Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Guardians starter against White Sox at plus odds

The Toronto Blue Jays are one of three teams attempting to complete series sweeps when they visit the Boston Red Sox for the finale of their four-game set at Fenway Park on Thursday. After being on the wrong side of a three-game sweep against the New York Mets at Citi Field last weekend, Toronto has reeled off three straight victories in Beantown and sends Chris Bassitt (1-0, 0.71 ERA) to the mound in search of a fourth. The Red Sox, who had won five in a row prior to this series, counter with Walker Buehler (1-1, 8.68). Buehler has struggled in his first season with Boston, allowing nine runs over 9 1/3 innings in his first two starts.

The Bassitt-Buehler pitching matchup is one of six on Thursday’s MLB slate. The Guardians‘ Gavin Williams (0-0, 4.50) faces Jonathan Cannon (0-1, 3.12) of the White Sox, and the Brewers‘ Quinn Priester (3-6, 4.71 in 2024) opposes the Rockies‘ Ryan Feltner (0-0, 3.60) as Cleveland and Milwaukee go for three-game sweeps. Meanwhile, the Phillies‘ Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 150) squares off against the Braves‘ Spencer Schwellenbach (1-0, 0.00) in the rubber match between the NL East rivals.

For the Bassitt-Buehler matchup, sportsbooks have set Bassitt’s total strikeout player prop at 5.5, while Buehler’s is 3.5. Buehler’s prop is the only one that rates better than 3.5 stars on the SportsLine Projection Model’s five-star scale. According to the model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, Bassitt Over 5.5 strikeouts rates as a 3.5, while Buehler Over 3.5 rates as a 4.

There are two pitcher strikeout player props for Thursday that the model has rated at 4.5 and one rated at 4 that returns plus money. Here they are:

Gavin Williams Under 5.5 strikeouts (+103) vs. White Sox (1:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts

Despite owning a 2-9 record thanks to their current seven-game losing streak, the White Sox have managed to make good contact this season, as only four teams have struck out a fewer amount of times than their total of 87 this season. Williams recorded five strikeouts over three innings against the Angels in his last start but had only two across five frames in his season debut versus the Royals. The 25-year-old right-hander lasted just four innings in his lone career outing against the White Sox and fanned only two batters.

Bailey Ober Over 4.5 strikeouts (-125) vs. Royals (2:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.8 strikeouts

Ober has worked only 6 2/3 innings over his first two starts of the season but has registered eight strikeouts, including five against the Astros in his last turn. In three outings against the Royals last season, the 29-year-old right-hander fanned 12 batters across 13 1/3 frames. Ober has recorded 45 strikeouts over 44 1/3 innings in 10 career starts versus Kansas City, so if he can last at least five frames on Thursday, he should eclipse this number.

Walker Buehler Over 3.5 strikeouts (+123) vs. Blue Jays (4:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 3.8 strikeouts

After winning his second World Series championship with the Dodgers last season, Buehler signed a one-year, $21.05 million contract with the Red Sox in December. His first two starts for Boston have been forgettable, even though he picked up a victory against the Cardinals last time out despite yielding five runs over five innings. The 30-year-old right-hander recorded five strikeouts in that outing and was stellar in his only career turn versus the Blue Jays in 2019, striking out eight batters while scattering five hits over seven scoreless frames.