2025 March Madness betting report: ‘It’s a miracle we’ve done as well as we have’

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Playing Favorites

Over the Tournament’s first four days, upsets were relatively limited. Favorites won 36 of 48 games. That was a precursor of the second weekend.

Favorites went 8-0 in the Sweet 16 and 4-0 in the Elite Eight. Dating back to the second day of Round 2, on March 23, when favorite moneyline parlays really got rolling, chalk is on an 18-2 run straight up. 

That’s how you get four No. 1 seeds on the Final Four oddsboard.

And that’s how the public cashes out like mad.

Jay Kornegay, who spent nearly 40 years behind the counter, including the last 20 running The SuperBook in Las Vegas, summed it up well.

“Parity is the bookmaker’s best friend, and we just haven’t seen it this Tournament,” Kornegay said Sunday night. “Recreational bettors prefer to bet the better team — the favorite — and when we don’t get upsets, it’s going to make for long days.

“And a majority of those bets are connected by parlaying point spreads and moneylines.”

Kornegay recently semi-retired, handing over The SuperBook’s day-to-day reins to John Murray, who echoed his former boss’ sentiments.

“It’s tough for the house to do well with all these favorites winning. It made for some ugly parlay numbers for us,” Murray said.

Dogged Pursuit

Upset opportunities were there, in both the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. On Thursday night, No. 4 seed Arizona rallied from a 19-point second-half deficit vs. No. 1 seed and 9.5-point favorite Duke.

The Wildcats got within five at 91-86 with 1:52 remaining but couldn’t draw closer in a 100-93 loss.

Also, on Thursday, No. 10 seed Arkansas led No. 3 seed Texas Tech by double digits multiple times in the second half. But the Red Raiders, 5.5-point favorites, ultimately forged a 72-72 tie to force overtime, then won 85-83.

On Friday, No. 2 seed Michigan State trailed No. 6 Ole Miss 47-39 with 12:15 remaining. But the Spartans rallied for a 73-70 victory as 3.5-point favorites. And top seed Houston, an 8.5-point favorite, held off No. 4 seed Purdue 62-60.

In Saturday’s Elite Eight, another legitimate upset opportunity went begging. Texas Tech, a 6.5-point underdog vs. No. 1 seed Florida, led 75-66 with 3:14 left. But the Red Raiders got outscored 19-4 the rest of the way and lost 84-79.

“We got beat up pretty good on parlays in Week 2, which has been the theme of this Tournament,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said. “This Tournament is famous and loved because of all the upsets. So I am very surprised to have all favorites win this weekend.”

Bookmaker Bright Side

It wasn’t all great news for the betting masses and bad news for the bookmakers. 

Sure, there was no stopping moneyline favorite parlays from Thursday through Sunday. But South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews actually needed No. 1 seed Houston to win and cover against No. 2 seed Tennessee on Sunday. And the Cougars, 2.5-point favorites, did so with a 69-50 rout.

In addition, all four Friday night Sweet 16 games saw the Under hit on the total, and the Under cashed in three of the four Elite Eight games. The public betting masses love betting Overs, and those were in short supply from Friday through Sunday.

“We’re ahead for the weekend. But I think it’s a miracle we’ve done as well as we have, considering all these moneyline parlays, which just look like free money every day,” Andrews said.

Added Murray: “We managed to have a decent day Sunday. Tennessee was a very popular underdog play, and the game staying under the total was really good for us.”

Rich Zanco, head of college basketball trading for Caesars Sports, deemed it a give-and-take March Madness so far.

“We held our own on straight wagers. The public continues to excel with moneyline parlays,” Zanco said.

Looking Ahead

Also on the bright side of March Madness favorites running wild: It’s all No. 1 seeds for the national semifinals, the best of the best.

SEC rivals Florida and Auburn open the festivities at 6:09 p.m. ET Saturday, and the Gators are consensus 2.5-point favorites. Then it’s Houston vs. Duke at 8:49 p.m. ET, with the Blue Devils 4.5-point favorites.

“The upside of all these favorites winning is that we get a terrific Final Four. There should be great handle on these games,” Murray said.

Among the Final Four, Duke is favored to ultimately lift the trophy on April 7 in San Antonio. The way this NCAA Tournament has unfolded for favorites, it’d be no surprise if Cooper Flagg & Co. win it all.

Not that oddsmakers want that result. The Blue Devils are BetMGM’s largest liability in championship futures, and other sportsbooks are surely in a similar position.

“Having Duke cut down the nets would be a fitting end to this Tournament. It would also be very disappointing for the books,” Shelton said.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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