Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract: Why Blue Jays slugger got $500 million before even hitting free agency

The Blue Jays have reportedly agreed to a long-term extension with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. that ought to keep him in Toronto for the rest of his career. The 14-year pact will see him earn $500 million without deferrals or opt-out opportunities; additionally, he gains a no-trade clause. The agreement has not yet been officially announced by the Blue Jays. 

Guerrero, 26, had been scheduled to reach free agency this winter. CBS Sports recently ranked him as the top player in the class, noting that those “seemingly overzealous comparisons to Miguel Cabrera” had aged “surprisingly well.” Here’s what we wrote about Guerrero’s expected deal:

Guerrero will be a fascinating case study: the public estimates about his next deal are at odds with the history of how front offices view his general profile (i.e. right-handed first basemen). To wit, Pete Alonso’s $27 million is the richest ever for a free-agent first baseman; Guerrero will make more ($28.5 million) in his final arbitration-eligible season. On top of his skill set and age, his distinction as the closest thing to an elite hitter the market will feature for a few years ought to work in his favor. I assume he’ll become the seventh free-agent hitter to clear a $35 million AAV, and he might soar even higher than that. For now, I’ll err on the conservative side. Prediction: 12 years, $456 million ($38 million AAV)

As it turns out, our average annual value guess was almost on the nose — Guerrero will make $36 million per year, albeit over two additional seasons than predicted. Fair enough. Be that as it may be, some reading might wonder why the Blue Jays would be so eager to commit $500 million — or, what amounts to the second-largest contract in the sport’s history in present value — to a right-right first baseman.

With that in mind, let’s address three particular factors that in our mind worked in Guerrero’s favor.

1. Offensive excellence

Guerrero, by virtue of being a landlocked first baseman, is limited in how much he contributes in defensive, positional, and baserunning value. 

At the same time, let’s face facts: Guerrero is a tremendous offensive player. He has a fast bat; he controls the barrel; and he has big-time strength that gifts him power to all fields. Despite a sluggish start to the year, he’s hit for a 145 OPS+ dating back to 2021. For some perspective on these matters, let’s revisit those aforementioned comparisons to Cabrera. Check out their marks through their age-26 season (do note that Guerrero remains in the midst of his, so those numbers will change soon and often):

Cabrera is a former 12-time All-Star and a future Hall of Famer with more than 3,000 hits and 500 home runs to his credit. Predictably, Guerrero matching such a player almost step for step means that Guerrero himself is an elite hitter. It would be perfectly fair to describe him as one of the 10 or so best hitters going — even if you wouldn’t necessarily rank him that high as an overall contributor.

2. Brand value

Ballplayers are primarily viewed through the lens of their on-field contributions, but their actual value to an organization goes beyond what they do between the lines. There are soft factors that are too often overlooked or ignored, yet that undeniably exist all the same. You don’t have to take our word for it. Just consider what Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro — himself seldom someone who falls victim to sentiment — recently said on the matter.

“In every other case, I would say the only other thing that actually sells tickets in the hundreds of thousands is winning,” Shapiro said late in spring training after Guerrero’s self-imposed deadline had passed. “There are players who have magnetic personalities, like Vlad, who amplify winning and can really help, but fans don’t come to see great players on losing teams. We need to win to have fans come in the largest numbers possible. Vlad is a part of helping us win and he’s a player that has a chance to be a very special player for a generation of Blue Jays fans.”

You can argue with Shapiro’s declaration or with Guerrero’s actual appeal. Fine. But the logic is easy enough to understand. Guerrero is a homegrown player and a native Canadian who happens to be the son of a very popular former Montreal Expos star. If you were designing the perfect face of the franchise for this specific Blue Jays organization, you would probably come up with something like Guerrero. And that helps to explain why Toronto might have placed a premium on keeping him in place for the duration of his career.

3. Opportunity cost

If you’ve paid attention to the last few offseasons, you’ll know that the Blue Jays finishing second on top free agents has developed into a trope. They came up short on Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, and too many others to reasonably list here. Blame it on players not wanting to move across the United States border; the exchange rate; the organization’s competitive state; or whatever else you want. The Blue Jays had, for whatever reason, found it tough to get anyone to take their money.

That dynamic alone would be enough to alter the Blue Jays’ opportunity cost. But there’s another factor worth considering: the upcoming free-agent markets.

We’ve become spoiled the last few winters with one superstar after another reaching free agency: Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto. Hopefully everyone savored it, because we’re not going to experience that kind of run again anytime soon. With the acknowledgement that pro sports are unpredictable and Things Happen a lot, it looks like Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson could be the next premier free agent — and he’s not slated to hit the open market until, oh, the winter of 2028.

Put yourself in the quarter zip and khaki pants of the Blue Jays’ top executives. You have ownership’s consent to make a splash, but you know that 1) you keep coming up short on marquee free agents; and 2) the number of defensible top targets will be sparse for the next few winters. Can you see why you’d be willing to go big — really big — to keep your homegrown, second-generation star in place?

Of course, understanding why the Blue Jays made this deal isn’t necessarily the same as thinking it’s a great deal. This may prove to be a misstep in the long run — lord knows there’s an extreme amount of uncertainty with any 14-year deal, especially at this point in history. It does, nevertheless, make for an interesting agreement that will cement multiple legacies, one way or another.