MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants, April 7

Clutch, clutch victory yesterday in that White Sox-Tigers Under bet to preserve a winning first full week of the season. We’re now 2-for-2 in winning weeks to start, and such a mindset is a good way to evaluate progress for any bettor: Take it one week at a time.

To begin the next seven-day stretch, let’s navigate toward a late West Coast game that will see the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants reconvene for a three-game set in the Bay Area after both clubs met the first weekend of the campaign.

An Opening Day rematch takes center stage in the opener, with staff aces Hunter Greene and Logan Webb set to lock horns once again. When both All-Stars faced off to get 2025 started, that game resulted in an over—though that was thanks to a four-run Giants outburst in the ninth that got them the duke.

Greene fared well in that assignment, turning in five strong innings in which he allowed a pair of runs and a handful of baserunners while garnering eight strikeouts compared to only one walk.

This has been the usual work supplied whenever Greene opposes the Giants, even if it is only three career meetings since the former No. 2 overall draft pick arrived in the majors a few years ago. In those three matchups—spanning 16 1/3 innings—Greene posted a 1.10 ERA and microscopic 0.61 WHIP. But even more impressive than that, he also had a 25-to-3 K/BB ratio.

To further emphasize that last point: He’s got a strikeout rate of 13.8 K/9 against this opponent.

San Francisco does have an extra bopper in the lineup this time around, though, in the form of Willy Adames. He’s 3-for-16 (.188) with seven Ks in his at-bats versus Greene from his days with the Milwaukee Brewers, albeit with two homers.

Greene—a dark horse pick for the National League Cy Young by some—is justifying those prognosticators’ belief with continued effective pitching. His last time out, he oppressed the Texas Rangers in seven sharp innings of one-run ball and punched out eight.

Clearly, the 25-year-old right-hander is a bona fide stud and very much in his prime right now, which is translating to further success. There are no signs of Greene slowing down at all in the coming weeks, and he appears more likely than not to continue his magnificent start to the year.

Now we’re pitting this Reds force against another powerful force—the longtime home excellence of Webb.

The seven-year veteran—all with the Giants—took a couple of seasons to settle in before developing into one of the NL’s best starting arms throughout the last handful of years. Since 2021, he’s pitched to a 3.18 ERA in 127 games (126 starts), and during this lengthy timeframe, he’s consistently saved his best performances for the home fans.

Across 385 2/3 innings pitched at home these last four years, Webb holds a sparkling 2.52 ERA and 1.06 WHIP—not to mention a perfectly fine strikeout rate of 8.3 K/9. Furthermore, Webb has yielded only 0.44 HR/9 in such outings at Oracle Park.

Challenging him on this night in his place of comfort is a Cincinnati offense that hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire. In fact, they just became the first team since the 1960s to be shut out in three consecutive games just within the last week.

The Reds’ batting order did strike for three runs off Webb when they hosted him on Opening Day, but they’ve scored more than three runs in a game only twice since. Therefore, a crooked number from them seems highly unlikely—especially on the road in a pitcher’s park against one of the best home-field starters going.

Pick: UNDER 7 (-120, DraftKings)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 7-4-1, +2.53 units
Over/Unders: 6-3-1
Props: 1-0
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: White Sox-Tigers Under 7.5 (WIN)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

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