- Ben Johnson is a questionable match for Caleb Williams: Johnson’s offensive scheme in Detroit operated primarily under center and relied on QB Jared Goff getting rid of the ball quickly, pieces missing from Williams’ game to date.
- Chicago needs to draft more weapons for Williams: The Chicago Bears need to take advantage of the depth at both tight end and running back during the draft.
- 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated reading time: 11 minutes
Considering the immense hype, Caleb Williams’ rookie season was disappointing. His 63.5 passing grade was the lowest among the 24 QBs with at least 400 dropbacks, and his 73.4% adjusted completion rate ranked 21st.
The Chicago Bears started the season 4-2. Still, they lost the next 10 games, and head coach Matt Eberflus was shown the door after a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Detroit Lions that featured an embarrassing time management snafu on the final drive (which Williams certainly shares blame for).
A NEW ERA
In January, the Bears hired Ben Johnson to take over the vacant head position. Considered by many to be one of the top candidates available this offseason, he comes to Chicago via Detroit, where he coordinated one of the best offenses in football the past two seasons. In 2024, his Lions offense had a positive EPA (expected points added) on 50.6% of plays, and their 0.171 EPA per play was second-best in the league, behind only the Baltimore Ravens.
Obviously, the production difference between the Bears and Lions offenses last year was immense, but the schematic and philosophical differences were every bit as startling. Detroit ran the ball 517 times in the regular season, the second-highest mark in the league, behind only the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bears ran the ball 379 times, good for just 26th. Only 43.9% of the Lions’ snaps were from shotgun (and just a single snap all season was operated out of pistol), the third-lowest mark in the NFL. The Bears were in the middle of the pack, ranking 15th at 67.5%. Detroit also ran play-action at a 37.6% rate, 4.1% higher than the next highest club (Los Angeles Chargers), while the Bears’ 17.6% was second lowest, behind only the Atlanta Falcons. Screen passes accounted for just 5.5% of the Lions’ plays, while the Bears used them at a 10.5% rate. The Lions and Bears may play in the same division, but last year, the offensive playing styles were in two different galaxies.
PATIENCE IS KEY
Bears faithful will need to be patient with the Johnson/Williams connection, as their adaptation to each other will take some time. Williams’ 2023 offense at USC more closely resembled the 2024 Bears offense than it did the Lions, meaning Johnson is likely to ask his young signal-caller to operate in a manner he has little experience with. USC ran the ball just 36.0% of offensive plays in 2023, the fourth-lowest mark among all Power-Five schools. The Trojans operated out of shotgun a staggering 95.5% of snaps, and another 1.7% was out of pistol. Play-action is something Williams is more familiar with from back to his USC days, as the 2023 Trojans ranked 11th among Power-Five schools by using play-action at a 40.4% clip. However, his screen usage was even higher, 16.2% (the highest percentage in the nation).
Despite the absurdly high screen usage, Williams’ average time to throw was 3.19 seconds, the second-highest mark in the Power Five. This carried over last season with the Bears, as his 3.04-second average time to throw was the fourth-highest in the league (Lions QB Jared Goff’s 2.71-second average time to throw ranked 12th-lowest). His play also struggled when he held onto the ball longer in 2024, as his 66.9% adjusted completion rate on plays with an average time to throw over 2.5 seconds was the fourth-worst.
Much was made throughout the season about the Bears’ poor pass protection, but Williams brought a significant amount of pressure on himself. He was charged with 17 sacks, the highest total in the league among quarterbacks, and his 38 total pressures charged was tied for third-most. Conversely, Goff was responsible for just 7.1% of Detroit’s pressures, the third-lowest mark among QBs with at least 100 pressured dropbacks.
The time to throw and owned pressure stats are critical for Williams because they suggest he is holding onto the ball too long and struggling to make decisions. These were not issues with Goff in Detroit, despite the Lions’ lack of screen plays and the extremely high play-action usage from under center. This raises a significant red flag, as it suggests that Johnson’s scheme in Detroit does not mesh well with some of the things Williams has struggled with most during his young career in both college and the NFL.
JOHNSON CAN HELP WILLIAMS BY FITTING HIS SCHEME IN GRADUALLY…
While Johnson surely will look to use Williams under center at a rate he hasn’t experienced to this point, he doesn’t have to ask his young signal-caller to take seven-step drops on every snap. As mentioned earlier, Johnson loved using play-action in Detroit, and Williams had success with this in college, albeit primarily out of the gun. Johnson could also increase his usage of the quick game, not just with screens but with RPOs as well. USC used RPOs on 32.5% of plays with Williams at the helm in 2023, the seventh-highest percentage among the Power Five, and the Bears ranked 11th last season by using them on 10.5% of their snaps. Detroit only used RPOs at a 5.5% rate, certainly a function of playing under center so much, but there is a medium ground Johnson should look to find here.
…AND BY BUILDING THE OFFENSE THROUGH THE DRAFT
The good news for the Bears is that the defense is in excellent shape and doesn’t have any true glaring needs that require attention early in the draft. The defensive line needed upgrades in terms of the pass rush this offseason, and the Bears were able to accommodate via free agency by signing DI Grady Jarrett and EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo.
The interior offensive line was the primary focus on the other side of the ball, as the Bears signed center Drew Dalman and traded for veteran guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson. While they could look to finish off the line with a left tackle at pick No. 10, they may not deem this necessary considering Braxton Jones returns (albeit after a season that ended early with a broken ankle) and 2024 third-round selection Kiran Amegadjie now has a year under his belt.
The offensive line and the entire defensive unit’s stability should allow Chicago to focus its early-round draft efforts on finding more quality skill players for Williams. The obvious need is at running back, as current starter D’Andre Swift has already been traded once by a Ben Johnson team (the Lions traded him to the Eagles for a Day 3 pick in 2023). His contract will likely prevent the Bears from being able to move on from him this offseason (cutting him would cost the franchise between $8-10 million depending on the designation, and with minimal cap savings), but with the outstanding depth in this draft’s running back class, now is the time to strike.
Boise State phenom Ashton Jeanty would be a worthy target, but plenty of talent will be available on Day 2 of the draft as well. Arizona State’s Cameron Skattebo may not have Jeanty’s open-field speed, but he’s an excellent tackle-breaker in his own right (103 forced missed tackles on the ground, 13 after the catch in 2024). He also had significant production in the receiving game, something Johnson is sure to covet. He caught 44 balls for 543 yards, 199 of them earned after initial contact. He was also used in a variety of alignments, as he had 21 reps from the slot and 30 out wide, the highest total among the backs ranked in the top 200 of the PFF big board. Interestingly enough, last season in Detroit, it wasn’t Johnson’s “lightning” back (Jahmyr Gibbs) who graded out best in the league as a receiver – it was actually the “thunder” back, David Montgomery. His 90.7 receiving grade led all NFL backs last year, bolstered by his 18 forced missed tackles (the third highest total for backs after receptions). Skattebo is a unique and versatile talent who is likely to be available at either of Chicago’s second-round picks (picks No. 39 and 41).
With running back solutions available on Day 2, the Bears can instead look to take another wide receiver to replace the departed Keenan Allen. This being said, when considering the capital they currently have invested in veteran stud DJ Moore and 2024 ninth-overall pick Rome Odunze, the best course of action would be to instead target either of the two elite tight end prospects available in this class.
I suggested two weeks ago that the Bears could consider trading back from pick No. 10 to select Penn State TE Tyler Warren, but numerous projections have him currently in high demand. Considering he sits at No. 8 overall on the PFF big board, he appears well-worth the pick the Bears currently hold. Johnson would love the versatility of his game, as over the past two seasons, he played a combined 345 in-line snaps and 351 from the slot. Last season, on 104 catches (for 1230 yards), he forced 19 missed tackles (second-highest in the class) and ranked third in the class with 13 contested catches.
Michigan’s Colston Loveland is the other top tight end, and while he is ranked 25th on our board, his ability to run precise routes and consistently create separation out of his breaks would also make him a great fit in Chicago. His 90.6 receiving grade was third-best in the country last college season (Warren’s 93.4 was good for second).
With running back and tight end addressed, the Bears still have two more picks on Day 2 of the draft to find premium players for the offense. This is where they should look to address left tackle and wide receiver to fill out the rest of the roster.
Oregon’s Josh Conerly Jr. ranks 36th on the PFF big board and would be a solid choice for the Bears in Round 2. Conerly had a strong showing at the combine last month, measuring in at 6-foot-5 and 311 pounds while posting a 5.05-second 40-yard dash and jumping a 34.5-inch vertical. He started the last two seasons for the Ducks at left tackle, and on 1,007 combined pass block snaps, he surrendered just two sacks and four hits.
The Bears also own pick No. 72 in the third round, and for that selection, I love the idea of rounding out the receiving corps with Iowa State’s Jaylin Noel, who sits at No. 77 on the PFF big board. Noel’s outstanding combine (4.39-second 40-yard dash, 41.5 inch vertical, 11-foot-2 broad jump and 6.82 second three-cone drill) was no surprise for those who followed him at Iowa State, as he is a smooth and explosive athlete who runs technically proficient routes. He converted 46 of his 80 catches last season into first downs (eight into scores), and despite his 5-foot-10 194 194-pound frame, he snagged 13 of 25 contested targets. He would provide Chicago with a second receiving weapon able to create separation consistently out of his breaks, as well as give them instant insurance for DJ Moore.
A TEAM ON THE ASCENSION
Ultimately, while the corps of the roster is solid, the Bears will only go as far as Caleb Williams can take them. Again, there is certain to be a transition period for both him and his new head coach, but Chicago has the draft capital available to give him all the help he requires to succeed.
This news was originally published on this post .
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