Weekend NHL rankings: Ovechkin breaks the goals record, plus my worst rankings

Sports

add

First things first: The biggest story in the NHL right now is of course Alex Ovechkin breaking Wayne Gretzky’s goals record, and we’ll get to that in the Washington section down below.

But first, there are only two editions of the Weekend Rankings left before we run out of regular-season runway. Next week is the season finale, which is always fun, because it’s when we ditch the top five for a top 16 (or more), check in on the Gold Plan standings and make some oddly specific predictions.

This week is not so fun, at least not for me. Some of you seem to enjoy it. It’s time for our annual look back at the very worst top-five and bottom-five picks I made throughout the season.

Look, I never said I was perfect. I also never said I wasn’t, and it’s possible that all of these “bad picks” were really just made ironically, or to see if you were paying attention, or as occasional intentional mistakes I made in tribute to watching too much Astro Boy as a kid. But whatever went wrong, these picks have not aged well, and I have to take my medicine.

Bonus Five: My worst five rankings of the year

5. The Blue Jackets in the bottom — I certainly wasn’t alone in starting the season with low expectations for Columbus. I do wish I’d given them credit a bit earlier than I did — I had them in the bottom three for each of the season’s first three weeks — but I was trying not to overreact to a solid start. I can defend this one, and I made it up to Blue Jackets fans down the road. But I certainly can’t claim I was ahead of the curve.

4. Avoiding the Rangers’ reality — Like the Blue Jackets, I can defend my first-week misfire on the Rangers, who were the defending Presidents’ Trophy winners when I debuted them in the five-spot. But after a 5-0-1 start, I was pretty much all in, having them as high as second by the end of October and still in the top five by mid-November, even though some of the warning lights on the dashboard were already blinking. Once I finally dropped them, they never returned. But in hindsight, it took me too long to cut bait.

3. The Wild’s stint in the top five — The Wild debuted in the top five in early December and stayed there for three weeks. The standings agreed with me, with Minnesota peaking at an 18-4-4 record on Dec. 6 that had them sitting alone in first place. But as I so often point out, these rankings aren’t supposed to just mirror the standings, they’re meant as long-term projections. And the long term was not kind to the Wild. Should I have seen that coming? Ideally, sure.

2. Too slow on the Capitals — Despite having one of the league’s better records pretty much since the season started, it took me until the second week of December to finally move the Caps into the top five. They were actually the 11th and (so far) final team to crack that list, showing up after teams like the Rangers, Wild and Devils had already come and gone.

1. The Habs — I can defend having them debut in the bottom five, since expectations weren’t high. And I can maybe even defend having them all the way down at the two-spot in mid-November, not long after their record dropped to an ugly 4-9-2. But then I got stubborn, keeping them on the bottom list until the end of December. And worst of all, I put them back on the list heading into the 4 Nations break — which is to say, right before they became the league’s hottest team. All told, the Habs made 12 appearances in the bottom five, which is more than the Flyers and just a couple less than the Sabres and Predators. It could end up being a record for a playoff team.

Great, now that I’ve done my penance and convinced you I’m bad at this whole thing, let’s move on to this week’s rankings …

Road to the Cup

The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.

Something that’s maybe fun only to me: These are the long-term rankings, while the Friday edition is more about what’s happening right now. But as we get to the end of the season, we get closer to the point when the long term isn’t all that long and starts to feel a lot like right now. In theory, that means the two different approaches to the rankings should start to converge. And sure enough, as a few of you pointed out, last week’s Friday top five was an exact match for ours for the first time all year. The system works! At least for one week.

5. Carolina Hurricanes (46-26-4, +42 true goals differential*) — I don’t love two straight losses to the Wings and Bruins, but at this point, it’s fair to mention the Hurricanes have essentially nothing left to play for down the stretch. They’re in Washington on Thursday, in a game that won’t matter much as far as the standings go but will feel like a Round 2 preview.

4. Vegas Golden Knights (47-22-8, +54) — The Kings aren’t giving them much breathing room — more on them in a bit — but they’re still the favorite to take the division. That will set them up with a first-round matchup with the Blues, who may never lose again. Wait, I’m talking myself out of this ranking, let’s move on.

3. Dallas Stars (50-22-5, +66) — They picked up a point against the Wild, but couldn’t get the win in a shootout. So that leaves them three points back of the Jets with both teams sitting at 77 games. They’re also both at 41 regulation wins, but the Jets have an edge in ROW, which is the next tiebreaker.

2. Winnipeg Jets (52-21-4, +81) — By the way, the Jets and Stars face each other in Dallas on Thursday. Depending on how the week starts off, that could be the game that decides who wins the division, and more importantly, who dodges the Avalanche in Round 1. For now, I can’t put either team in the top spot until we know who’s going to claim the Central’s top seed.

1. Washington Capitals (49-19-9, +68) — Ovechkin is the big story of the weekend, not just in hockey but all of sports. Here’s the Joe Beninati call of the record-breaker:

A sight we’ve seen 894 times before this and each and every single time has been in a Capitals sweater.

Thank you, O!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/NgDK9EZopG

— x – Washington Capitals (@Capitals) April 6, 2025

The Athletic was all over the big moment. Let’s get you caught up.

• Other Sean was in the building and had the newser, along with thoughts on how we got here and why this matters and even a fun quiz.

• Laz on whether the new record is unbreakable.

• My quick take on where Ovechkin’s goal ranks compared to last month’s list of all-timers.

• And here’s our emergency pod from moments after history was made:

What else? Oh right, the Caps lost, dropping them out of first place. I’m guessing Washington fans will be OK with that.

*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.

Not ranked: Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers — We’re going to keep things relatively simple in the “not ranked” sections this week. I have a few questions I want your feedback on. And right now, this one might be the most interesting.

If the Kings have home ice in a Round 1 rematch, are you picking them over the Oilers?

That “if” is important, because I’m willing to bet most of us are taking Edmonton if it rallies to take back home ice. That’s only fair, given the Oilers have beaten this Kings team three years in a row. A healthy Oilers certainly aren’t unbeatable, but they’d be the favorites in that series, and rightly so.

But for the sake of argument, let’s assume the Golden Knights hold onto the top spot in the division, forcing another Edmonton/Los Angeles matchup. Flip home ice to the Kings, who’d hold it if the season ended right now, and maybe your outlook changes. But how much?

You probably know the numbers by now, but just in case: The Kings are 29-4-4 at home, which is not just one of the best marks in the league but is getting into the territory of the best in the cap era. On the road, they’re well under .500. Without getting too hyperbolic, they’re almost two different teams depending on where they play.

We got a preview on Saturday, when the Oilers visited the Kings and dropped a 3-0 decision. Granted, that was an Edmonton lineup missing Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, among others, so we won’t quite call it a playoff preview. Still, a win is a win, and the Kings claimed yet another one.

So let’s give the Kings home ice to start the series and in a potential deciding Game 7 against McDavid and friends. Do you pick them now?

I know I’m not picking the Kings if they start on the road. I’m not completely sure I’ll have the nerve to pick them at home, but I’ll definitely have to think about it. I’m betting I’m not alone, but I want to know where you’re at on this series.

The bottom five

The five teams headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for a top pick that could be James Hagens, Matthew Schaefer or someone else.

We’re not quite into “lock” territory yet, but it sure feels like Lane Hutson has pulled away as the Calder favorite over the last week or two, right?

(Yes, Habs fans, I know, he had already mathematically clinched the trophy the first day he put on skates, but give the rest of us a chance to catch up.)

5. Boston Bruins (31-38-9, -53) — I honestly can’t believe it’s come to this, but here we are. At this point, this section is less about predicting the future and more about just reading the standings, and the Bruins are sitting 29th after yesterday’s loss to the Sabres, meaning I’m actually being slightly generous here. This entire team is more checked out than a tattered copy of “Harry Potter” at the elementary school library.

4. Philadelphia Flyers (31-37-9, -49) — We’ve reached the point in a miserable season at which the boss weighs in. My favorite quote: “I’d say expectation No. 2 (is) that the goalies will continue to improve, or we’ll find a solution there, without getting into specifics.” Can’t argue with him there — the Flyers’ goaltending this year has definitely been number two.

3. Nashville Predators (27-42-8, -61) — Last summer I wrote about the 10 different types of NHL offseasons, and at this point, I think it’s fair to say the Predators nailed the last one.

2. Chicago Blackhawks (22-45-10, -67) — I don’t often recommend wading into an online comments section, but the reaction from Hawks fans to this profile of Nick Foligno was interesting. As Laz points out, there’s a healthy dose of cynicism in the market. Or maybe it’s not so healthy. Either way, it’s hard to blame the fans for having their doubts after how the season played out.

Also, Friday night was a lot of fun.

1. San Jose Sharks (20-46-10, -91) — With nothing to directly play for, the Sharks’ role for the rest of the season is pretty clear: Western wild-card spoiler. Four of their six remaining games are against the Wild, Canucks and Flames (twice). If we’re going to get any kind of a late race for the final spot, the Sharks will play a key role in making it happen.

Not ranked: Anaheim Ducks — They’re this week’s other team that I need some help figuring out.

The good news: They’re coming off back-to-back seasons that saw them fail to hit 60 points, a mark they reached by early March this time around. They still have a shot at finishing fake .500, which isn’t that hard in this league but is a checkpoint you have to hit on your way to playoff contention. They arguably had one young player break through this year, and Lukas Dostal plays the most important position so he’s probably the guy you’d pick. Add it all up, and while they didn’t exactly get to play a ton of meaningful hockey down the stretch, at least they were vaguely in the race up until a few weeks ago.

That’s all good. But is it good enough?

The downside is that, aside from Dostal, I’m not sure any of the team’s many young building blocks had the sort of season that raises their ceiling. Leo Carlsson has 20 goals and looks good, Cutter Gauthier held his own as a rookie, Mason MacTavish will hit 50 points for the first time, and various young blueliners looked the part of NHL pieces. But did anyone take a major step forward? Maybe Jackson LaCombe — more on him here — but that’s probably it. The pipeline is still very good, but as far as the guys at the NHL level, results have been mixed.

Meanwhile, Troy Terry leads this team in scoring without cracking 60 points. Trevor Zegras continues to regress, even as the team kicks the can down the road on any kind of trade. John Gibson played well, but not well enough that they could move him for futures. And that fake .500 record is likely going to mean they pick well outside the top five.

In other words, it feels like this is one of those rebuilding teams whose ceiling is starting to come into focus. And if so, I’m not sure it’s as high as Ducks fans would want it to be.

But that’s just me, an Eastern sportswriter who goes to bed early and might be missing some of the nuance here. So I’ll throw it open to Ducks fans: Where are you at after an (almost) full season of mediocrity? Was that the step forward this team needed, and is your long-term optimism still where you’d like it to be? Let me know in the comments, because I know which way I’m starting to lean and it will be easier to talk me out of it now.

(Photo of Alex Ovechkin: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

Share on

email

Previous

trending_flat

Alcaraz revela el motivo de su mal momento: “Esa presión me ha matado”

Carlos Alcaraz

Next

trending_flat

Dawn Staley’s Louis Vuitton tracksuit valued at $7,600 was overshadowed by Geno Auriemma

Agency_SAM