No race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby has produced more winners in the first leg of the Triple Crown than the Florida Derby. In 2023, Mage became the 25th horse to run in the Florida Derby and win the Kentucky Derby later that year, but Mage finished second at Gulfstream Park. Tappan Street won the 2025 Florida Derby, while Sovereignty, who finished second, also has enough points to qualify for the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3. Will either Tappan Street or Sovereignty continue the rich history of Florida Derby starters winning the Kentucky Derby 2025?
Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. However, Sovereignty (8-1) and Tappan Street (10-1) are within the five 2025 Kentucky Derby horses with the shortest odds to win the Run for the Roses, so should you include either of them in 2025 Kentucky Derby bets? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby futures already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez, even though he’s one of the favorites. In fact, Demling says Rodriguez doesn’t even hit the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez was sired by a Kentucky Derby winner, but Authentic’s win at Churchill Downs came during an unusual season in horse racing and for the world at large. The Derby wasn’t run until September in 2020 because of the global pandemic, and Authentic had already run in four graded-stakes races and skipped the Belmont Stakes before winning the Run for the Roses without a crowd.
Rodriguez won’t have the luxury of running without the distraction of 150,000 fans and doesn’t have the same level of experience as he heads to Churchill Downs. His win at the Wood Memorial might have come against a field that won’t include another Kentucky Derby horse and his only other win came in a maiden race at Santa Anita in January. Baffert has pointed out that Rodriguez is similar to Authentic in his early immaturity, but Authentic had an additional four months to work through that issue. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025. The colt is 2-for-2 with victories in Japan over his career, most recently winning the 2025 Fukuryu Stakes on March 29. Although Luxor Cafe hasn’t competed against the top American horses, he has the pedigree of American greatness. Luxor Cafe is the son of American Pharoah, who won the 2015 Triple Crown and is in the conversation for the greatest horse of all time.
Luxor Cafe will draw betting interest from that fact alone, but his victories prove he’s capable of making a name for himself. The Fukuryu Stakes runs at the same 1 1/8-mile distance of races like the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby, so distance shouldn’t be an issue for Luxor Cafe. Forever Young finished third at last year’s Kentucky Derby, becoming the first Japanese horse to place in the top three at Churchill Downs, as international horses continue to prove they can compete with the top American 3-year-olds. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a double-digit longshot who “has a legit shot.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
This news was originally published on this post .
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