Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Buy Jonathan Aranda’s hot start despite his limited ceiling, and more

“Francisco Lindor is a bust!”

I haven’t seen that comment yet, but I know it’s coming. He’s hitting just .220/.279/.339 through his first 15 games with just one homer and two steals, terrible production from any starter, let alone your likely second-round pick. You’re frustrated. I know it.

But you know what Lindor’s line looked like exactly one year ago? .129/.236/.194. He was even worse than he’s been so far, and it just didn’t matter – he hit .290/.357/.534 the rest of the way, playing his way into being your likely second-round pick.

I hope you have a long enough memory to know not to be worried about Lindor, but this isn’t really even about Lindor. He’s a useful one to make the point about because of his early struggles in each of the past two years – and, if memory serves, several of the prior seasons, too – but the point applies to just about anyone who you liked enough to spend real capital on in your drafts three weeks ago: Don’t overreact!

I know it’s hard when you’re stuck at the bottom of the standings, watching your rivals get superstar performances from their superstars. It feels bad to watch your early-round picks let you down. I know.

But these players’ careers didn’t start three weeks ago. And three weeks just isn’t a very long time in baseball – it can feel like it in the moment, but three weeks basically tells us nothing about how a player is going to perform moving forward. Lindor’s case tells us that, but you can do this with literally any player – Aaron Judge had a season for the ages in 2024, but he also had multiple 15-game stretches with an OPS below .650, including one stretch last September with a .611 OPS and a 30% strikeout rate. You just didn’t notice it because he had a whole season’s worth of insulation from it.

So, this is just a reminder to be patient. That doesn’t mean sit on your hands – I just traded Trea Turner for Chris Sale and Nico Hoerner in a league where I needed more pitching upside, for example. But it does mean you need to make sure your opinion on your core players hasn’t changed much since the start of the season. The worst thing you could do is overreact to a slow start by making a foolish trade, locking in the poor performance you’ve gotten so far without the upside that is sure to come from those superstars.

And with that reminder out of the way, let’s get into what you need to know from Monday’s action around MLB: 

Tuesday’s top waiver-wire targets

Jonathan Aranda, 2B, Rays (46%) – If it was any other team, I’d be inclined to say that Aranda is hitting so well that the Rays have to give him a more frequent look against lefties. With a 2 for 5 showing Monday against the Red Sox that included three batted balls hit over 100 mph, Aranda is now hitting .395/.460/.698 for the season with a very manageable 20% strikeout rate. Of course, his rate stats are surely inflated by how rarely he faces lefties, and unfortunately, the Rays are the one team I don’t really think is going to let him be an everyday player, which limits the ceiling. But Aranda is crushing the ball, sporting 96.8 mph average exit velocity for the season. At least when the Rays have a bunch of right-handed pitchers on the schedule, Aranda should be very useful. 

Grant Holmes, RP, Braves (76%) – If you’re looking for someone to make the case that Holmes is a burgeoning ace, look to either of my FBT colleagues, both of whom like him quite a bit more than I do. Still, I can see the case for Holmes, who showcased a deeper arsenal in this one and could have had an even better line if not for two inherited runners scoring. Nine whiffs on 94 pitches is pretty underwhelming, and Holmes’ secondaries haven’t played quite as well as they did when he pitched primarily out of relief last season, but I think his 3.78 ERA is a reasonable projection moving forward, which should make Holmes useful in most formats. 

Sean Murphy, C, Braves (60%) – Maybe it’s the glasses? Murphy sure seems to be seeing the ball well right now, and he’s been making up for lost time since coming off the IL, homering for the fourth time in six games Monday – only Cal Raleigh and Logan O’Hoppe have homered more often among catchers so far this season. It’s been a while since Murphy was truly an impact bat even for a catcher, but he’s healthy right now and might be tapping back into the upside that once made him a true must-start option at the position. 

Landen Roupp, SP, Giants (41%) – Roupp didn’t have a great start Monday, giving up four earned runs over five innings of work, though most of the damage was done in the first inning before he settled in. But man, he continues to show some really interesting skills, most notably with his curveball, which generated 15 swinging strikes on this one – out of 20 total. The repertoire outside of the curveball isn’t fully refined yet, but when you have one pitch that can do that (and has a 54% whiff rate overall), that might be enough to matter for Fantasy. 

Alex Verdugo, OF, Braves (3%) – The Braves’ decision to sign Verdugo just before the season didn’t seem like it would matter at the time, but then you look at the lineup they trotted out there Monday, with Stuart Fairchild and Eli White starting in the corners and you realize, yeah, they’re gonna need the help. Even when Ronald Acuna is healthy enough to play. It’s been a while since Verdugo was much more than a Fantasy also-ran, but he still makes a ton of contact and could be a cheap source of batting average for your roto lineups whenever he gets the call, which should be some time this week.