Cooper Flagg misses final shot, but does it mean he’s not clutch? Here’s how we decide the argument

With 17.2 seconds remaining in Saturday night’s Final Four game between No. 1 seeds Duke and Houston, Duke — which led by 14 points earlier in the second half — found itself trailing by one point and needed a bucket in the clutch. Somewhat predictably, the Blue Devils turned to National Player of the Year Cooper Flagg, whose shot attempt clanked off the front iron and into Houston’s arms.

The rest was history. Duke didn’t score the remainder of the game and its meltdown was complete. Houston advanced, winning 70-67.

Flagg getting the ball was foreseeable in that moment (can you imagine the reaction if Duke coach Jon Scheyer used his best player as a decoy and it didn’t work?) but it was also the right call for several reasons. (More on that in a sec.)

After the game Duke players backed Scheyer’s decision to give Flagg the rock. This wasn’t some regurgitated party line, either. Flagg had 27 points and made more shots than any player in the game on either side. He earned the chance to make the potential game-swinging play in that moment.

“Coop had the hot hand.” Duke wing Kon Knueppel said. “Just won Player of the Year, got to give him the ball. He’s a great, great player.”

The benefit of hindsight only further justifies the decision. In the final five minutes of second halves and in overtime games with the score within five points, Flagg’s stats are as follows: 8-of-13 shooting, eight rebounds, two assists. Accounting for free throws (18-20 in such situations), he scored 36 points in those moments.

Zoom out to the final 10 minutes of second halves this season and the stats are nearly as good. This season he accrued 171 points on 49 of 91 shooting, 12 of 21 3-point shooting, 31 assists, 21 turnovers, 46 rebounds and 15 blocks in that specific timeframe.

Duke finished the season No. 1 in scoring margin so those numbers could have been more inflated if he hadn’t been part of so many blowouts. He averaged 30.6 minutes per game on the season — the fewest by a Player of the Year winner since Zion Williamson’s one-and-done Duke season in 2018-19. But with the data we have, we think Flagg carved out a fair reputation as a “clutch” player. 

Hindsight also looks kindly on Flagg’s shot selection. CBBAnalytics.com’s heat chart data shows Duke’s most efficient shots outside of looks at the rim came from the sweet spot where Flagg fired.

Flagg was also the right man to get that nod. Data from the same website glows a deep red right where his shot was released. He shot 52.6% from that area this season — a full 13 percentage points above the Division I average in that same range and 9.5 percentage points above Duke’s team average from that range. 

In general, I think the idea of giving the ball to your best player in late-game situations is a dated concept. Flagg — and players of his ilk — warrant immense attention and coverage from defenses. So a contested shot from a star may be less efficient than, say, a more open look from Tyrese Proctor or Sion James.

But with Houston physically imposing its will late in the game it’s hard to argue Duke didn’t call the most efficient play for its most efficient player. Analytically, Flagg got the most favorable look and spot. 

He just missed. That doesn’t take away from the clutch shots he made all season. It just means he was the face of a well-executed play that didn’t finish with a basket. That’s basketball sometimes. Had he made it and Duke held on, Flagg may well have been headed into Monday’s title game hailed as one of the greatest ever. 

“Yeah, I mean, it’s the play coach drew up,” Flagg said. “Took it into the paint. Thought I got my feet set, rose up. Left it short obviously. A shot I’m willing to live with in the scenario. I went up on the rim, trust the work that I’ve put in.”