Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has become an intriguing but enigmatic prospect in an NFL Draft class lacking at the position. There’s plenty to be enticed about with Milroe, but the team selecting him has to accept that they have some refining to do.
Milroe is the latest run-first, super athlete with a big developmental gap who has some teams enamored with his potential. He’s close to 6-foot-2 and 217 pounds, with 4.4 speed and a rocket arm. He has experience in big games against tough competition at Alabama. Milroe played in a creative spread attack that utilized some true dropback game but as a passer, he struggled with consistency, accuracy, timing and pocket presence. He does many things you can’t teach, but he’ll need patience to develop.
The ball explodes out of Milroe’s hand, bringing the strongest arm in this class. At his best, he is a deep-game hunter who can effortlessly get the ball downfield. He’s an exceptional runner who has the strength to rip away from arm tackles and the explosiveness to take runs to the house. He’ll sail passes occasionally but when he gets his feet properly aligned, he can fire into tight windows.
Teams will be intrigued with developing his considerable tools but what concerns me most about Milroe is his general lack of feel for the passing game. He had 28 starts in college so he’s experienced but even late into his last season, he didn’t display a sense of timing, pressure and anticipation.
Even on a routine curl route in which receiver Ryan Williams was wide open against off-coverage, Milroe waited until after Williams’ break to throw which gave the corner a chance to dislodge the ball.
Milroe hesitated to throw if the picture got even a little muddy and that just can’t happen in the NFL when you must anticipate and throw receivers open. In the play above, the Crimson Tide had a Sluggo/seam concept called. Milroe looked to the Sluggo (slant-and-go) first. His receiver couldn’t get open but Milroe looking that way caused the free safety to fly over the top, leaving the seam wide open on the other side. Milroe looked to the seam but didn’t throw the ball, which allowed the rush to get to him and forced him to throw the ball away. In the NFL, that’s wide open. Getting Milroe to trust that receivers will open up or that he can throw them open will be a challenging leap.
He also struggled against pressure, ranking 99th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against the blitz (-0.06) among quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts.
On this play, LSU showed blitz with both linebackers in a rushing stance. The blitz took a little time to develop but Milroe dropped his eyes early and didn’t see his slot receiver opening up on a shallow cross or Williams opening up behind him. On either option, he would have had to throw with anticipation but that’s where he struggles.
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To be fair, the Alabama pass protection deserves some blame. There were plenty of clips in which Milroe should have been protected against the pressure schemes faced but they would botch the protection or miss a block. Still, Milroe doesn’t seem to speed up his clock when pressure comes. There were too many instances when he was hit or sacked by a pass rusher he had no idea was barreling down on him. He doesn’t seem to have a good sense of pressure.
According to Pro Football Focus, his pressure-to-sack rate, which is a stable metric that usually translates to the pros, was average (18.5 percent). You want to see a quarterback with his athletic gifts more adept at avoiding sacks.
Anthony Richardson, another athletic developmental project, had a phenomenal pressure-to-sack rate (9.2 percent) in college. His pocket presence was one of the reasons he was such a coveted prospect and was drafted by the Colts with pick No. 4. The jury is still out on Richardson, but his inaccuracy is one of his biggest shortcomings in the NFL. Milroe will sail the occasional pass, but he was more accurate than Richardson. Milroe’s adjusted completion percentage (72.6 percent) is slightly above average while averaging 9.4 air yards per pass attempt.
Additionally, Milroe doesn’t process well post-snap. He struggled against defenses that disguise, pressure and rotate late like Oklahoma and Michigan.
On this play, the Oklahoma defense shifted into a one-deep look before the snap and rolled the corner in the flats. The offense had a run/pass option called. Milroe didn’t see the coverage shift and threw the bubble screen which was easily intercepted by the corner. NFL defenses are disguising more than ever so Milroe must get better at reacting to post-snap movement as the game speeds up.
One way to limit defensive disguising is a punishing run game. Milroe is in the same tier as a runner as Jayden Daniels and Richardson. The team that drafts him can build an option attack as a base offense or a package for Milroe immediately.
His 4.4 speed shows up on film. He erases angles with his straight-line speed, and he can explode off of cuts like a running back. If he doesn’t develop as a quarterback, he has the physical profile of a running back.
Some have compared Milroe to former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts and there are similarities. Both have strong arms, prefer to throw outside, don’t anticipate well and struggle with the blitz. Milroe is a more explosive runner and has a stronger arm, but Hurts was more accurate coming out of college. Also, Hurts improved every season and was a more mature passer than Milroe. Physically, Milroe has a higher ceiling, but his developmental gap makes him a bigger project than Hurts was.
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For a relatively experienced quarterback, you’d like to see a little more polish to his game or more of a natural feel. His game feels rigid because he needed clean looks to function in the passing game. Reportedly, he’s performed well in interviews, so teams must feel that has the football IQ and work ethic to develop in the league. The team that drafts him needs to have an offensive coordinator with experience calling an option offense and the patience to understand his deficiencies. Overall, Milroe does things that you can’t teach, but his deficiencies are also hard to improve on.
(Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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