The Philadelphia Phillies (8-3) will try to secure a series victory against the slumping Atlanta Braves (2-9) when the National League East rivals square off Thursday. Philadelphia lost the series opener on Tuesday, but responded with a dramatic 4-3 win on Wednesday. Shortstop Trea Turner hit a tiebreaking home run in the ninth inning, and Atlanta was unable to score in the bottom half of the inning. The last six games involving the Phillies have been decided by two runs or fewer.
First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET from Truist Park in Atlanta. The Braves are -125 favorites (risk $125 to win $100) in the latest Braves vs. Phillies odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Phillies are +105 underdogs. The over/under for total runs scored is 7.5.
SportsLine’s model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Here are the MLB best bets for Phillies vs. Braves on Thursday:
Phillies +1.5 runs (-184)
Two of Philadelphia’s three losses this season have come by a combined four runs, while Atlanta only has two victories in its first 11 games. The Phillies played another close game on Wednesday night, using timely home runs in the seventh and ninth innings to get level in the series. The top of their lineup is off to a hot start this season, as Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper are each batting .275 or better. Starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA through his first two starts of the season, so the model has the Phillies covering this spread in over 70% of simulations, while the implied odds suggest they cover just 64% of the time. FanDuel Sportsbook has the best line at -184.
Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 strikeouts (-154)
Luzardo opened the season by fanning 11 batters across five innings at Washington, and he followed it up with eight strikeouts in seven innings against the Dodgers last week. The 27-year-old has allowed just two earned runs in those 12 frames, cementing himself as a reliable starter in Philadelphia’s loaded rotation. Atlanta has struck out 103 times in 11 games as a team, with seven of its starters striking out on Wednesday. The model has Luzardo finishing with 6.5 strikeouts in this start, providing plenty of value at these odds. FanDuel has the best price for this prop at -154.
Over 7.5 runs (+100)
These teams easily cleared this number in the series opener on Tuesday, combining for 12 runs on 20 hits. They came up just short on Wednesday, but Philadelphia’s offense is averaging nearly five runs per game. The Phillies rank fourth in the majors in team batting average (.265) and are tied for fifth in walks. Atlanta’s offense has not been able to get going thus far, but it is only a matter of time with bats like Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna in the lineup. SportsLine’s model has these teams combining for more than nine runs in this contest, with the Over cashing in well over 60% of simulations. DraftKings is offering the best price at +100.
Want more MLB picks for Thursday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB picks for Braves vs. Phillies on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every game at SportsLine.
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
Blue Jays’ Daulton Varsho falls, makes behind-the-back grab to rob Red Sox’s Jarren Duran of hit
Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho pulled off an improbable play that is immediately up for catch of the year.In the top of the fourth inning, Boston Red Sox leadoff hitter Jarren Duran hit a fly ball toward the wall in center field. Varsho ran toward the wall but tripped at the warning track, rolled, got up on one knee and tracked the ball before sticking his glove behind his back to catch it.The incredible play comes after the Blue Jays activated Varsho off the injured list earlier in the day to make his season debut. The reigning Gold Glove winner missed the first 28 games of the season while recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. HOW— pic.twitter.com/ianiIVKdWe — MLB (@MLB) April 30, 2025Last season, Varsho hit .214/.293/.407 with 58 RBIs in 136 games with Toronto. He’s in his third year […]
Milton Neves indica técnico para seleção brasileira após negativa de Ancelotti: “Nada de Jorge Jesus”
Jorge Jesus, técnico do Al-Hilal (Divulgação/X @Alhilal_FC) Milton Neves lamentou o fim das conversas entre CBF e Carlo Ancelotti. Logo após um impasse entre o técnico italiano e o Real Madrid para a sua liberação, as partes optaram por não dar prosseguimento na negociação. O jornalista não escondeu sua frustração com a vinda de Ancelotti, até então encaminhada, não ter evoluído. “Era bom demais para ser verdade!”, exclamou em seu blog no UOL. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE Na visão do colunista, o treinador europeu é um dos melhores do mundo e sua vinda para a seleção brasileira visando a Copa do Mundo 2026 seria um grande acréscimo para o escrete canarinho. Milton Neves faz coro por Abel Ferreira Deste modo, Miltão ressaltou sua rejeição ao nome de Jorge Jesus. Assim, voltou a pedir Abel Ferreira como o sucessor de Dorival Júnior, mandando […]
Milton Neves indica técnico para seleção brasileira após negativa de Ancelotti: “Nada de Jorge Jesus”
Jorge Jesus, técnico do Al-Hilal (Divulgação/X @Alhilal_FC) Milton Neves lamentou o fim das conversas entre CBF e Carlo Ancelotti. Logo após um impasse entre o técnico italiano e o Real Madrid para a sua liberação, as partes optaram por não dar prosseguimento na negociação. O jornalista não escondeu sua frustração com a vinda de Ancelotti, até então encaminhada, não ter evoluído. “Era bom demais para ser verdade!”, exclamou em seu blog no UOL. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE Na visão do colunista, o treinador europeu é um dos melhores do mundo e sua vinda para a seleção brasileira visando a Copa do Mundo 2026 seria um grande acréscimo para o escrete canarinho. Milton Neves faz coro por Abel Ferreira Deste modo, Miltão ressaltou sua rejeição ao nome de Jorge Jesus. Assim, voltou a pedir Abel Ferreira como o sucessor de Dorival Júnior, mandando […]
Aided by epic Bucks collapse, Pacers advance with thrilling OT win
An incredible Game 5 collapse by the Milwaukee Bucks stunned NBA fans Tuesday night as Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers closed out their first-round playoff series with a dramatic 119-118 overtime victory.The Bucks held a 20-point lead early in the game, only to see the Pacers battle back and eventually force overtime. Milwaukee then built a seven-point lead in the extra period before falling apart.AdvertisementIndiana’s stunning turnaround began with 40 seconds left in OT and Milwaukee leading, 118-111. After corralling a rebound off a missed free throw, Pacers forward Pascal Siakam passed it to guard Andrew Nembhard for a deep 3 to cut the deficit to four and force a Bucks timeout. Nembhard added to his heroics with a steal shortly after the inbounds pass, setting the stage for Haliburton.A timely and-1 by Haliburton after a foul on Bucks […]
Why Rick Tocchet left the Canucks and what it means for their offseason
Rick Tocchet and Vancouver Canucks hockey operations leadership spent last weekend in meetings, discussing the difficult year they’d just endured, the future of the organization and their plans for a high stakes, all-in summer.Less than a week later, Tocchet and his agent informed Canucks president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford that he’d decided not to return to Vancouver as head coach.As the Tocchet saga reached its conclusion this week, it really wasn’t a back-and-forth negotiation. There was nothing adversarial or acrimonious about it.The Canucks “stepped up” financially, according to two league sources. Keeping Tocchet was the club’s first choice, a fact that Rutherford wasn’t going to shy away from Tuesday simply because the outcome was a disappointing one from the team’s perspective.AdvertisementAs Tocchet wrestled with his decision over the past week, which was an arduous process for him, it wasn’t […]
Blue Jays CF Daulton Varsho makes season debut with wildest, weirdest catch of the year
Daulton Varsho certainly made a catch on Tuesday. But was it a great catch?Very, very few people could ever flash their glove like the Toronto Blue Jays center fielder did in the seventh inning (video above), but he only needed to do it because he tripped over his own feet on the warning track. It went from being a brutal error to one of the most incredible highlights of the MLB season, with both the culpability and credit on Varsho.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSo maybe not a great catch, but definitely an entertaining one, and a weird one, and one that probably leaves you more impressed with a player who made the rare transition from catcher to Gold Glove center fielder. We could get behind calling that the catch of the year.The 28-year-old outfielder was making his season debut after missing most of April […]
Related
Blue Jays’ Daulton Varsho falls, makes behind-the-back grab to rob Red Sox’s Jarren Duran of hit
Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho pulled off an improbable play that is immediately up for catch of the year.In the top of the fourth inning, Boston Red Sox leadoff hitter Jarren Duran hit a fly ball toward the wall in center field. Varsho ran toward the wall but tripped at the warning track, rolled, got up on one knee and tracked the ball before sticking his glove behind his back to catch it.The incredible play comes after the Blue Jays activated Varsho off the injured list earlier in the day to make his season debut. The reigning Gold Glove winner missed the first 28 games of the season while recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. HOW— pic.twitter.com/ianiIVKdWe — MLB (@MLB) April 30, 2025Last season, Varsho hit .214/.293/.407 with 58 RBIs in 136 games with Toronto. He’s in his third year […]
Milton Neves indica técnico para seleção brasileira após negativa de Ancelotti: “Nada de Jorge Jesus”
Jorge Jesus, técnico do Al-Hilal (Divulgação/X @Alhilal_FC) Milton Neves lamentou o fim das conversas entre CBF e Carlo Ancelotti. Logo após um impasse entre o técnico italiano e o Real Madrid para a sua liberação, as partes optaram por não dar prosseguimento na negociação. O jornalista não escondeu sua frustração com a vinda de Ancelotti, até então encaminhada, não ter evoluído. “Era bom demais para ser verdade!”, exclamou em seu blog no UOL. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE Na visão do colunista, o treinador europeu é um dos melhores do mundo e sua vinda para a seleção brasileira visando a Copa do Mundo 2026 seria um grande acréscimo para o escrete canarinho. Milton Neves faz coro por Abel Ferreira Deste modo, Miltão ressaltou sua rejeição ao nome de Jorge Jesus. Assim, voltou a pedir Abel Ferreira como o sucessor de Dorival Júnior, mandando […]
Milton Neves indica técnico para seleção brasileira após negativa de Ancelotti: “Nada de Jorge Jesus”
Jorge Jesus, técnico do Al-Hilal (Divulgação/X @Alhilal_FC) Milton Neves lamentou o fim das conversas entre CBF e Carlo Ancelotti. Logo após um impasse entre o técnico italiano e o Real Madrid para a sua liberação, as partes optaram por não dar prosseguimento na negociação. O jornalista não escondeu sua frustração com a vinda de Ancelotti, até então encaminhada, não ter evoluído. “Era bom demais para ser verdade!”, exclamou em seu blog no UOL. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE Na visão do colunista, o treinador europeu é um dos melhores do mundo e sua vinda para a seleção brasileira visando a Copa do Mundo 2026 seria um grande acréscimo para o escrete canarinho. Milton Neves faz coro por Abel Ferreira Deste modo, Miltão ressaltou sua rejeição ao nome de Jorge Jesus. Assim, voltou a pedir Abel Ferreira como o sucessor de Dorival Júnior, mandando […]
Aided by epic Bucks collapse, Pacers advance with thrilling OT win
An incredible Game 5 collapse by the Milwaukee Bucks stunned NBA fans Tuesday night as Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers closed out their first-round playoff series with a dramatic 119-118 overtime victory.The Bucks held a 20-point lead early in the game, only to see the Pacers battle back and eventually force overtime. Milwaukee then built a seven-point lead in the extra period before falling apart.AdvertisementIndiana’s stunning turnaround began with 40 seconds left in OT and Milwaukee leading, 118-111. After corralling a rebound off a missed free throw, Pacers forward Pascal Siakam passed it to guard Andrew Nembhard for a deep 3 to cut the deficit to four and force a Bucks timeout. Nembhard added to his heroics with a steal shortly after the inbounds pass, setting the stage for Haliburton.A timely and-1 by Haliburton after a foul on Bucks […]
Why Rick Tocchet left the Canucks and what it means for their offseason
Rick Tocchet and Vancouver Canucks hockey operations leadership spent last weekend in meetings, discussing the difficult year they’d just endured, the future of the organization and their plans for a high stakes, all-in summer.Less than a week later, Tocchet and his agent informed Canucks president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford that he’d decided not to return to Vancouver as head coach.As the Tocchet saga reached its conclusion this week, it really wasn’t a back-and-forth negotiation. There was nothing adversarial or acrimonious about it.The Canucks “stepped up” financially, according to two league sources. Keeping Tocchet was the club’s first choice, a fact that Rutherford wasn’t going to shy away from Tuesday simply because the outcome was a disappointing one from the team’s perspective.AdvertisementAs Tocchet wrestled with his decision over the past week, which was an arduous process for him, it wasn’t […]
Blue Jays CF Daulton Varsho makes season debut with wildest, weirdest catch of the year
Daulton Varsho certainly made a catch on Tuesday. But was it a great catch?Very, very few people could ever flash their glove like the Toronto Blue Jays center fielder did in the seventh inning (video above), but he only needed to do it because he tripped over his own feet on the warning track. It went from being a brutal error to one of the most incredible highlights of the MLB season, with both the culpability and credit on Varsho.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSo maybe not a great catch, but definitely an entertaining one, and a weird one, and one that probably leaves you more impressed with a player who made the rare transition from catcher to Gold Glove center fielder. We could get behind calling that the catch of the year.The 28-year-old outfielder was making his season debut after missing most of April […]
Be the first to leave a comment