Can Edmonton Oilers forwards turn around their inconsistent season?

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During his NHL career, Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid built a reputation for scoring and outscoring at five-on-five. On the power play, he had even more impact. McDavid finding the scoresheet was inevitable from 2015 through fall 2024.

McDavid has scored well this season, but isn’t at the same levels reached in the past. His points per 60 at five-on-five has fallen year over year (from 3.5 to 2.47) and is currently the lowest total of his career, via Natural Stat Trick.

Many Oilers are badly off the pace of their own established performance levels, and well shy of expectations. With the season winding down, here’s a look at the forwards who have mostly undelivered, one who rose to new heights and a few who contributed at the lower end of the roster.

For our purposes, I’m using my reasonable expectations predictions from last August at The Athletic.

Connor McDavid

Criticizing the world’s best hockey player in a season he’s delivering around 1.5 points per game is brazen. However, the expectation was created by McDavid’s own brilliance in previous seasons. During 2023-24, his points per game (1.74) was higher than the 2024-25 prediction. His 2022-23 season was even more impressive (1.87), suggesting the good times were likely to roll unabated for several seasons.

The prediction took age (he’s 28) and slight erosion into account by docking a few points off his total. It wasn’t enough.

Does this mean we have seen peak McDavid? It’s possible, while also being unthinkable. McDavid’s brilliance is the best show on ice, and a fall from his peak before a Stanley Cup victory is not a story fans want to witness.

Logic and reason suggest it would be unwise to assume a steady decline with no surges in his career bell curve. We are still talking about the world’s best, and he could tear through the league for the next several seasons at a higher level than we are witnessing this year.

It does mean that if the Oilers plan on winning the Stanley Cup in the McDavid era, management will want to improve the lineup materially this summer. The days of McDavid covering all of the roster issues with his incredible talent may be coming to an end.

Leon Draisaitl

Draisaitl reached expectations in all categories this year, and has exceeded the goals and points projections. Much of the conversation surrounding his Hart Trophy bona fides is attached to his exceptional play when McDavid isn’t at his best, or is out of the lineup completely.

There are examples of this phenomenon in NHL history. In the mid-1980s, Mark Messier’s increased importance to the dynasty Oilers was in evidence across the entire statistical canvas. His scoring increased, his physical play had a massive impact, and by 1988 (when Gretzky was traded), it was possible to imagine a Stanley Cup with Messier as captain. It came in 1990.

More recently, Evgeni Malkin has served in a similar role when Sidney Crosby was unable to answer the bell for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Draisaitl’s impact across all areas of the game is pronounced this season. He’s vital to the Oilers’ success in a way not previously in evidence. If and when the Oilers win the team’s sixth Stanley Cup, the McDavid-Draisaitl dynamic may be closer to shared than a clear No. 1 player.

The other key forwards

The only wingers on the club to deliver more offence than expected were Connor Brown, Corey Perry and Mattias Janmark. The forwards, Draisaitl aside, were simply unable to drive offensive success. In this way, 2024-25 has been shocking for the players and the organization.

The offensive magic wand doesn’t work as in the past.

How bad has it been? The team is averaging 3.23 goals per game this season while the projection suggested 3.62 goals per game. That’s a massive gap. Meanwhile, the projected GA per game (2.57) was also lower than the actual number (2.93), leaving a most unsatisfactory statistical record based on expectations.

Here’s a look, via hockey-reference, at the last four seasons of goals for and goals against per game by the Oilers.

The Oilers this season have scored an above average number of goals, and surrendered fewer than league average. However, the outscoring of past winters is fading, from a peak of 56 percent in 2022-23 to the current total of 52 percent.

The Oilers coaching staff have more control over the game using better structure, but the freewheeling style is gone. So are the ample goal totals.

Bottom line

The Oilers could win the Stanley Cup this spring. The suppression style might allow the team more success in tight games; those kinds of contests are more common in the postseason when everything is on the line.

On the other hand, champion teams who play more defensive styles often have an ace goaltender who steals games. That’s not the Edmonton model.

The offence is no longer at the outstanding levels of two years ago. The goals against have been reduced, but the goals scored are down.

Fans are divided on the root cause, and in fact, it’s likely several forces have conspired against the high-flying Oilers. Injuries, the loss of speed up front, defensive miscues ending up in the back of the net and goaltending that’s off the pace compared to previous seasons are all contributing to the current situation.

Two things are clear. It was impossible to accurately predict this fall year over year, and despite the anger directed toward the goaltenders, this team is off the pace in scoring goals, and that’s a major contributor to the current situation.

If this team makes a quick exit from the postseason, the summer may bring another reckoning. Fans could see several new faces in feature roles.

The hangover from the 2024 Stanley Cup Final loss is nearing one year in length. There’s little sign of recovery from a roster that’s injured, no longer in possession of elite scoring strength and more reliant than ever on mediocre goaltending.

The reasonable expectations of August are a distant bell. This edition of the Oilers does not resemble previous incarnations.

The organization has several impact players out with injuries. When the entire roster is healthy, the holes that have been so prevalent all year may disappear. It seems unlikely that things will fall into place, but the Oilers are the only team in the NHL with McDavid and Draisaitl.

It has been a decidedly unreasonable season in Edmonton. Can this team catch lightning in a bottle for eight weeks this spring? We’re about to find out.

(Photo: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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