UFC 314 odds, preview, predictions: Volkanovski vs. Lopes nearly a pick’em

Sports

add

We are in store for an incredible night of action with UFC 314 on the horizon, featuring Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes for the featherweight championship and Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett in an epic co-main event.

The card is fully loaded from top to bottom, so if you want to chat about any fights besides the few that I will break down, please let me know in the comment section below!

Let’s dive in!

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

The longtime featherweight champion and future Hall of Famer Alexander Volkanovski is ready to reclaim his title after the former champion Ilia Topuria vacated the belt to move up a division. He’ll have a stiff test in front of him with top contender Diego Lopes, who will want nothing more than to see Volkanovski lying stiff on the canvas, as he has done in his previous two bouts.

The question we need to answer to determine the winner of this matchup is: Can Volkanovski take any power shots from Lopes, or will he crumble at the first sign of adversity?

I’d be lying if I said I was confident. In his two most recent fights, Volkanovski has taken some brutal shots from both Islam Makhachev and Topuria that left him unconscious. If there’s any time for Lopes to claim the belt, it’s now. He’s a real power threat early in fights and will swing for the fences; the aggression alone may be all he needs to connect once or twice and put Volkanovski unconscious for a third time. Lopes is also an elite submission grappler who will twist Volkanovski into a pretzel if he has the opportunity.

From a process standpoint, Lopes still isn’t particularly strong, and he doesn’t exactly compare to Volkanovski statistically. Over 25 minutes, I expect Volkanovski to land more consistently. Although he doesn’t carry the same power threat as Lopes, he maintains his energy better and is more defensively sound, landing 6.16 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.44 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. Lopes lands 4.20 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.11 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate.

Volkanovski has fought an elite level of competition, including many competitive contests that have gone a full five rounds. Lopes is more dependent on energy bursts, and as the fight progresses, it’s quite likely those bursts won’t be as impactful. I do think Lopes can win rounds with damage and volume, but I would mostly expect them to come early. If he’s damaging Volkanovski, he most likely just secures the knockout. 

Lopes’ side is a really strong submission grappler, but he can’t wrestle. If you’re an elite, dedicated submission expert, you’d ideally want to be able to get the fight on the mat, right? Lopes only lands 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, so it’s hard to project him for more than a single takedown over 25 minutes, which just isn’t enough.

On the flip side, Volkanovski is a strong wrestler and lands 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, topping out at seven takedowns in a recent win over Yair Rodríguez. He may not want to wrestle with Lopes due to the submission threat, but Lopes has given up many takedowns in recent years and has largely failed to submit most opponents from his back, though he will try.

Movsar Evloev took Lopes down several times and had to escape some dangerous submission attempts, but ultimately, they were failed attempts on Lopes’ part. Even Joanderson Brito outwrestled Lopes in the Contender Series, a loss that aged poorly in hindsight.

Lopes only defends takedowns at 52 percent, and he’s just too comfortable losing minutes from his back. In his matchup with Dan Ige, who took the fight on just a few hours’ notice, Ige got Lopes down in the third round and beat him up to win that round.

Lopes can certainly submit Volkanovski, but it won’t come easily, and if Volkanovski chooses to wrestle down the stretch, it could provide him with several free minutes of control to help him seal rounds.

Ultimately, this fight is very difficult to project due to Lopes’ high-variance power and Volkanovski’s shaky durability. Both men can win, though I generally expect Lopes to win by early KO or not at all.

On BetMGM, this fight is a near pick’em with Volkanovski as a slight -125 favorite, which is only a 55.56 percent win rate. I would line Volkanovski as a heavier favorite, so I can see the merit of betting him at this number.

At the same time, it’s just hard to cap, and I believe Lopes can also win the fight. I wouldn’t play his +105 moneyline personally, but Lopes to win inside the distance (ITD) at +145 or to win by KO/TKO at +300 feel like more viable options.

Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett

From a technical perspective, I’m not the biggest fan of Chandler or Pimblett, but both fighters love to bring the action, and I think this matchup will be quite fun for as long as it lasts.

Chandler has been a bit of a disappointment since he moved over from Bellator in 2021. He has only won two of his six scheduled bouts, though both wins came by early knockout.

He’s another extreme power threat who likely will need early success to win because he’s lacking in other areas, including defense and cardio. On one hand, Chandler is a lifelong wrestler and a D1 All-American. But he typically doesn’t wrestle because he doesn’t have the gas tank for it. Instead, he swings for the fences until he’s gassed out, which usually only takes a few minutes.

Chandler impressively lasted five rounds against Charles Oliveira last time out, nearly knocking Oliveira out in the fifth round. But Chandler spent most of those first four rounds under Oliveira.

Paddy Pimblett is hated by many because he talks the talk but hasn’t proven he can walk the walk. He’s a decent fighter, though, and he has more process to his game than Chandler.

The issue for Pimblett is that he lacks defense. He’s hittable and only defends strikes at a 40 percent rate. He was nearly knocked out in his UFC debut, and he’s been hurt since then as well. Chandler may very well bomb on him early.

However, Pimblett is tough as nails and has already come from behind to win on more than one occasion. But he’s getting hurt and taken down because he’s not polished enough defensively, which should limit his upside at the top levels of the division.

When I looked into this fight, I came away higher on Pimblett’s striking than I expected. He’s decent at range, counters well, throws with power and is an annoying kicker. His kicks should give Chandler trouble over an extended period.

Chandler should be wrestling. Pimblett only defends takedowns at 52 percent, and even weak wrestlers like Jordan Leavitt have been able to take him down. But Chandler has only taken down three of six opponents, and he’s only landed more than one takedown in one fight — against Dustin Poirier. Chandler gassed out and was submitted in the third round.

Pimblett can survive on the bottom as the superior submission grappler, which could lead to similar fatigue for Chandler. Ultimately, it’s another high-variance fight with many different possible outcomes. It may come down to who is tougher and in better shape.

On BetMGM, Pimblett is the favorite at -160 with an implied win rate of 61.54 percent. This is the highest I see him lined across the entire market. I favor Pimblett outright but would choose to play him at -145 instead of -160. 

Chandler is the dog at +130, but I think most of his win equity is tied to a knockout, a prop you can find at +250 or better across the market. 

I’ll likely stay out of this one from a betting standpoint, but I lean toward Pimblett getting his hand raised and likely inside the distance as well.

Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba

We have a classic striker vs. grappler matchup as former strawweight title challenger Yan Xiaonan takes on submission specialist Virna Jandiroba.

This fight, in many ways, is easy to break down because there are two primary outcomes — either Jandiroba can get Xiaonan to the ground, or she cannot. If she can, Jandiroba should have a considerable advantage. If she cannot, Xiaonan should have just as large an advantage.

Xiaonan impressed in her title bout against Zhang Weili in 2024. She hurt Weili badly on multiple occasions, and on a good night, she could have become the champion.

However, Weili survived and ended up grounding Xiaonan — who had struggled grappling in multiple fights prior — essentially choking her unconscious at the end of Round 1. The fight was somehow allowed to continue, and Weili landed an additional five takedowns while accruing a total of 12:44 of control time.

Xiaonan has leveled up since her 2021 battering at the hands of Carla Esparza, but I still don’t think she’s a tremendous defensive grappler. Most recently, she defended two out of three takedowns from Tabatha Ricci, a solid grappler herself, and won the decision cleanly.

I wouldn’t be totally shocked if we see a similar outcome against Jandiroba, who offers nothing at distance. Jandiroba only lands 2.12 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.73 per minute. She won’t keep up with Xiaonan, who lands 4.99 sig. strikes per minute. At the same time, Jandiroba is a better grappler than Ricci and a more technical submission grappler than Weili. She’s a competent wrestler for someone with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, and she lands 2.29 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Jandiroba’s losses have all come against other strong grapplers, and each matchup was highly competitive. In 2019, she lost a decision to Esparza despite taking her down a few times. She also lost competitive decisions to Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas.

When she’s faced strikers or less skilled grapplers, Jandiroba finds a way on top and tends to control the fight. Even when she cannot dive in deep on double legs, Jandiroba can revert to single legs and semi-guard pulls where she can reverse position. She is very crafty, and her BJJ on top is very clean.

I respect Xiaonan, but she hasn’t proven to me that she can defend takedowns consistently from a high-level grappler, and I am very worried about her defensive BJJ once she is grounded.

I’m going to pick Jandiroba to win.

On BetMGM, Jandiroba is -150 to win, which is an implied rate of 60 percent. You can find better odds on her elsewhere at -145 to win, which I prefer. I also don’t hate taking a shot on her submission prop at +240, though I won’t be going heavy here.

Xiaonan is lined at +125 to win, but I think the obvious choice is her decision prop at +190. While she does have power, she’ll need to chase Jandiroba to the ground even if she hurts her standing, and I think it will be difficult for her to find a finish there.

(Photo of Alexander Volkanovski: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

Share on

email

Previous

trending_flat

Fantasy Football: RB Dylan Sampson’s 2025 NFL Draft player profile

College & Draft

Next

trending_flat

Alisson and Conor Bradley set for Liverpool returns against West Ham

Sports