Free MLB home run picks for April 15: Trevor Story, Adolis Garcia among best bets for Tuesday HR player props

We’re almost three weeks into the 2025 MLB season, and there have already been 23 players that have slugged at least five home runs. The group includes stars like Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Kyle Schwarber and Fernando Tatis Jr. and unexpected names like Tommy Edman and Wilmer Flores. Jazz Chisholm topped out at 19 home runs over the first five years of his MLB career, but the left-handed hitting Yankees third baseman has been taking advantage of the short porch in right field at his home stadium with 17 home runs in 239 at-bats since arriving in New York last summer. He’s +400 at BetMGM Sportsbook to go yard on Tuesday and might be an option to consider for your MLB HR picks.

All 30 teams are in action during the Tuesday MLB schedule, so there are a litany of options for your MLB home run bets. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks. 

The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. It went 2-for-3 in HR bets yesterday, hitting on Shohei Ohtani at +290 and Bobby Witt at +340. The SportsLine Projection Model has nailed a HR prop in five out of the last seven days and is up 12.8 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Tuesday. These three picks can be parlayed for +20305 odds and would pay out $1,020.50 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tyler Soderstrom (+440)

Soderstrom is part of that eight-way tie for the MLB home run lead with six home runs so far this season. This is his first full season in the majors after hitting 12 home runs in 314 at-bats over two stints in the big leagues the last two years. All the ancillary metrics seem to indicate this is Soderstrom’s new normal, as he’s 86th percentile or better among MLB hitters in average exit velocity, barrel rate and expected slugging.

You can also visit SportsLine now to see the model’s MLB score projections and props for every game on Tuesday, all from the simulation on a 34-19 roll.

“Soderstrom hasn’t hit a HR in his last 5 games after hitting 6 in his first 10 games, but he still has a 1.119 OPS vs. RHPs and has a favorable matchup tonight,” SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner said. “We set Soderstrom’s line at +314 to hit a HR today.” FanDuel Sportsbook is offering the best odds on a Soderstrom home run today.

Adolis Garcia (+460)

Garcia has blasted 122 home runs over the last four seasons and he came out of the gates hot again in 2025, clubbing a couple of homers in his first four games. However, he’s 0-fer in the month of April and long overdue for a power surge. Over a small sample size in 2025, his average exit velocity (94.3 mph), hard-hit contact rate (53.5%) and flyball rate (58.0%) would all be career-highs so it feels like a matter of time before the ball starts leaving the yard.

“Garcia is 3-for-9 in his career off of Yusei Kikuchi and two of those three hits are HRs,” Fetner said. “His line is in the +350 range in most books, but you can get +460 on FanDuel. We set his line at +348 to hit a HR.”

You’ve seen the best MLB home run picks from the model. Now, see today’s best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who’s on a commanding 47-25 roll on baseball picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert on a 47-25 roll.

Trevor Story HR (+600)

Caesars has this line all the way down at +400, but today’s MLB home run parlay is being played at FanDuel (where you can use a 50% profit boost for Dinger Tuesday) and this is by far the most lucrative price. Story is finally having a decent start after having the first three years of his stint in Boston marred by underwhelming performances and injuries after signing a six-year, $140 million contract in 2022. He’s hit three home runs already and is hitting .304. Now he draws a great matchup in a hitter-friendly stadium.

“The Rays‘ temporary ballpark is extremely HR friendly and the HRI (home run index) has tonight’s game at an 8 out of 10,” Fetner said of George M. Steinbrenner Field. “Ryan Pepiot has allowed 5 ER in his last two starts but has given up 4 HRs in those two games. Pepiot gave up 3 HRs in his last start which was also at home.”