Always tough being on an under and watching half the scoring output come from unearned runs caused by shoddy defense—including a blown routine double-play ball. But hey, the week’s only just begun.
Tuesday brings a full 15-game slate—just like it typically does each week after the usual lighter Monday schedule—and there was one game on here with an over/under that really made me mutter to myself, “What on earth?”
That would be tonight’s series opener between the Seattle Mariners and Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park, where Luis Castillo (the usual one) and Nick Lodolo face off with a total of 8.5 across the board. Yes, the same total as our under from Cincy on Saturday evening that featured Andrew Heaney versus Andrew Abbott.
No disrespect to those latter two hurlers—especially Heandog—but that particular matchup should definitely not carry the same total as the one kicking off this Mariners-Reds series.
Do the oddsmakers think this is the other Luis Castillo who just made his Seattle debut a couple of weeks ago? I swear I double-checked because that’s how off I think the books are on this over/under. It shouldn’t be higher than 8 based on the early-season performance of both starters—not to mention their obvious talents shown often in previous years.
First of all, Castillo has been one of the better starting pitchers in the game since debuting in 2017. Oh yeah, and that debut came with the Cincinnati Reds, with whom he spent his first five and a half seasons.
Notably, this is actually Castillo’s first game back at Great American Ball Park. He was dealt three years ago at the trade deadline by the only team he had known, so this is a pretty significant moment for the 32-year-old.
Given his strong start to the campaign, I think it’s academic that Castillo keeps it going in what should be an emotionally charged assignment. Not only will he view this start as one of the most important of his career, but it’s also a favorable matchup against an offense that hasn’t gotten going yet.
The Reds rank 29th in team batting average (.200), tied for 28th in on-base percentage (.272), and 27th in slugging percentage (.320). Uh, those are some clear signs of a struggling batting order.
Evaluating Cincinnati’s lineup on paper, should we be surprised? Also keep in mind they’re currently missing two key bats in Matt McLain and Tyler Stephenson.
So, we’re getting a potential All-Star in Luis Castillo facing a team with very limited punch, and we’re getting another potential name for the Midsummer Classic in left-hander Nick Lodolo, who is off to a fantastic start. Not only that, but he’s also about to tangle with unquestionably one of the worst lineups in baseball opposite left-handed pitching.
As detailed in this column previously, the Seattle Mariners registered the worst team average a year ago against southpaws. They hit a pathetic .213 and, to add insult to injury, struck out once every 3.5 at-bats.
Apparently, not much has changed. In 165 at-bats versus lefties, the Mariners have mustered a lackluster .188/.268/.208 slash line while going down via the K once every three ABs. In other words, they’ve actually been worse than last season.
And now they’re about to step into the box against one of the best left-handed starters in the early going. Given that I tabbed Lodolo as one of my top three sleepers entering the year, this early success for the former No. 7 overall draft pick is no surprise.
Lodolo has made three starts so far and allowed no earned runs in two of them. In fact, an earned run hasn’t been scored off the fourth-year big leaguer in his last 16 1/3 innings.
While the number of strikeouts Lodolo’s strung together has been uncharacteristically low, tonight’s matchup provides an opportunity to change that. And very likely, the Ks will come sooner rather than later, given that he’s comfortably averaged more than a strikeout per inning in his career.
This is a perfect example of a matchup that, if it occurred later in the year, would undoubtedly come with a lower total attached. The juice also being aligned the way it is allows us to even grab it at 9 at a perfectly acceptable price.
Pick: UNDER 9 (-125, Bet365)
2025 MLB Betting Record: 10-8-1, +0.87 unit
Over/Unders: 9-6-1
Props: 1-1
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Brewers Under 7.5 (loss)
Each bet graded as if to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.
Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.
This news was originally published on this post .
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