As a prospect coming through the Los Angeles Angels farm system, Kyren Paris wasn’t exactly known for his power. He never hit more than 14 home runs in a minor league season and hit 34 total over 1,187 at-bats across all levels. He also only hit one home run over his first 91 MLB at-bats in stints with the Angels in 2023 and 2024, but that hasn’t stopped him from getting off to a red-hot start with five home runs in 25 at-bats in 2025. Suddenly, he could be a player worth considering for your MLB home run picks.
You can still get value adding Paris to your MLB HR picks as well, with FanDuel Sportsbook offering +870 on him to go deep despite the fact that he’s hit four home runs in his last three games. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. On Tuesday, it called Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run for a +650 payout. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Wednesday. These three picks can be parlayed for +14870 odds and would pay out $747.50 on a $5 bet.
Jackson Chourio HR (+550)
As a 20-year-old rookie, Chourio lived up to his top prospect billing by slashing .275/.327/.464 with 22 home runs 79 RBI and 21 stolen bases. Now the expectation is that he takes another step towards superstardom and he’s off to a great start, with a .994 OPS and four home runs with an NL-leading 16 RBIs. He’ll have the benefit of playing in Coors Field on Thursday against Ryan Feltner, who has given up a home run in both of his starts this season.
“Chourio started the season 0-5 with 5Ks, but since opening day he has a hit in every game and has hit 4 HRs over the last 7 games,” SportsLine Date Scientist Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at Chourio to homer at +360 and while it isn’t the typical Coors weather where the ball is expected to be flying, we still think if Chourio gets a hold of the ball it should have no problem getting out.” You can find the best price for a Chourio home run today at DraftKings.
Mike Trout HR (+400)
The first eight years put Trout on a pace to become an all-time great, but injuries have taken their toll over the last six years. However, he’s still a hitter to be feared when he’s healthy and in the lineup, as evidenced by the fact that he homered in three straight games earlier this month. The three-time AL MVP gets a juicy matchup on Thursday and the best price you can find is +400 at BetRivers, but the parlay price we’re playing at DraftKings is +290.
“Trout has seen the ball well against Zack Littell, going 3-5 with a HR, a double and a single. The weather is expected to be hitter friendly in Tampa with the home run index at an 8 out of 10 … We set the line at +330 for Trout to hit a HR today,” said Fetner of his Thursday MLB HR odds.
Brandon Lowe HR (+525)
The slugging left-handed second baseman only has a .282 OPS against left-handed pitching, but he’s posted a stellar 1.020 OPS against right-handers. He’ll take on Angels righty Jose Soriano on Thursday and Soriano gave up two home runs in his last start against the Guardians. The ballpark conditions set up nicely for Lowe today as well.
“We continue to have strong value on Lowe when facing right-handed pitchers at home in Tampa,” stated Fetner. “He has a short porch and favorable weather today.” The model would set the line for Lowe at +340, creating plenty of value with BetMGM offering +525.
More Thursday MLB picks
You’ve seen the best MLB home run picks from the model. Now, see today’s best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who’s on a commanding 40-20 roll on baseball picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert on a 40-20 roll.
There is even more expert advice to see before locking in your MLB picks today. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Jason La Canfora’s best bets, all from the expert who has nailed four straight MLB game props.
You can also visit SportsLine now to see the model’s MLB score projections and props for every game on Thursday, all from the model on a 34-19 roll.
This news was originally published on this post .
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