Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Kris Bubic, Jordan Hicks shine, plus who to add following breakout performances

We might have gotten our first two “rush out and add them” pitching performances of the season Monday. Not that these were the first two impressive performances of the season – Mackenzie Gore and Jesus Luzardo both had pretty eye-opening showings in their first turns through the rotation, for instance – but Monday was the first time pitchers who were widely available in Fantasy leagues showed out.

So, who should you go out and add: Kris Bubic or Jordan Hicks?

Well, in most leagues, that’s going to be pretty straightforward: Bubic is rostered in 60% of CBS Fantasy leagues, while Hicks is rostered in just 15% of leagues. So, many of you won’t have a choice to make here. 

But I would prioritize Bubic in any league where both are available because I have a hunch he’s going to be really valuable if he stays healthy this season. In his debut against the Brewers Monday, he made it through six shutout innings allowing just three hits and a pair of walks, while striking out eight. He did it mostly thanks to his four-seam fastball, which sat at 92.5 mph – down 0.5 mph from last season, when he pitched in relief, but up from a previous career-high of 91.9 mph back in 2022. That four-seamer has always generated pretty good swing-and-miss results, but it played up in relief last season, and with the added velocity, it’s not unreasonable to think he might be able to manage a 25% whiff rate with it – that would be a career-best mark as a starter, though down nearly 10 percentage points from last season. 

He didn’t need much beyond the four-seamer in this one, as he did a good job keeping it elevated, but we’ve seen flashes from the rest of the arsenal, too, especially the changeup. There’s a deep arsenal here with multiple above-average pitches, and I don’t think this was a one-off – I think we might be witnessing the start of the breakout for Bubic.

I’m less confident of that with Hicks, but then I don’t have to be confident in it to believe he’s worth adding when he’s available in 85% of leagues. But if you’re remembering back to Hicks getting some hype last April, I’d suggest you take a second look at what he did Monday, because this isn’t just about the results.

Though to be clear, the results were pretty good! Facing a good Astros lineup, Hicks allowed just one hit over six shutout innings of his own, striking out two while walking just two. And this wasn’t just getting lucky, or anything – he gave up some hard contact, but almost none of it was hit anywhere it could do damage, with only two batted balls against him generating an expected batting average better than .330. 

How’d he do it? Unlike last year, where he showed off a deeper arsenal with his move to the rotation, Hicks did it this time by just doing what he did as a reliever: He spammed wicked high-90s sinkers the whole dang game. Hicks threw his sinker 67% of the time, and it worked because he sat at 98 mph with the pitch, up 3.5 mph from last season.

And he never ran out of gas. Facing Yordan Alvarez for his final batter of the night, the radar gun showed this for Hicks: 98.9, 98.7, 98.2, and 97.7 mph, the latter of which led to a lineout to end the outing for him. At least on Monday, Hicks didn’t need a deeper arsenal.

But it’s there. Last season, he lowered his sinker usage to just 51.5%, leaning otherwise on his sweeper (24.1% usage) and his splitter (19.1%). Both pitches had an expected wOBA of .270 or lower and a whiff rate of 37.6% or higher, which is excellent in both regards. If Hicks can sustain this velocity as a starter, this might be the most exciting version of him we’ve ever seen. 

If you’re skeptical about Hicks, I don’t blame you. I’m skeptical, too, and I don’t think he’s someone who just needs to be rostered in every single league – though I do think Bubic does. But after being pretty unenthused about Hicks even when he was getting solid results early last season, I think he’s someone worth getting excited about, at least as far as early-season waiver-wire adds go. 

Below, you’ll find more waiver-wire targets but if you’re looking for targets to consider after losing Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension for a failed PED test, go to this piece from Scott White before you do anything else. I don’t have much to add here – even the idea that this explains why Profar added so much to his average exit velocity feels like an overly simple explanation for something that is probably more complicated than that – except that it’s a bummer we won’t get to see whether Profar could sustain his breakout from a year ago. Oh, and the Braves could suddenly be in some trouble, at least until Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña are ready to return. 

Now, let’s get to everything else you need to know from Monday’s action around MLB: 

Tuesday’s top waiver-wire targets

Here’s who we’re looking to add coming out of Monday’s action: 

Lars Nootbaar, OF, Cardinals (64%) – The talent has always been there for Nootbaar, so let’s just hope he actually stays healthy this time. Nootbaar went deep Monday for the second time this season, and he now has two hits in three of the first four games, with only one strikeout in 19 trips to the plate. Nootbaar is probably better suited for a H2H points league, which is a shallower format, but if he lives up to his potential, he’s worth starting there, too. Let’s add him everywhere, just in case. He’s a ready-made Profar replacement.

Heston Kjerstad, OF, Orioles (30%) – With Colton Cowser going on the IL with a fractured thumb – don’t dive into first base, kids! – Kjerstad is suddenly in line for significant playing time for the Orioles. Kjerstad has had a long road from No. 2 overall pick to now, but he showed some pop in the majors last season and has 26 homers in 132 career Triple-A games. He started against a lefty Monday and could be a big part of the Orioles’ plans until Cowser gets back. And after that? Who knows, life finds a way. 

Hunter Goodman, C, Rockies (20%) – Pretty early on in Spring Training, the Rockies announced that Jacob Stallings would be their starting catcher, but that has only happened once in the first four games of the season. Goodman has been the starter behind the plate in the other three, and in the one game Stallings did start, Goodman was the DH. It helps that he’s swinging a hot bat, with a hit in each game, including his first homer of the season off Cristopher Sanchez Monday. Goodman has rare power upside for a catcher, and if he’s going to keep playing this often, he’s a must-roster player in any two-catcher leagues. 

Gavin Sheets, 1B, Padres (9%) – It’s probably just a random hot streak from a player who has had a few before, but Sheets hit .315/.373/.704 this spring after a swing change and now has seven hits in five games, three of them for extra bases after Monday’s two-double game. In deeper leagues, he’s worth a look as a CI option. 

Brady Singer, SP, Reds (58%) – I’m not much of a believer in Singer, at least as an impact arm. But there’s a relatively high floor here, and he’ll occasionally put together starts like this where he looks like more than just a floor play. I don’t expect four whiffs on each of his four-seamer and sinker to be much of a thing every time out, but I do think he’ll be usable moving forward – especially with the schedule lining up so he may face the Brewers, Pirates, Mariners, and Marlins in his next four starts.