UFC 314 predictions, odds, best bets: Main event prop, Paddy Pimblett among top picks to consider

UFC 314 is coming to Miami on Saturday night with a main event featuring a featherweight legend looking to regain the title he held for more than four years. In that main event, former champion Alexander Volkanovski faces rising star Diego Lopes with the vacant featherweight championship on the line.

Volkanovski won the title in December 2019 with a decision win over Max Holloway. The Aussie made five successful defenses of the championship before losing the belt when he was knocked out in his most recent fight by Ilia Topuria. Volkanovski has lost three of his four most recent fights, twice losing to lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in attempts to jump up in weight in an attempt to win the lightweight title in addition to the Topuria loss.

Topuria would go on to make the decision to move up to lightweight, leaving the title vacant and ready for Volkanovski to win again.

Lopes is getting his first shot at UFC gold on the strength of an impressive five-fight winning streak. In his most recent outing, Lopes won a decision over two-time title challenger Brian Ortega. 

After going 3-2 with our best bets for UFC 313, our 2025 record sits at 8-5. We’ll look to continue our roll on Saturday, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better.

UFC 314: Why Paddy Pimblett may be the in the perfect position to break out as a star with another big win

Brian Campbell

With that in mind, let’s take a look at our picks for the best bet for every fight on the UFC 314 main card.

Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes

Under 1.5 rounds (+114)

After a 2-4 start to his second stint in the UFC, Krylov has rattled off three consecutive wins. The one issue with that three-fight winning streak is that Krylov has been out of action for more than two years as a product of one fight falling through when his opponent fell ill and then Krylov’s own shoulder injury. Reyes has won back-to-back fights since a four-fight losing skid that began when he lost a decision to Jon Jones in a title fight Reyes deserved to win. After the Jones loss, Reyes suffered three knockout losses and his chin looked entirely shot. But after beating Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith, Reyes has some positive momentum again but seems at risk at all times in a fight. Because of all the negative factors at play and the ability of either man to score a finish, we like the chances of the fight ending before the halfway point.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva

Jean Silva via KO/TKO/DQ (-105)

Setting aside the abhorent comments Mitchell has repeatedly made, as well as the constant talk of demons and witchcraft and other nonsense, Silva is just the wrong kind of fight for him. Silva is aggressive and athletic in addition to fighting out of the red-hot Fighting Nerds team. In 15 career wins, Silva has finished 12 by knockout. Mitchell was absolutely crushed by Josh Emmett in a terrifying knockout. He came back to beat Kron Gracie after a year on the sidelines, but Gracie isn’t exactly the right guy to test how Mitchell reacts to strikes after Emmett cracked him. Mitchell needs takedowns early and often and to control the fight if he’s able to put it on the floor. I simply don’t think that is going to happen against someone as talented as Silva and Silva’s punches are enough to crack Mitchell and put him down and out.

Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull

Yair Rodriguez moneyline (-198)

Were this fight happening a few years ago, I would like Pitbull’s chances more. Pitbull is now 37 years old and with 43 fights worth of mileage on his body. We’ve seen that wear and tear show when Pitbull lost to Sergio Pettis and Chihiro Suzuki in 2023. He has since picked up a win over Jeremy Kennedy and now makes his UFC debut against Rodriguez. The Mexican is on a two-fight losing skid but those losses came against top-tier fighters Alexander Volkanovski and Brian Ortega. Rodriguez also poses a few additional challenges for Pitbull, including being five inches shorter and having about six fewer inches of reach. This feels like a fight that will be a rude welcome to the Octagon for Pitbull.

Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett

Paddy Pimblett moneyline (-155)

Chandler has made quite a career out of being an exciting fighter. However, he is also 2-4 in the UFC, and one of those wins was over Tony Ferguson in the middle of Ferguson’s eight-fight losing streak. Unlike Chandler, Pimblett is on the way up and abrasive as many may find his personality, he has proven plenty talented. Pimblett also has more ways to win, with the chance to win by knockout, submission or decision all very much in play. Chandler lacks the submission chops to be as much of a threat on the ground and doesn’t look to employ his wrestling often, instead choosing to brawl, no matter how much risk that approach presents. Chandler is a live dog because of his power and pace but Pimblett is going to bring the more technical and tactical approach to the Octagon. There is risk in taking Pimblett, however, as he does tend to fail in maintaining defensive responsibility.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

Over 3.5 rounds (-145)

This is a very tricky fight to pick. Volkanovski was pound-for-pound elite for years but he has been badly knocked out twice in a row. Lopes has looked very solid over his five most recent fights since dropping his UFC debut. Lopes has been an explosive first-round finisher at times but has gone to decision in three of his six UFC bouts. Volkanovski is not known as a particularly fast finisher. Adding the level of competition and the tendencies of both fighters, it makes sense to take the -145 line on the fight going over 3.5 rounds. Of course, it’s possible those back-to-back brutal knockout losses for Volkanovski show that his chin has diminished and Lopes finds a way to get the stoppage, but this feels like a fight that Volkanovski navigates without getting finished in the opening few rounds.