Fantasy Baseball: Jurickson Profar’s 80-game PED suspension makes Lars Nootbaar a prime waiver wire target

Those who got on Jurickson Profar ride can get right back off now. The 32-year-old was suspended 80 games Monday for violating the league’s PED policy.

So I guess that explains it, huh? We wondered how the former top prospect broke through with career highs across the board last season after 11 years of mediocrity, and for all the talk of a new leg kick and workout sessions with Fernando Tatis Sr., a chemical assist would make for a tidier explanation.

The timing is so suspicious that to suggest anything else would be pathetically naive, so while Profar’s statement says he passed each of his eight PED tests last season, I don’t imagine he’s getting much benefit of the doubt right now.

Truthfully, though, we don’t know the timeline of events or what he took and why. We just know that he failed a test and won’t be available for the next 80 games, not to mention the postseason. And while it’s easy to speculate and castigate in moments like this, it doesn’t help with the task at hand. You still have a Fantasy Baseball team to manage, after all.

To that end, here are three questions that need to be answered.

What do you do with Profar?

This one is actually pretty simple: You drop him. I don’t like to say it, but there’s no way around it. An 80-game suspension sidelines him until just before the All-Star game. That’s a long way away, and while there may be a handful of injured players that you’d be willing to stash for that length of time, Profar isn’t injured, which means he can’t go into an IL spot. He’d just have to occupy a spot on your bench for the next three-plus months, and it’s doubtful, verging on unbelievable, that you’d be able to play short-handed for that long, particularly in leagues with limited IL space. Maybe you try to hold out and make it six weeks before you’re forced to cave. What opportunities will you have passed over in the meantime?

And will he even be worth the wait? While Profar was a top-12 outfielder last year, regardless of format, nobody drafted him as such because the performance was so out of character for him. The most cynical among us would say that this suspension effectively crushes his Fantasy value. (Do I agree? Read on to find out!)

I understand that some platforms offer a general NA (not available) spot rather than a specific IL spot, and in such a scenario, sure, you could try to stash Profar. I imagine you’ll need that spot for some injured player somewhere down the line, but if it’s vacant now, it doesn’t hurt to try. Those who play in NL-only and Dynasty leagues may also have reason to cling to Profar, but in a conventional Fantasy scenario, you’re better off cutting your losses.

Who can you pick up instead?

For all the skepticism surrounding Profar’s 2024 performance, what made him an attractive mid-round target were the rare qualities he presented at that point in the draft, at least in theory. He was helpful in batting average, in theory. He was an on-base specialist, in theory. He was projected to bat atop one of the most star-studded lineups, at least until Ronald Acuna returns in mid-April.

So for 5×5-scoring leagues, Profar was a plus in batting average and runs while not be unhelpful in anything, and for points-scoring leagues, he was a sneaky stud … in theory, I will again stress. How can you make up for that on the waiver wire?

For starters, take a deep breath and remind yourself not that everything was likely to go right for Profar. It would have been great if it did, but the reason you were able to snag him in the Round 12-14 range is because nobody suspected it would. And frankly, if losing such a player costs you the league, you never had a chance anyway.

As for replacements, Lars Nootbaar is probably the closest facsimile to what Profar had to offer. Still available in nearly half of CBS Sports leagues, Nootbaar would be a godsend in points leagues especially, offering the same superlative plate discipline in the same leadoff role. He has long had latent power, having redoubled his efforts this offseason to elevate his the ball more, and is off to a nice start with two home runs already. If you were counting on Profar to be specifically Profar as opposed to a generically good outfielder, you should be adding Nootbaar posthaste.

Alternatively, Jung Hoo Lee is a good plate discipline guy batting in the upper third of the Giants lineup. He doesn’t offer as much power as Profar but could make up for it in points leagues with an even lower strikeout rate. Michael Conforto has actually seen his roster rate go down early on, probably because the Dodgers have shown some preference for sitting him against left-handers, but he’s still poised for big run and RBI numbers in that lineup and should find his way into more at-bats if he delivers on the potential he showed away from San Francisco last year. I also like TJ Friedl, who’s back to hitting leadoff for the Reds this year and was an 18-homer, 27-steal guy in 2023. His numbers fell off during an injury-plagued 2024, but the home run output, which was the most questionable part of his skill set, held steady.

If you need to look deeper, then Max Kepler would be my top choice. He’s in a loaded Phillies lineup, has worked with hitting coach Kevin Long to regain his power stroke after an injury-plagued 2024, and should be a plus for plate discipline. People are also sleeping on Andy Pages, who has an everyday role in the Dodgers lineup and power he can grow into, and both Trevor Larnach and Pavin Smith, who may have platoon concerns but also have data profiles as friendly as Nootbaar’s.

What should you expect when Profar returns?

This is more for the rubberneckers taking in the car wreck than those with something actually at stake, though I suppose there is some Dynasty application. I did say you should try to hold onto Profar in that format, after all.

But why? Isn’t this case closed? Hasn’t he been exposed as a fraud, the product of pharmaceuticals rather than an honest day’s work? History suggests that’s rarely the case with PED violators, for as suspicious as the timing is in this particular case.

A look back through the players who have received a PED suspension reveals shockingly few instances of the player simply turning a pumpkin thereafter. Everth Cabrera is perhaps the purest example, but there was basically zero thump in his bat even at the time of the suspension, which suggests he wasn’t long for this league regardless. Chris Colabello is another cautionary tale, but he’s an even more unconventional case, being a long-time independent league player who didn’t get a shot in the minors until his late 20s. He made it up with the Twins in 2013, found success with the Blue Jays in 2015 — hitting .321 with 15 homers and an .886 OPS in 101 games — and then was suspended early in 2016. He didn’t amount to much thereafter, but by that point, he was already in his mid-30s.

Turns out the vast majority of the players to be suspended for PEDs were either good for a long time or never good at all. There aren’t many cases of a player coming off an outlier season and then being suspended, as is true for Profar. Melky Cabrera in 2012 would seem to be the closest comp. He was hitting .346 with a.906 OPS when he was suspended in August of that year and was indeed bad when he returned in April 2013. Turns out he was playing with a tumor on his spinal cord, though. He had it removed prior to the 2014 season and went on to deliver a 110 OPS+ over the next four years compared to a 93 OPS+ in the years preceding the PED suspension. It was a PED suspension that began Cabrera’s stint of Fantasy usefulness, in other words, rather than ending it.

Which is to say … I don’t think this suspension says much about Profar’s future value. It may be that his 2024 was a fluke, but that was always a possibility. The history of PED suspensions doesn’t add any conclusiveness to it, so if you have Profar in a future-minded league, particularly if it’s at an sort of discount (which seems likely), you’ll want to wait and see how his second half plays out, if at all possible.