We have finally arrived at the biggest stage in college basketball, the 2025 Final Four, and after an NCAA Tournament that started trending towards chalk from the earliest rounds, history has been made yet again with just the second-ever time with all four No. 1 seeds making it to the tournament’s final weekend.
What the tournament has produced with this Final Four filled with No. 1 seeds is the stakes for this year’s champion to have endured one of the toughest title runs of all time. Whether it’s Auburn, Duke, Houston or Florida cutting down the nets in San Antonio, that team will have earned the honor of being crowned champion after surviving two rounds against other top-four talent. And this is all coming after each of the Final Four participants had to face either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the Elite Eight and either a No. 4 or No. 5 seed in the Sweet 16. There is “bracket luck” to be found with this bunch, just a foursome of college basketball teams that have been operating consistently at the top of the sport for most of the season.
Saturday’s festivities will get started with an All-SEC battle between Auburn and Florida in the early game (6:09 p.m. ET), bringing back into focus the Tigers as the regular season champs and Gators as the tournament champs from a conference that rated as one of the best all-time and set a new record with 14 teams into the field of 68. Then in the night cap it will be Duke going toe-to-toe with Houston (8:49 p.m. ET) as the nation’s No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense collide, putting CBS Sports Player of the Year Cooper Flagg in the spotlight against arguably his toughest competition in college to date.
Of course with games of this stake and magnitude there’s going to be differing opinions on the picks to win. We’ve assembled selections both straight up and against the spread from our expert picks panel, and offered a breakdown of each of Saturday’s Final Four national semifinals.
Odds via SportsLine Consensus | All times Eastern
(1) Auburn vs. (1) Florida
6:09 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live: Auburn has had a run of slow starts recently, except when they faced another slow-starting team in Michigan State. The Tigers are 1-7 against the first half spread in the last eight games and 4-11 in their last 15, a span that stretches back to the loss to Florida on Feb. 8. The Gators, meanwhile, have tied or led at halftime in each of their last 10 games and can get their bench involved early to test Auburn’s depth.
The Bruce Pearl-Todd Golden familiarity could produce a bit of a stalemate first half — the First Half Under 76.5 is also worth a look — but I’m counting on Auburn to pivot to its best play and counter-punches after halftime. Florida has closed well at the end of the 1st half a few times in this postseason run, “winning” the final 10 minutes of the second half in five out of seven games between the SEC and NCAA Tournament, and those habits should power a halftime lead for the Gators. Pick: Florida 1H -1.5
(1) Duke vs. (1) Houston
8:49 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live: For all the deserved attention that goes to Houston’s defense there is the somewhat less discussed aspect of Duke’s defense, which ranks fifth nationally overall in defensive efficiency and second only to Houston among Final Four participants. This is a group that just held Alabama 25 points below their season scoring average in an 85-65 win and have allowed more than 70 points just twice in their last 15 games (since Feb. 12).
Now, there are outcomes where Houston can win the game and still end up going under this team total but even those scenarios speak to a game that is played at a slower pace with a grinding style. Duke’s length at the rim is set up to limit Houston’s ability to get easy buckets, which in turn will contribute to lower scoring overall. Pick: Houston Team Total Under 66.5
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