Apr 9, 2023; Augusta, Georgia, USA; Jon Rahm waves to the crowd after donning his green jacket after winning The Masters golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Network After the NCAA Tournament and before the NBA and Stanley Cup playoffs, it’s the perfect moment to make a little time in your betting schedules for some golf.
The Masters is upon us, and because it’s the only major played on the same course every year, there is a trove of historical data to pick through and consider when forming predictions for the week.
The two far-and-away favorites are the top two golfers in the world rankings, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. But we’re not here to pick chalk; we’re here to find value. Here are not three but four picks we’re confident in as Augusta National gets those pimento cheese sandwiches ready for us.
The Master’s First-Round Leader Best Bet
Irishman Shane Lowry is in great form this season, with a runner-up finish at Pebble Beach and three top-11 finishes in his past four outings. He ranks fourth on tour in strokes gained: tee to green, behind only Collin Morikawa, McIlroy and Scheffler.
Major championship-tested, Lowry’s best finish at Augusta was a tie for third in 2022. I also considered Ludvig Åberg here, but the Swede’s recent putting woes gave me pause — and Lowry offers better value anyway. He’s on the same line as Tommy Fleetwood and Corey Conners at +5000 to lead after 18.
Shane Lowry, Leader after first round, +5000 (FanDuel)
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The Master’s Top 10 market
Unless this is your first year betting on the Masters, you’ve heard by now that many holes at Augusta National are shaped better for left-handed golfers. Southpaws Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson and Mike Weir combined for six Masters wins in a 12-year span (2003–14). As if I needed another reason to like Akshay Bhatia this week.
Bhatia tied for 35th last year in his Masters debut. He has three top-10s this year — including at the Genesis and the Players — and ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage on par-4 holes, a stat highly correlated with Augusta success. Oh, and he swings it lefty — a nice bonus.
Akshay Bhatia, Top 10 finish, +500 (DraftKings)
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Top debutant
I love getting in the weeds and playing specialty markets like this. We’re looking for the Masters first-timer who’ll post the best score over four days. Options include Maverick McNealy, Aaron Rai and Taylor Pendrith — all top-50 players in the world rankings.
While Rai’s statistics stand out, the play here is McNealy, who’s in better form (a win in November, second at the Genesis, T-3 at the Texas Open) and who’s been qualifying for U.S. Opens since the age of 18. He’s got the shortest odds of the group at BetMGM but more lucrative +800 odds elsewhere.
Maverick McNealy, Top debutant, +800 (DraftKings)
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The Master’s Tournament Winner Best Bets
Let’s rule out Scheffler and McIlroy to start. Either man could win the green jacket this Sunday and it wouldn’t be a surprise — well, McIlroy breaking his 11-year major drought at any venue would constitute a mild surprise at this point, but I digress. These aren’t good bang-for-your-buck plays.
That being said, Augusta National is not somewhere to go looking for big upsets. The Masters historically favors golfers who are not only in good form but also established; 14 of the last 16 winners had at least four career PGA Tour wins.
That’s why I’m leaning Jon Rahm this week. He’s finished between second and ninth in all five of his LIV Golf starts this year, and he leads the tour in birdie average (5.07 per round). If that doesn’t do much for you, remember that he’s just two years removed from winning a green jacket and is fired up to bury the memories of his weak major season in 2024.
Jon Rahm, Tournament winner, +1400 (FanDuel)
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