones (plural) and a broken fibula. Injury concerns are completely team-dependent. Michael Penix Jr. went in the top 10 last year despite having multiple knee and shoulder injuries (and was also an older rookie quarterback at 24). It’s a sliding scale of ability and risk of whether those were chance things or there’s something about the player’s build that makes them more susceptible to injuries.

And Shough’s ability to avoid sacks also has a caveat. He is, perhaps because of his past injuries, allergic to taking contact. It helps Shough play with a great understanding of when to get rid of the ball and avoiding negative plays, and it should help Shough adjust well to the NFL since he already prefers to pull the ripcord on plays and doesn’t put himself in bad spots. But it can also limit the upside of some plays.

Shough is a good thrower on the move, although he sometimes opts to avoid entering creation mode to get rid of the ball; he ranked second among FBS quarterbacks last year in throwaways with 31. And sometimes that can lead to comical results as Shough gets rid of the football like a hot potato.

It’s really tough to weigh all the variables with Shough. His arm talent is undeniable and his best throws stack up with anybody in this class. But shouldn’t a quarterback who is that much older than the competition play this way? Shouldn’t he understand timing and where outlets are since he should be a multi-year professional by now? Is there any more development to tap into? Or is Shough a beneficiary of experience?

Advertisement

If Shough were 22, hell even 23, his throwing ability, sack avoidance, and overall athleticism would make him an intriguing name to look at in the back half of the first round. But he’s not. Those are the facts. It might seem like “only a couple of years,” but those are key years of an athlete’s development.

I keep referring to the group of quarterbacks after Cam Ward as the “Day 2 grab bag,” and Shough is a part of that group. I respect the arm talent, but I’m also realistic to his extended college history. How teams and evaluators consider the sliding scale of his ability, age and injury history will be interesting to watch unfold. Shough will be 30 by the time he would be on his second contract. Is it worth a high-level investment for a player that, in theory, has a flatter development curve?

There’s an NFL-level arm and athlete here with Shough. But who pulls the trigger on him, and where in the draft, will be fascinating to watch in a month.

This news was originally published on this post .

Share on

email

Previous

trending_flat

2025 College Basketball Crown: Predictions for FOX Super 6 by Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica

college-basketball

Next

trending_flat

Young Yankees making noise will help, but New York’s offense still depends on Aaron Judge

mlb