The 2025 NCAA Tournament will reach its conclusion on Monday, and the national championship will come down to the Florida Gators and Houston Cougars. Both teams were No. 1 seeds when the 2025 March Madness brackets were unveiled, and both programs have matching 35-4 records entering Monday’s matchup. The Cougars are seeking their first national championship in program history, while Florida can win its third championship overall but first since going back-to-back in 2006-07.
Tipoff from the Alamodome in San Antonio is set for 8:50 p.m. ET. The Gators are 1-point favorites in the latest Florida vs. Houston odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 141. Before making any Houston vs. Florida picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from SportsLine expert Thomas Casale.
Casale joined SportsLine in 2024 and promptly went 28-14-1 (67%) in CBB, returning $1,215 to $100 players. He’s now 61-38 (+1812) in his last 99 official college basketball picks on SportsLine, and he is 6-1 (+500) on his past seven picks in games involving Florida. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.
Now, he has set his sights on Florida vs. Houston and just locked in his March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Houston vs. Florida:
- Houston vs. Florida spread: Florida -1
- Houston vs. Florida over/under: 141 points
- Houston vs. Florida money line: Florida -115, Houston -105
- FLA: The Over has hit in 11 of Florida’s last 12 games
- HOU: The Cougars currently own the nation’s longest winning streak at 18 games.
- Houston vs. Florida picks: See who to back at SportsLine
Why Florida can cover
The No. 1 seed in the West Region began its 2025 NCAA Tournament with a blowout win against Norfolk State and then outlasted two-time defending national champions UConn in the second round. In the Sweet 16, the Gators handily beat Maryland and then clinched its spot in the Final Four with a comeback win over Texas Tech. They beat No. 1 overall seed Auburn in San Antonio on Saturday to advance to the national championship game.
Walter Clayton Jr. poured in 34 points in the victory, and the All-American guard is averaging 24.6 points per game during Florida’s tourney run. The Gators have covered the spread in 14 of their last 18 games entering Monday’s national championship game, including a cover as 2.5-point favorites over Auburn on Saturday. See which team to pick here.
Why Houston can cover
Meanwhile, the Cougars bested SIU-Edwardsville, Gonzaga, Purdue, Tennessee and Duke on their way to the 2025 NCAA Tournament title game. LJ Cryer played all 40 minutes in the win over Duke and led the team with 26 points on 8-for-14 shooting, while J’Wan Roberts also posted a double-double with 11 points and 12 rebounds.
Houston leads Division I in points allowed per game (58.5) this season. The Cougars also rank second in the nation in defensive rating (92.5) as well as first in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency (87.3). The Cougars grind out possessions, which is a big reason why they’ve covered the spread in five of their last seven games. See which team to pick here.
How to make Houston vs. Florida picks
Casale has evaluated the Florida vs. Houston matchup from every angle and is leaning over on the point total. He’s also found a critical X-factor that has him jumping on one side of the spread. You can only find out what it is, and see which side of the spread to back, at SportsLine.
So who wins Houston vs. Florida, and what critical X-factor do you need to know about before the 2025 NCAA national championship game? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Florida vs. Houston spread to jump on, all from the expert on a 61-38 roll on his college basketball picks this season, and find out.
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