A season-opening series between World Series contenders concludes on Saturday when the Houston Astros (1-1) host the New York Mets (1-1) in a rubber match. The Astros took the opener, 3-1, while the Mets answered with a 3-1 victory of their own on Friday as new $765 million acquisition Juan Soto hit his first home run in a Mets uniform. Spencer Arrighetti is on the hill for Houston. Griffin Canning will debut as the starting pitcher for the Mets.
First pitch is at 7:15 p.m. ET at Daikin Park in Houston. The latest Mets vs. Astros odds from DraftKings Sportsbook list Houston as the -124 favorite (risk $124 to win $100), while the over/under for total runs is 8.5. Before making any Astros vs. Mets picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 MLB season on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line betting picks (+699) that dates back to 2023. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Now, here are the model’s three best bets for Astros vs. Mets on Saturday:
Mets to win (+105)
The money line has been virtually even for the first two matchups, but this is the first chance to get a plus-money return on a New York win. The Mets have a great chance to pile up several runs against Arrighetti, who is coming off a tough 7-13 campaign where he had a 4.53 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Perhaps most concerning was his 21st percentile walk rate. In a series where offense has been limited thus far, the model projects that the Mets will take advantage of his lack of control. DraftKings Sportsbook is one of the books with the best return on this line at +105.
Over 8.5 total runs (-120)
Neither starting pitcher had great numbers in 2024. The model gives New York’s top hitters — Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos — all at least a 60% chance to record an RBI. Yordan Alvaraz and Christian Walker are given at least a 65% chance for an RBI for the Astros. The total has dropped from opening at 9, and the model is projecting 9.9 combined runs, as the Over hits in more than 60% of simulations.
Griffin Canning Over 3.5 strikeouts (-131)
While Canning’s ERA and WHIP inflated last season, he is coming off back-to-back 130-strikeout seasons, and he had a career-best 2.0 K/BB rate in 2024 with the Angels. Going back to the end of 2024, Canning cleared 3.5 strikeouts in six of his last seven starts and he averaged four per game last September. The Astros have already struck out 17 times through two games, the 10th-highest mark in Major League Baseball. The model is projecting 4.8 strikeouts for Canning, making this a Mets vs. Astros prop pick with a confidence rating of 4.5.
Want more MLB picks?
You’ve seen the best bets for Astros vs. Mets on Saturday. Now, get picks for every game from the model that enter the season on a 32-17 run on top-rated MLB run-line picks.
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