Yankees vs. Giants odds, prediction, props: Free 2025 MLB picks, April 12 best bets by proven model

The San Francisco Giants will take on the New York Yankees in a key early-season interleague matchup on Saturday afternoon. San Francisco won 9-1 in a rain-shortened series opener on Friday night. The Giants (10-3), who have won eight of 10, are 6-1 on the road this season. The Yankees (7-6), who have lost four of five, are 4-3 on their home field. New York is expected to send right-hander Will Warren (0-0, 6.00 ERA) to the mound, while San Francisco counters with right-hander Jordan Hicks (1-0, 2.38 ERA).

First pitch from Yankee Stadium in New York is set for 3:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees have won 10 of the past 12 meetings with the Giants. New York is a -141 favorite on the money line (risk $141 to win $100) in the latest Giants vs. Yankees odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 8. Before making any Giants vs. Yankees picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 3 of the 2025 MLB season on a 34-19 roll on top-rated run-line betting picks (+629) that dates back to 2023. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, here are the model’s three best bets for Giants vs. Yankees on Saturday:

Yankees to win (-134)

New York enters play on Saturday on a roll at Yankee Stadium this season. In seven home games, New York has outscored its opponents 53-32. The Yankees are third in MLB, hitting .265 as a team with 26 homers, second behind the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Center fielder Jung Hoo Lee has been red hot to start the season. In Friday’s win over the Yankees, he was 1-for-2 with a homer and three RBI. He had three hits in Wednesday’s 8-6 win over the Cincinnati Reds, including a double and a triple. FanDuel Sportsbook has the best price on the Yankees winning at -134. 

Over 8 total runs (-110)

The teams have combined to score eight or more runs in eight of their previous 10 meetings. The model gives five San Francisco batters at least a 47% chance for an RBI, including Willy Adames, Mike Yastrzemski, Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos and Lee. Five New York players were given at least a 43% chance of knocking in a run – Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm, Cody Bellinger, Jasson Dominguez and Paul Goldschmidt. The model is projecting 9.6 combined runs, as the over hits in nearly 60% of simulations.

Jazz Chisholm to record 1+ hit (-135)

Chisholm has been held hitless in his last five games, but the model sees this as a bounce-back spot for him since he had a hit in four of his prior five games before the current slump. When at home and favored, Chisholm has gone Over his total bases market in eight of his last 12 games, maintaining an average of 1.5 total bases per game. The model is projecting him to hit that 1.5 number again in the simulations, making this a 5-star pick, according to the model. DraftKings Sportsbook has this prop at -135. 

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Top MLB expert Matt Severance is heating up. Get his best bets for Saturday here, all from the expert who is 44-20 on his last 64 MLB picks (+1264).