I’m gonna be honest: I don’t know what to make of Kevin Gausman right now.
I want to believe that he’s back to being an ace after a season where he was clearly pitching at less than 100% health due to a shoulder issue. And he sure looked like that on Wednesday, as he limited the Red Sox to just one unearned run on four hits over eight innings with 10 strikeouts. That’s to quality starts in his first three tries, and he only came up two outs short in the other start, with his ERA now down to 2.33 for the season. For a guy with a long track record of ace-level production, shouldn’t it be pretty easy to buy into this strong start?
It’s not easy at all, actually, dear reader! The version of Gausman we have seen this season just doesn’t look very much like the best versions of Gausman we’ve seen in the past.
When Gausman was an ace, he did so largely on the strength of his splitter. It wasn’t his only pitch, obviously, but it was far and away his best pitch – in 2023, for example, Gausman’s four-seamer was pretty good, with a .307 wOBA allowed, but his splitter had a remarkable .255 mark against. And most of his whiffs came with that splitter, too – in that same 2023 season, Gausman’s splitter generated 261 whiffs, compared to 136 for the four-seamer and 41 for his slider.
Gausman lost his feel for the splitter a bit last season, and that gap shrank as a result. He still had 137 whiffs with his four-seamer in 2024, but his splitter generated just 159, a 39% drop. And he struggled, posting his highest ERA since 2019 and his lowest strikeout rate since 2018. That pitch wasn’t just his bread and butter – it was the whole meal.
And Gausman’s splitter … still isn’t back! He had four whiffs with it on 19 swings Wednesday, which actually improved his whiff rate with the pitch to 13.5% for the season. It’s still generating plenty of weak contact, but it isn’t the same pitch that used to define his arsenal.
How did he find so much success Wednesday, then? He generated 13 of his 17 swinging strikes in the game on his four-seamer, which is the third-most he’s ever had with his four-seamer. And it’s not necessarily a fluke – his velocity was down a bit Wednesday, but it has been up prior to this, and he’s generated a lot more rise on the pitch, which is what you’re looking for if a fastball is going to miss a lot of bats.
But I just don’t have much faith in Wednesday being repeatable for Gausman. At the risk of oversimplifying, my skepticism mostly comes down to this: We’ve simply never seen a version of Gausman who has been consistently good without racking up a ton of whiffs with his splitter. His fastball looks legitimately better right now than it used to, but I just don’t buy that this is going to be a sustainable approach for him.
Maybe I’ll be wrong, but I’m using this start as an exit ramp from the Kevin Gausman experience in 2025. I think he can still be somewhat useful, like he was last season, maybe, but I don’t think we’re going to see a return to Fantasy ace status for Gausman. And if someone wants to value him that way based on Wednesday’s start and his superficially low ERA, take advantage.
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
How overly-cautious Aston Villa wasted an opportunity to reach the FA Cup final
The cameras lingered on crestfallen Aston Villa faces.One half of Wembley was despondent and increasingly empty. Supporters were leaving early and, such were the queues for the exits, many had their backs turned as Ismaila Sarr’s second goal — Crystal Palace’s third — went in.Any suckers for punishment who decided to glance over their shoulder would have seen a portrait of starkly different emotions. At the far end, Palace fans were a vibrant shade of red and blue, flags waving and people bouncing. Look closer and Villa’s players appeared pale and colourless as the realisation of a spurned opportunity set in.AdvertisementFew Villa fans hung around for full-time. Players tentatively approached those that did, a reflection of the passive nature of how they played, as Palace’s ‘Glad All Over’ anthem reverberated around Wembley. The internal mood was so despondent that Villa’s social […]
STJ barra novo recurso da Fifa em disputa contra empresa brasileira sobre ‘spray de barreira’
O Superior Tribunal de Justiça (STJ) negou seguimento ao recurso extraordinário apresentado pela Fifa, no caso envolvendo a acusação de violação de patente e quebra de boa-fé objetiva nas tratativas com a empresa brasileira Spuni Comércio de Produtos Esportivos e Marketing Ltda. O recurso tentava levar a discussão ao Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), sob a alegação de ofensa a preceitos constitucionais, o que foi rejeitado. Trata-se de mais um capítulo da disputa pelos direitos sobre o spray evanescente — usado para demarcar a distância da barreira em cobranças de falta — desenvolvido pela Spuni e que, segundo a empresa, foi indevidamente utilizado pela Fifa após tratativas negociais frustradas. A decisão que negou seguimento ao recurso foi assinada no dia 20 de abril pelo vice-presidente do STJ, ministro Luis Felipe Salomão. Segundo ele, a Corte reconheceu que a FIFA agiu em […]
David Moyes knows what he wants at Everton next season: A ruthless streak
Not for the first time, David Moyes had his head in his hands.The source of his frustration on this occasion was midfielder James Garner, who with time ticking away and Everton 1-0 down at Chelsea, had just sent a late corner straight into Robert Sanchez’s arms.Moyes was witnessing a familiar failing come back to haunt Everton. He places great stock in set pieces but has bemoaned his side’s poor delivery and execution already this season.AdvertisementOn Saturday, that absence of quality cost them a potential route back into the game as Chelsea teetered.In truth, Moyes had cut a frustrated figure throughout Saturday’s defeat.Sporting a baseball cap in the west London sun, he fumed early on at the fourth official after they took too long to punish some rough treatment on Beto close to the dugout. When Chelsea left-back Marc Cucurella complained, […]
Real e Barça têm mais dinheiro e poder do que os clubes brasileiros, mas também são capazes de cometer grandes erros
Não pude esperar o fim de Real Madrid x Barcelona, pela final da Copa do Rei da Espanha (o time catalão venceu na prorrogação), para escrever esta coluna. Mas também não pude fugir de falar desses dois rivais gigantes – tão distantes da realidade financeira do futebol brasileiro e tão próximos no aspecto cultural. Talvez por nunca terem aberto mão do modelo associativo, seus dirigentes ainda tomam decisões movidos pela paixão e se deixam influenciar pela opinião dos torcedores, muito mais do que uma SAF ou um clube com dono costuma fazer. O Barcelona é o pobre menino rico do futebol europeu. Há anos ouvimos falar da crise financeira em que o clube se meteu. Messi, Neymar e Suárez foram embora, e era fácil imaginar que sem eles se encerraria uma era de conquistas. Mas foi curiosa a forma como […]
Análise: melhor atuação do Botafogo com Paiva amplia freguesia resistente contra Fluminense apático
A freguesia atual no Clássico Vovô tem sido capaz de inverter quaisquer prognósticos e resistir às turbulências de um dos lados. Mesmo em crise sob o comando de Renato Paiva, o Botafogo superou o Fluminense por 2 a 0 no Nilton Santos — gols de Vitinho e Savarino —, pela sexta rodada do Brasileirão, e impôs a primeira derrota a Renato Gaúcho nesta passagem. O clube ampliou a sua maior sequência de vitórias contra o tricolor: oito. Somando um empate neste período, são nove jogos invicto. Mais do que celebrar este domínio, o torcedor voltou a ver uma equipe dinâmica em campo e que basicamente anulou o adversário. E os jogadores podem reaver a tranquilidade necessária para dar sequência ao trabalho — A vitória é importante, pois traz confiança, mas temos que manter a humildade. A gente preza muito pelo […]
Gordonova vítězná smeč vyrovnala sérii mezi Denverem a Clippers
Denver nutně potřeboval vyhrát a od začátku za vítězstvím šel, ještě na začátku poslední čtvrtiny vedl o 22 bodů. Clippers hnaní domácím publikem však dokázali v poslední čtvrtině utkání zvrátit a minutu před koncem šli do těsného vedení. O další obrat se postaral Nikola Jokič, na druhé straně pak Ivica Zubac po útočném doskoku vyrovnal na 99:99.Zápas se snažil rozhodnout Jokič, jeho střela z otočky však byla dlouhá a letěla mimo obroučku. Ve vzduchu se ale zjevil Gordon, na kterého obrana Clippers zapomněla, a současně se závěrečnou sirénou zarazil míč do koše rovnou ze vzduchu. Znovu tak ukázal své mimořádné atletické schopnosti, kterými uchvacoval v soutěži smečařů.Šlo o první vítěznou smeč v poslední vteřině v historii play off od roku 1997, od kdy se tyto údaje zaznamenávají. Rozhodčí ještě situaci přezkoumali na videu, jestli se Gordon už nedotýkal míče ve chvíli, kdy se rozsvítilo červené světlo na koši. „Bylo to hodně těsné, ale […]
Related
How overly-cautious Aston Villa wasted an opportunity to reach the FA Cup final
The cameras lingered on crestfallen Aston Villa faces.One half of Wembley was despondent and increasingly empty. Supporters were leaving early and, such were the queues for the exits, many had their backs turned as Ismaila Sarr’s second goal — Crystal Palace’s third — went in.Any suckers for punishment who decided to glance over their shoulder would have seen a portrait of starkly different emotions. At the far end, Palace fans were a vibrant shade of red and blue, flags waving and people bouncing. Look closer and Villa’s players appeared pale and colourless as the realisation of a spurned opportunity set in.AdvertisementFew Villa fans hung around for full-time. Players tentatively approached those that did, a reflection of the passive nature of how they played, as Palace’s ‘Glad All Over’ anthem reverberated around Wembley. The internal mood was so despondent that Villa’s social […]
STJ barra novo recurso da Fifa em disputa contra empresa brasileira sobre ‘spray de barreira’
O Superior Tribunal de Justiça (STJ) negou seguimento ao recurso extraordinário apresentado pela Fifa, no caso envolvendo a acusação de violação de patente e quebra de boa-fé objetiva nas tratativas com a empresa brasileira Spuni Comércio de Produtos Esportivos e Marketing Ltda. O recurso tentava levar a discussão ao Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), sob a alegação de ofensa a preceitos constitucionais, o que foi rejeitado. Trata-se de mais um capítulo da disputa pelos direitos sobre o spray evanescente — usado para demarcar a distância da barreira em cobranças de falta — desenvolvido pela Spuni e que, segundo a empresa, foi indevidamente utilizado pela Fifa após tratativas negociais frustradas. A decisão que negou seguimento ao recurso foi assinada no dia 20 de abril pelo vice-presidente do STJ, ministro Luis Felipe Salomão. Segundo ele, a Corte reconheceu que a FIFA agiu em […]
David Moyes knows what he wants at Everton next season: A ruthless streak
Not for the first time, David Moyes had his head in his hands.The source of his frustration on this occasion was midfielder James Garner, who with time ticking away and Everton 1-0 down at Chelsea, had just sent a late corner straight into Robert Sanchez’s arms.Moyes was witnessing a familiar failing come back to haunt Everton. He places great stock in set pieces but has bemoaned his side’s poor delivery and execution already this season.AdvertisementOn Saturday, that absence of quality cost them a potential route back into the game as Chelsea teetered.In truth, Moyes had cut a frustrated figure throughout Saturday’s defeat.Sporting a baseball cap in the west London sun, he fumed early on at the fourth official after they took too long to punish some rough treatment on Beto close to the dugout. When Chelsea left-back Marc Cucurella complained, […]
Real e Barça têm mais dinheiro e poder do que os clubes brasileiros, mas também são capazes de cometer grandes erros
Não pude esperar o fim de Real Madrid x Barcelona, pela final da Copa do Rei da Espanha (o time catalão venceu na prorrogação), para escrever esta coluna. Mas também não pude fugir de falar desses dois rivais gigantes – tão distantes da realidade financeira do futebol brasileiro e tão próximos no aspecto cultural. Talvez por nunca terem aberto mão do modelo associativo, seus dirigentes ainda tomam decisões movidos pela paixão e se deixam influenciar pela opinião dos torcedores, muito mais do que uma SAF ou um clube com dono costuma fazer. O Barcelona é o pobre menino rico do futebol europeu. Há anos ouvimos falar da crise financeira em que o clube se meteu. Messi, Neymar e Suárez foram embora, e era fácil imaginar que sem eles se encerraria uma era de conquistas. Mas foi curiosa a forma como […]
Análise: melhor atuação do Botafogo com Paiva amplia freguesia resistente contra Fluminense apático
A freguesia atual no Clássico Vovô tem sido capaz de inverter quaisquer prognósticos e resistir às turbulências de um dos lados. Mesmo em crise sob o comando de Renato Paiva, o Botafogo superou o Fluminense por 2 a 0 no Nilton Santos — gols de Vitinho e Savarino —, pela sexta rodada do Brasileirão, e impôs a primeira derrota a Renato Gaúcho nesta passagem. O clube ampliou a sua maior sequência de vitórias contra o tricolor: oito. Somando um empate neste período, são nove jogos invicto. Mais do que celebrar este domínio, o torcedor voltou a ver uma equipe dinâmica em campo e que basicamente anulou o adversário. E os jogadores podem reaver a tranquilidade necessária para dar sequência ao trabalho — A vitória é importante, pois traz confiança, mas temos que manter a humildade. A gente preza muito pelo […]
Gordonova vítězná smeč vyrovnala sérii mezi Denverem a Clippers
Denver nutně potřeboval vyhrát a od začátku za vítězstvím šel, ještě na začátku poslední čtvrtiny vedl o 22 bodů. Clippers hnaní domácím publikem však dokázali v poslední čtvrtině utkání zvrátit a minutu před koncem šli do těsného vedení. O další obrat se postaral Nikola Jokič, na druhé straně pak Ivica Zubac po útočném doskoku vyrovnal na 99:99.Zápas se snažil rozhodnout Jokič, jeho střela z otočky však byla dlouhá a letěla mimo obroučku. Ve vzduchu se ale zjevil Gordon, na kterého obrana Clippers zapomněla, a současně se závěrečnou sirénou zarazil míč do koše rovnou ze vzduchu. Znovu tak ukázal své mimořádné atletické schopnosti, kterými uchvacoval v soutěži smečařů.Šlo o první vítěznou smeč v poslední vteřině v historii play off od roku 1997, od kdy se tyto údaje zaznamenávají. Rozhodčí ještě situaci přezkoumali na videu, jestli se Gordon už nedotýkal míče ve chvíli, kdy se rozsvítilo červené světlo na koši. „Bylo to hodně těsné, ale […]
Be the first to leave a comment