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Sure, the 2025 MLB season has only just begun, but it’s never too soon to think about the next round of free agency. After all, dreams of successful future seasons keep MLB fans going, and there’s good reason to revisit the shape of what next offseason has to bring, anyway: with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now extended for the next 14 years, the centerpiece of the next free agent class is no more.
There is no one quite on Guerrero Jr.’s level who will be a free agent in his stead — there’s a reason he got a half-billion dollar deal and all — but there are still some intriguing names out there and potential game changers, for the teams willing to make the effort and spend the cash. Some might only be available if they decide to opt-out, but a strong 2025 season could make that very thing happen, strengthening the free agent class (and fattening their wallets) in the process.
Tucker will be 29 in 2026, which is still young enough to secure a significant long-term deal. From 2022 through 2024 with the Houston Astros, Tucker batted .275/.362/.515, averaging 27 home runs per year, while putting up a 145 OPS+. While the Astros clearly felt that dealing Tucker to the Chicago Cubs was going to be better for them in the long run than holding on to Tucker for 2025, that has more to do with their own spending habits and desire to stay under the luxury tax threshold than it does Tucker’s own abilities. It’s early in 2025, but in his new home he’s picked up right where he left off, batting .319/.458/.745 with a National League-leading five homers and 15 hits that also add up to the senior circuit’s top OPS.
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Tucker might be unlikely to be quite that good throughout 2025 or going forward, but he doesn’t have to be to still be an attractive free agent for a team looking to bolster their offense. His ceiling hasn’t been as high as Guerrero Jr.’s, but he’s been more consistent than Toronto’s star, and that consistency is going to get him paid.
Just how good is Bo Bichette? The answer to that question being a bit unclear could harm his free agency a bit, but he could also bring some clarity to the situation with a strong 2025. The good: Bichette will be just 28 years old in 2026, and from ages 21 through 25, he batted .299/.340/.487, and, save for his inaugural, 46-game stint, scored well defensively, too. The bad: Bichette hit all of .225/.277/.322 in 81 games in 2024, and it was yet another year where lower body injuries gave him trouble.
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His calf strains didn’t seem to impact his defense much, at least, and that one year of offensive struggles could just be a blip. His power hasn’t returned yet in 2025, sure, but we’re talking about a 10-game sample, and his bat has looked good otherwise. In short, if Bichette has a more Bichettian season than last summer, he’s going to get paid — shortstops who hit like he does while also being able to field aren’t exactly available for everyone. He’ll have to stay healthy and bring back his power if that’s going to happen, however.
For Pete Alonso to be a free agent again, he’ll have to opt-out of his current contract with the New York Mets. There’s basically no reason for Alonso to not do that, however, unless he has a disaster 2025 season. He’s in the first month of a two-year, $54 million deal signed at the start of spring training, which seemed to be signed mostly because of a lack of attention Alonso got from team — including the Mets — during the offseason.
The first year of a the deal is a make-good opportunity, basically, with Alonso, coming off of a two-season stretch where he hit for a ton of power (80 home runs) but batted just .229. That’s not terrible by any means — Alonso’s wRC+ for those years came in at 121 and 122 — but he’s a first baseman who is a negative defensively, too, so if the power falls off even a little, he goes from potentially above-average to a drag on the roster.
He’s off to a great start in 2025, batting .290/.421/.645 with three homers in nine games, but the important thing over the course of 162 games is to show that 2023-2024 were not the start of a decline period that teams aren’t going to want to pay big money for. If Alonso can manage that, he’ll be able to safely opt-out without risking losing money in the process.
Cease was acquired by the San Diego Padres from the Chicago White Sox before the 2024 season, and he did not disappoint: while his old teammates set the modern loss record, Cease threw over 189 innings in a league-leading 33 starts while posting a 118 ERA+, helping the Padres to a postseason appearance.
While Cease isn’t an ace — outside of that stellar 2022 season where he ranked second in Cy Young voting that looks out of place next to the rest of his career — he’s reliable, and present. In an era where injuries abound and churn is the norm, having a guy you know is good for at least 175 innings and over 30 starts is worth paying for. That he’ll be 30 might keep that price down a little bit, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he were the most expensive pitcher on the market next offseason, either.
Gallen, currently with the Arizona Diamondbacks, could certainly challenge Cease for largest pitcher contract next winter. While he doesn’t consistently produce as many innings or starts as the Padres’ hurler, his 131 ERA+ from 2022 to the present is a step above what Cease has managed in the same stretch. Both will be 30 years old in 2026, both have pitched well enough to receive numerous Cy Young votes on more than one occasion, and a new team can’t go wrong with either of them.
Watching Arraez’s free agency will be fascinating. He won the American League batting title in 2022, then the NL’s in 2023 and 2024. He doesn’t draw many walks, however, so he’s very dependent on his batting average, and that fact is only reinforced by his complete lack of power: Pete Alonso hit more homers in a disappointing 2024 campaign than Arraez has managed in his entire big-league career.
[Related: Garrett Crochet, Red Sox agree to unprecedented $170 million, 6-year deal]
It’s not like Arraez is a defensive whiz at second base, either. His ability to make contact and hit for average is the reason to have him around. He’ll be 29 in 2026, so not quite “old” but definitely at the cusp of things potentially falling apart for a second baseman, which means interest in him might be more reliant on the strength of his 2025 than for any other player on this list. Teams have to believe that Arraez isn’t going to stop being able to contribute sooner than later, and being able to hit well above .300 while avoiding strikeouts will be the way to do that.
The Boston Red Sox thought enough of Alex Bregman to bring him in and push their star third baseman Rafael Devers to DH, but Bregman didn’t think quite enough of the Sox to guarantee he’d stick around beyond 2025. Now, Bregman might end up staying in Boston even if he does have a great 2025 — his deal might be for just three seasons, but it’s also for $120 million, with the lofty average annual value a concession to the short length of the contract. Will Bregman, already 31, be able to pull in more total money than that on a new deal after 2025 and opting out? That’s going to depend heavily on the nature of that 2025 season.
Bregman won a Gold Glove in 2024, but his offense was down, with his on-base percentage taking an uncharacteristic dip. If he can bring the walks back while keeping his average from falling any further, and the power remains, then the 2026 offseason is a second chance for him on free agency. He’s off to a good start, too, at .341/.383/.974 with an AL-leading 15 hits and five doubles. If you want to prove you can still hit by putting up numbers for a year, there are worse places for a right-hander to go than Fenway Park and the Green Monster.
Valdez is excellent, the key to the Astros’ rotation. He’s nearly as reliable as Cease in terms of taking the mound, and has performed as well, and consistently so, as Gallen. He’s already 31, however, so teams might be a little less willing to give him that extra year or two that could be in offers for the other two starters atop next winter’s free agent pile. Still, Valdez is sure to be paid, so long as he can continue to do what’s made him so good in the first place, which is to limit the long ball and keep walks to a minimum.
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