- Cincinnati built its offensive foundation in the first round: Drafting Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase in back-to-back years has kept the Bengals as a yearly contender.
- Trouble in Tennessee: The Titans own this year’s first overall pick, but their recent draft history is a big reason they sunk that low in the first place.
Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
Selecting star players in the first round of NFL drafts is crucial to any team’s success. If a franchise can find a superstar, regardless of position, it can quickly turn around its fortunes. If a team goes several years without finding impact players, it can get dragged into a cycle of mediocrity or worse.
Using PFF grading and Wins Above Replacement as barometers, we can examine which teams have had the most success with drafting players in the first round. We’ll use those tools to look at the past five seasons and add some context as to why certain teams sit at either the top or bottom of these leaderboards.
PFF WAR
With the caveat that WAR totals are heavily tied to quarterback success, we can determine which teams have added the most and least value above replacement-level players over the past five first rounds of NFL drafts.
Most PFF WAR Accrued by First-Round Picks Since 2020
Given the quarterbacks that the five teams above have drafted, it’s not surprising to see that they have racked up more PFF WAR than the rest of the league. All of these teams have been to the postseason since drafting their franchise quarterback, including the Bengals, who were mere minutes from a Super Bowl victory at the end of the 2021 season. In fact, by this measure, Joe Burrow has been the second most valuable player in the NFL since 2020, behind only Patrick Mahomes.
It isn’t just about quarterbacks, though. The Chargers have also found three productive offensive linemen along the way. Tua Tagovailoa has been a solid player, when healthy, but the Dolphins have also added a star receiver, a starting right tackle and two pass rushers with a ton of potential.
Even the team in fifth place, the Houston Texans, has used its picks to flip its fortunes in short order. Bear in mind that the Texans made three top-three overall selections across the 2022 and 2023 NFL drafts. Hitting on all three of Derek Stingley Jr., C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. in that time immediately put them on the precipice of AFC contention.
Teams that just missed the top five include the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys. The Falcons may soon find themselves higher on this board since 2020 once Michael Penix Jr. gets more reps, but the selections of A.J. Terrell, Bijan Robinson and Drake London have put them in a good spot to succeed if Penix pans out. Dallas is carried by superstars CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons, as well as standout left guard Tyler Smith.
Least PFF WAR Accrued by First-Round Picks Since 2020
| Rank | Team | WAR | Picks |
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders | -0.07 | Henry Ruggs, Damon Arnette, Alex Leatherwood, Tyree Wilson, Brock Bowers |
| 2 | Tennessee Titans | 0.25 | Isaiah Wilson, Caleb Farley, Treylon Burks, Peter Skoronski, JC Latham |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | 0.42 | Jared Verse |
| 4 | New Orleans Saints | 0.61 | Cesar Ruiz, Payton Turner, Chris Olave, Trevor Penning, Bryan Bresee, Taliese Fuaga |
| 5 | Indianapolis Colts | 0.72 | Kwity Paye, Anthony Richardson, Laiatu Latu |
With the Rams as the exception, four of the five teams in the above list have not made the postseason since at least 2021. This list says a lot about the Raiders and Titans, both of whom finished behind the Rams despite Los Angeles making Jared Verse their first selection in the first round since Jared Goff in 2016.
The Saints also predictably find themselves near the bottom of these WAR totals, given their struggles in the trenches as a result of failing to draft impact players. Indianapolis is a perfect example of a team that hasn’t made many picks and drafted a quarterback early who has yet to pan out.
Some others near the bottom are the Cleveland Browns, who have made only two first-round selections since 2020 due to the Deshaun Watson trade; the New York Giants, who have seen extremely mixed results over the past five years; and the San Francisco 49ers, who didn’t get much production from Trey Lance and Javon Kinlaw.
PFF Grade: Offense
While PFF WAR tends to lean into quarterback production, we can balance that out by using cumulative PFF grading. There will still be a couple of familiar teams in this group, but it’s much more balanced in favor of teams who have gotten star-caliber production at other positions.
Best Teams in PFF Offensive Grade by First-Round Picks Since 2020
| Rank | Team | PFF Grade | Picks |
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 95.9 | Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Amarius Mims |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | 95.1 | Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, Jordan Addison, J.J. McCarthy |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | 92.2 | Penei Sewell, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs |
| T-4 | Atlanta Falcons | 91.3 | Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Michael Penix Jr. |
| T-4 | Dallas Cowboys | 90.1 | CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Smith, Tyler Guyton |
The Bengals and Chargers feature again due to stellar quarterback play from Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, respectively, throughout their five-year careers. Both passers should continue to allow their teams to contend for a championship as long as their front offices build out their respective rosters properly, which has been a challenge in both cases.
If the goal of the first round of the draft is to add stars, the rest of the teams in this top five have done well. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison form one of the best receiver tandems in the NFL. The Lions have drafted premier skill position talent as well as arguably the best tackle in football in Penei Sewell. Atlanta and Dallas have also done an excellent job of selecting impact offensive players.
On the other end of the spectrum are teams that have struggled to find offensive talent.
Worst Teams in PFF Offensive Grade by First-Round Picks Since 2020
Note: The Los Angeles Rams did not draft an offensive player in the first round in this timeframe
Four of these five teams are picking within the first eight slots of this year’s draft. The fifth, Indianapolis, is in limbo due to the lack of health and consistent production from quarterback Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in 2023.
Teams that are continuously unstable on offense have a hard time winning football games. These squads have combined for only one playoff appearance in the past three seasons, which came from the 2023 Browns with Joe Flacco at the helm down the stretch.
PFF Grade: Defense
Finding impact players on defense is just as important as doing so on offense. The Philadelphia Eagles have proven as much in recent years, particularly with first-round selections Nolan Smith, Jalen Carter and Quinyon Mitchell. Each, plus many others from later rounds, was a key component in the team’s recent Super Bowl victory.
The Eagles’ defensive first-round picks have accrued a cumulative 84.7 PFF overall grade for the team since 2020, which actually sits just outside the top five among NFL teams.
Best Teams in PFF Defensive Grade by First-Round Picks Since 2020
Once again, if a team finds superstars in the first round, they will generally enjoy success. Despite Mazi Smith’s struggles, Micah Parsons has been so valuable for the Cowboys that he may soon be the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback. Jared Verse has eased the Rams’ concerns about replacing Aaron Donald’s production. As for the other three teams, it could be argued that Sauce Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr. and Pat Surtain II are the NFL’s three best cornerbacks in some order.
A look at the bottom five teams in defensive grading of their selected first-rounders will display quite the opposite effect that most of the above teams have seen.
Worst Teams in PFF Defensive Grade by First-Round Picks Since 2020
Note: The Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers did not draft a defensive player in the first round in this timeframe
This group of teams combines ineffective selections with a general neglect of the defensive side of the ball in the first round. Tennessee picked a first-round defensive player just once in the past five drafts, and the team got just 164 snaps out of him. The Chargers are only a year removed from losing 12 games as a result of their poor defensive efforts. New Orleans, San Francisco and Las Vegas have all seen their trench play decline in recent years as a result of ineffective draft picks.
The ability to acquire star talent in the first round of a draft isn’t the only thing that makes a successful NFL team, but it certainly goes a long way toward building a Super Bowl contender. An inability to find productive players early only exacerbates a team’s problems in future seasons.
This news was originally published on this post .
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