MLB roundtable: Will torpedo bats be banned? Can the Braves bounce back?

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1. Which current, early-season division leader — one American League, one National League — do you believe has the best chance of sticking there in 2025?

Thosar: The Texas Rangers (9-4) and the Chicago Cubs (9-6). The Rangers are off to a strong start, and they’re not even playing their best yet. It goes to show that their injury-ravaged 2024 season may have been just that, and when they have better overall roster health, they’re still a top contender in the league. The Rangers will be absolutely lethal once guys like Corey Seager, Adolis García, Marcus Semien and Joc Pederson start heating up. While it’s unfortunate that Wyatt Langford, who already has four home runs on the season, is dealing with an oblique strain, it looks like it’s mild and the slugging outfielder can return to the roster on the quicker side. If the pitching staff can stay healthy, the Rangers have a solid chance at holding onto their division lead. 

As for the Kyle Tucker-powered Cubs, the NL Central is essentially theirs to lose. The division is arguably the weakest in baseball and the Cubs did just enough this offseason by trading for Tucker to remain the favorites to win it. As for how deep of a run they’ll have should they make the playoffs, that’s another discussion. But they at least look poised to hold on.

Kavner: The Cubs and the Rangers. I still think the Cubs should have spent more to solidify their place as legit contenders after going all in on a year of Kyle Tucker, but they should have enough to win their first division title since the shortened 2020 season. That’s more a result of the rest of the NL Central inspiring little fear. That said, I do expect the Reds to give them a run at some point this summer.

The Rangers have jumped out to an early division lead despite their offense still searching for its form. There’s no way Marcus Semien (.373 OPS), Jake Burger (.445) and Joc Pederson (.341) all perform this poorly long-term, and better days should still be ahead for Corey Seager (.712) and Adolis García (.682). I’m far more concerned about the early offensive struggles of the Astros and Mariners, who figure to be their top competitors in the division. It’ll depend a lot on the health of their pitching, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Rangers representing the American League in the World Series.

2. Which basement dweller do you see turning things around?

Kavner: It’s been a putrid start for the Atlanta Braves, but there’s too much talent there to remain this bad all season. Yes, there were concerns last year after their record-setting offense took a significant step back. Clearly, firing longtime hitting coach Kevin Seitzer hasn’t provided a remedy, and the Jurickson Profar suspension is a major blow. The lack of depth on the pitching staff is also showing, and Chris Sale’s dropoff is troubling. So, there are some problems here.

But at some point, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider will be back, and some or all of Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies will get going. With the power among this group of hitters, there’s no way they finish the year ranked 25th in home runs, as they do now (tied with the lowly Pirates). FanGraphs still gives them a 65.9% chance to make the playoffs after a 2-9 start, and I imagine come September they will still be making a push for a division title. Better days are ahead.

Thosar: The Braves (2-9). Not only would I be completely shocked if they continue to struggle, but if this stretch of ho-hum performances lasts even another month, we might have our first major managerial firing of the year. That axing seems unlikely because Atlanta is inching closer to getting superstar reinforcements off the injured list. Barring a setback, Ronald Acuña Jr. is expected to make his season debut sometime next month. Ace Spencer Strider is completing the final stages of his long and arduous Tommy John rehab. Those two additions alone should provide a much-needed spark, and in the meantime, the Braves lineup is beginning to hit the ball harder while guys like Austin Riley are starting to breakout from their very early season struggles. 

Anything can happen, but the NL East is a beast, so the Braves need to show some urgency before the season gets away from them.

3. This past weekend, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays agreed to a massive 14-year extension worth $500 million. Were the Jays right to substantially increase their contract offer from earlier in the year? Was Guerrero Jr. right to skip out on free agency?

Thosar: In a rare instance, the Jays actually increased their offer. If they had done that with previous free agents, who knows how loaded their roster could be right now. And, from Guerrero Jr.’s perspective, it’s difficult if not ridiculous to turn down the $325 million signing bonus that’s part of his $500 million contract, particularly if he ends up having a down year. Give credit to the Blue Jays for doing what they had to do. Seriously, they had to get this extension done with Guerrero before he hit free agency because it would’ve plummeted the future of the organization had they not. He’s homegrown, born in Canada and the face of the franchise. If the Jays were going to pony up for anyone, it had to be him.

Now, we can go back and forth on the length of the contract (14 years) and whether a first baseman is worth $500 million, but Guerrero received a premium because he’s just 26 years old, and we’ve seen how the market treats players who are well under 30 (looking at you, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto). I’m looking forward to the ripple effect this deal has around baseball. The Mets, which seemed like a perfect destination for Guerrero if he had hit free agency, now seemingly have to stick with Pete Alonso at first long-term. Kyle Tucker, who is in a contract year at 28 years old, now figures to earn somewhere in the vicinity of Guerrero’s contract. So, good for the Vladdy and the Jays. Even if 29 other fan bases are unhappy, Toronto is glad its ownership group made sure the pillar of the club will end his career as a Blue Jay.

Kavner: As crazy as the numbers may seem for a slugging first baseman with defensive limitations, this felt like something the Blue Jays had to do to chart a path toward long-term contention. The front office is surely feeling the pressure to deliver soon, and after finishing as the bridesmaids on a number of high-profile free agents in recent years, keeping their best player — especially a native of Canada with obvious ties to the franchise — and getting a win here felt paramount.

For Guerrero, a $500 million guarantee is tough to turn down, especially if he wanted to stay. It removed the danger that could come from a down year, and a $325 million signing bonus made it almost impossible to pass up. This is a win for a player with his profile, even one with MVP potential.

4. Should the Blue Jays also push to extend or retain Bo Bichette, who, like Guerrero Jr. was, is slated to hit free agency after the 2025 season?

Kavner: The Blue Jays are in an interesting spot with Bichette. The longer they wait to make a decision, the more data they’ll have in place to determine if last year’s struggles were simply an outlier. Then again, if Bichette starts to return to his usual form, the asking price will rise precipitously.

The Jays should know better than any team how much Bichette’s injuries played a factor in last season’s dropoff. There are positive underlying signs of a bounce back in 2025. Bichette’s quality of contact numbers have improved dramatically, and he’s getting the ball in the air more often. That hasn’t amounted to a power surge yet, but if he continues hitting the ball this hard, it feels like it’s coming.

So, really, it depends on how much a Bichette extension will inhibit the Blue Jays from building further. If they can get Bichette at a discount now, I think it’s worth the risk. At the least, it’s worth a conversation with Bichette’s representatives to see what the shortstop would accept, especially since he at least sounds open to staying. If he wants to be paid like a top-five shortstop right now, I would hold off. Keeping Guerrero as the cornerstone was the most important thing.

Thosar: A Bichette extension is not as clear-cut as Guerrero’s after the shortstop’s down year in 2024 threw everything off. After posting a career WAR of 17.7 and OPS+ of 126 from 2019-2023, all while receiving two All-Star awards and down-ballot MVP votes, Bichette was 30 points worse than the league-average hitter last year. He dealt with leg injuries that could’ve impacted his performance, and if that’s the case, the Blue Jays know Bichette better than anyone else and should be fine with overlooking those concerns. Bichette has said he wants to remain a Blue Jay and play alongside Guerrero long-term, so the Jays should at least see where extension discussions take them. A hometown discount might not be out of the question. 

At the same time, the free-agent shortstop class in 2026 is pretty unappealing, with Trevor Story (opt-out), Ha-Seong Kim (opt-out), Orlando Arcia (club option), Miguel Rojas, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Amed Rosario and Paul DeJong the only other names set to hit the market. It’s tough, but ultimately I think the Jays should let Bichette’s season play out before picking up contract discussions again in the offseason.

5. What’s your snap judgment on whether torpedo bats will remain legal in MLB games in the long run?

Thosar: Even before MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said he loved the torpedo bats, which is as good an indication as any that they’re not going anywhere anytime soon, I fully expected them to remain legal. Hitters are still playing catch-up against pitchers — yes, even despite the fact that sticky substances have been banned — and a slight change in equipment, however effective or innovative, won’t change that. Take the Yankees’ results from their start to the season as an example. After crushing the ball against lackluster pitching staffs, the Yankees offense has mightily struggled against excellent arms like Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen and Tarik Skubal. Pitchers might get brutally punished for their mistakes due to the torpedo bats, like we saw with the Yankees teeing off Nestor Cortes. But it’s still just as difficult to hit a baseball with or without one.

Kavner: I don’t see them getting banned anytime soon. While pitchers continue adding velocity and utilizing pitching labs to optimize their performance, there aren’t many ways for batters to keep up. If Major League Baseball wants more action, and if torpedo bats have the potential to increase power and balls in play, I have a hard time thinking the league will prohibit them. Right now, though, we just don’t have enough data to show how game-changing the bats will be.

They were the talk of baseball when the Yankees had a record-breaking opening weekend using them against a depleted Brewers pitching staff. After hitting 15 homers in their first three games, the Yankees have 11 over their last nine. So, the jury’s still out. I’m curious to see if more players see their bat speed increase as torpedo bats become more prevalent, but we’ll need a bigger sample before we start talking about altering bat rules.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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