Cubs must do anything they can to extend Kyle Tucker now that Vlad Guerrero Jr. is off the free-agency table

The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have agreed to a 14-year, $500 million contract extension. The fallout includes a ripple effect through the rest of the league, as always with big contracts to big-time players. One of the big winners of the deal is Cubs right fielder Kyle Tucker, who now stands to be the Big Dog in free agency after the 2025 season. 

One might recall the Cubs traded for Tucker this past offseason. Did they intend to trade for just one year of him or are they hoping to extend him? 

They should extend him, but my hunch is this was always a one-year deal by lame duck club president Jed Hoyer. And the problem seems to be ownership, not Hoyer himself. 

Why Tucker should be extended

Tucker came into his own as a star-caliber player starting in 2021 at age 24. He hit .294 with a 147 OPS+ and 5.3 WAR. It was his first of three straight 5+ WAR seasons. That’s All-Star level. He finished fifth in AL MVP voting in 2023. Last season, he started to take things to the next level, hitting .289/.408/.585 (183 OPS+) with 13 doubles, 23 homers, 49 RBI, 56 runs, 11 steals (without getting caught) and 4.7 WAR in just 78 games due to a freak injury. Yes, he was pacing toward an MVP-level season and while we can’t assume he would play the same way for the second half of the season, an age-27 breakout isn’t straying much from baseball history. 

So far this season in only 12 games, Tucker is hitting .319/.458/.745 (233 OPS+) with five doubles, five homers, 15 RBI, 13 runs, three steals and 1.0 WAR. All small-sample caveats are attached this early in the year, but he’s also walked 12 times compared to six strikeouts.

Sure enough, the Cubs are averaging 6.4 runs per game while posting a .776 OPS (118 OPS+) as a team so far. Yeah yeah, it’s a small sample, but also keep in mind they barely hit in those two games in Japan. They’ve gone 7-3 with a monster offense stateside. 

Tucker is the best player and biggest difference-maker in the change from what was a mediocre offense last season. 

Not that is should be all too surprising. Again, he was an established star heading into last season and looked like he made the leap into superstardom and even an MVP-type last year. Hoyer saw fit to cough up: 

• Isaac Paredes, who was an All-Star last season at age 25 and is under team control through 2027
• Cam Smith, who the Cubs drafted in the first round (14th overall) in 2024 and was one of the top prospects in the organization. He made the Astros‘ Opening Day roster
• Hayden Wesnesksi, who still has a talented arm and has struck out 189 in 195 career innings with a 105 ERA+

If you’re going to give up that kind of haul for a player with only one year left before free agency, it sure seems like you should do everything you can to re-sign him. The Yankees were here with Juan Soto and lost out. They also went to the World Series. The Dodgers dealt for Mookie Betts with one year of control left and then signed him to a 12-year, $365 million extension. The Mets did something similar with Francisco Lindor. 

Are the Cubs going to go to the World Series? It’s crowded in the National League with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Braves (yes, I know they’re 1-8), Padres and Diamondbacks and the Giants.

Are the Cubs going to re-sign Tucker? 

If the answer is no to neither of those, it’s hard to justify the trade. And I suspect that’s where we’re headed. Because I already mentioned the crowded NL, but also … 

Cubs ownership doesn’t operate up to market standard

The Cubs ranked 12th in Opening Day payroll this season, according to Cot’s Contracts, roughly $24 million lower than the 2024 Opening Day payroll. 

They aren’t tanking. They are trying to win the NL Central. They don’t have a group of high-performance kids in pre-arbitration like in 2015. 

Let’s be real here. There are very few teams that should have the spending power of the Chicago Cubs in this day and age. The Dodgers and Yankees, sure. Past them? Eh. I’m sure many would argue the Mets under Steve Cohen, but that’s the key. It’s the ownership. Are the Mets definitely the bigger brand than the Cubs? Maybe. 

If I give you the Mets, you can admit that no other team should be able to outspend the Cubs. The Rangers, Phillies, Angels, Red Sox and Blue Jays — trickling down to teams like the Astros, Braves and Diamondbacks — all play in large markets and have major spending power, but the Cubs are the Big Brother team in the third-largest market in the league.

And they are sitting 12th in payroll when they are trying to win. It should be top five. 

If we can pile more on top of this, keep in mind the other markets in the NL Central with the Cubs. The Brewers play in the smallest market in the majors. The Cardinals have a monster brand, but the market is still small. The Reds can’t keep up. And the Pirates under Bob Nutting, well, they also play in the division. 

The Cubs should be wiping the floor with these teams. What happened to the Tom Ricketts who used to walk around and ask fans for feedback? The die-hard Cubs fan who wanted more than anything to win the World Series? Yeah, they won it in 2016 and now the majority of his public-facing comments are whining about money. 

As an illustration regarding how the Cubs stack up next to similar or lesser-market teams, take a look here at the biggest contracts. We can skip the Yankees and Dodgers before diving in, but I’ll list all the deals for $150 million or more on the books at present for the other teams mentioned above. 

• Mets: Juan Soto, 15 years, $765 million; Francisco Lindor, 10 years, $341 million; Brandon Nimmo, eight years, $162 million
• Rangers: Corey Seager, 10 years, $325 million; Jacob deGrom, five years, $185 million; Marcus Semien, seven years, $175 million
• Phillies: Bryce Harper, 13 years, $330 million; Trea Turner, 11 years, $300 million; Aaron Nola, seven years, $172 million
• Angels: Mike Trout, 12 years, $426.5 million; Anthony Rendon, seven years, $245 million
• Red Sox: Rafael Devers, 10 years, $313.5 million
• Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 12 years, $500 million, George Springer, six years, $150 million
• Braves: Austin Riley, 10 years, $212 million; Matt Olson, eight years, $168 million
• Diamondbacks: Corbin Burnes, six years, $210 million
• Cubs: Dansby Swanson, seven years, $177 million

The next-highest deal the Cubs have on the books belongs to Seiya Suzuki at five years and $85 million and that expires after next season. Jason Heyward’s $184 million deal before the 2016 season remains the biggest ever for the Cubs. 

Let’s also keep in mind that a lot of these other teams have been in on some of the biggest free agents while the Cubs sat out the bidding for the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Soto and Burnes and we could even go back to the likes of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. We’re coming up on eight years since the Cubs were thought of as a major bidder. In the years since, they’ve been on the second tier, signing free agents once the very top level of players are gone. 

That doesn’t line up with where they should be, unless ownership is more worried about counting dollars than winning games. 

There’s something to be said for keeping that proverbial powder dry. And the Cubs did swoop in at the right moment to land Swanson on what appears to be a better deal than those that went to Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa, for example. 

It seems to me that the powder being dry is for this exact situation.

Kyle Tucker is a 28-year-old superstar who can be the face of the franchise for a long time. The Blue Jays just got the job done to keep Guerrero on the team for, likely, the rest of his career. The Cubs have plenty of money and not much on the books past 2026 (only Swanson among post-arbitration players). Hoyer saw fit to give up a very nice package of players for Tucker. 

It all lines up. The time to strike with a long-term extension for monster money is now, Cubs. If not, all signs point to Tom Ricketts and the rest of his family in the Cubs ownership group valuing money far more than winning games. 

And while I hope I’m wrong, I suspect I’m not. The most likely outcome is Tucker will hit free agency in the offseason and sign elsewhere.