Todd Pletcher is the winningest trainer in Florida Derby history, and he will try to add to his total when the 2025 Florida Derby gets underway on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Pletcher’s horses have won the Florida Derby three out of the last four years, punching their ticket to the Run for the Roses in the process. He will have Disruptor competing in the $1 million Florida Derby 2025, and the three-year-old is 4-1 in the 2025 Florida Derby odds. Post time is 6:42 p.m. ET. Sovereignty is the 8-5 betting favorite among the 2025 Florida Derby horses, followed by Madaket Road at 7-2. With several talented three-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you’ll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Tampa Bay Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. Last November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 score.
For Saturday, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Florida Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Florida Derby predictions
One surprise: Menez is fading Sovereignty, even though he is the betting favorite at 8-5. The son of Into Mischief rallied to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park despite not being at 100% following a four-month layoff. The expert says the odds are too short for this Kentucky Derby contender, even though he should be better in his second start following the layoff.
“He clearly is the horse to beat, but is he good enough to win this race again at less than 100%, knowing the big goal-the Kentucky Derby-is on the horizon?” Menez told SportsLine. “I have my doubts.” You can see all of Menez’s 2025 Florida Derby bets here.
How to make 2025 Florida Derby picks
Instead, Menez’s top pick is a horse who “has been training up a storm” and “provides the best value.” He also is high on a double-digit longshot coming off a “sneaky good” effort. He is including these horses in his 2025 Florida Derby bets, and so should you. He’s sharing which horses to back at SportsLine.
So what horse wins the Florida Derby 2025? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Menez’s picks for the Florida Derby, all from the expert who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby and crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday, and find out.
2025 Florida Derby odds, contenders, post positions
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