A Title Decades in the Making: Houston Cougars Poised to Cut Down the Nets

There’s a generation of middle-aged American men that will always believe there’s no better fraternity in the world than Phi Slama Jama. They’re still waiting for Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler and the rest of Houston’s dominant dunkers to be rewarded with their rightful NCAA title.

The generation before that? They thrilled to the sight of Elvin Hayes and Houston challenging Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (then Lew Alcindor) and UCLA before massive crowds at the Astrodome and elsewhere.

Alas, Phi Slama Jama came up short in back-to-back NCAA title games (1983–84), and “Big E” came up short against UCLA in back-to-back Final Fours (1968–69).

On Monday in San Antonio, with Hayes sitting courtside as Houston’s radio analyst and Olajuwon sitting courtside as basketball royalty, the Houston Cougars will finally bring home the school’s first NCAA championship after six missed Final Four opportunities.

Empirically, it doesn’t make sense. Oddsmakers say Florida is a 1.5-point favorite. If you look back at the last nine NCAA champions on KenPom.com, all nine were ranked better on offense than defense.

Florida features the nation’s ninth-most efficient defense and second-most efficient offense (128.8 points per 100 possessions), which also ranks as the third-most efficient offense during the KenPom era that stretches back to 1996–97.

Houston, meanwhile, boasts the nation’s No. 10 offense and the No. 1 defense (87.3 points per 100 possessions). As we just said above, defense doesn’t usually win championships — but the Cougars just solved the most efficient offense in KenPom history.

If they can do enough to slow down All-American Cooper Flagg and two other NBA lottery picks, they can do enough to slow down All-American Walter Clayton Jr. and Florida’s other high-fliers.

Now, we know what you’re thinking: Saturday night deserves to be known as an all-time Duke collapse — not an all-time Houston comeback. But take a look at this:

Duke’s first 30 minutes: 58 points, 20-of-44 from the field (45.5%), two turnovers.
Duke’s last 10 minutes: Nine points, 1-of-9 from the field, five turnovers.

That’s Houston locking down defensively. Now take a look at this:

Duke’s first 30 minutes: Nine offensive rebounds on 25 misses.
Duke’s last 10 minutes: One offensive rebound on nine misses.

That’s Houston locking down the boards — and that’s before we mention the Cougars’ five offensive rebounds in the final 5:10 that turned into six points. Now take a look at this:

@OptaSTATS tweeted this overnight:

Over the last 25 seasons, there have been 7,859 instances of a Division I team trailing by 5+ points at halftime at least five times in a single season. Only one of those 7,859 has come back to win every single one of those games.
That one team is Houston — in 2024–25 (5–0).

See, this is just what Houston does.

On Jan. 25 at Allen Fieldhouse, the Cougars trailed 79–73 with 18 seconds left in the first overtime — and Kansas was at the line for two free throws. The Jayhawks had a 99.6% chance to win. But Emanuel Sharp hit a 3-pointer (sound familiar?), Houston forced a steal on the press (sound familiar?) for another 3-pointer and went on to win in double overtime.

So when the Cougars were down six with 1:14 to go against Duke — and the Blue Devils had the ball and a fresh shot clock — it was practically like Houston was already winning. Everyone expected Houston coach Kelvin Sampson to order a foul and extend the game as long as possible. But he trusted his guys — and they trusted him.

“This whole year, I’ve been trying to stay off social media and stuff like that,” said fifth-year senior guard LJ Cryer, who led Houston with 26 points Saturday. “I try just to listen to Coach Sampson, and he believed we were the best team in the tournament, so that’s the only person I listened to.”

“Coach always tells us just keep playing, fight, never quit,” said sixth-year senior forward J’Wan Roberts, who hit two free throws with 19.6 seconds to give Houston its first second-half lead. “If you lose the game, and you didn’t quit, you didn’t really lose. Going into games like this, you never want to go down, but it happens. But once you don’t quit and you believe, anything can happen.”

Florida will go on runs Monday night. Like Flagg on Saturday night, Clayton might turn out to be the best player on the floor. But if the Cougars control the tempo — and they will — they will cut down the nets. In their home state. With Hayes, Olajuwon and a whole fraternity of former Coogs exulting in a job finally done.