The San Diego Padres look to remain perfect at home this season and aim for their sixth consecutive win overall when they host the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday for the middle contest of their three-game series. San Diego improved to 11-0 at Petco Park and a major league-best 14-3 overall with a 10-4 victory in the opener of the set on Monday. Right-hander Randy Vasquez (1-1, 1.72 ERA) is just 1-3 in nine career starts at Petco but worked six scoreless innings in a no-decision against Atlanta in his first home start of 2025. The Cubs will counter with Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga (2-1, 2.70), who is coming off his first loss of the year as he yielded five runs in five frames against Texas last Wednesday.
The Padres-Cubs game is one of 15 on Tuesday’s MLB slate. Elsewhere, the Seattle Mariners seek their fifth straight win when they send Luis Castillo (1-1, 2.12) to the mound against the host Cincinnati Reds and Nick Lodolo (2-1, 0.96); Spencer Schwellenbach (1-0, 0.45) and the visiting Atlanta Braves face Kevin Gausman (1-1, 2.33) and the Toronto Blue Jays; and Quinn Priester (0-0, 1.80) and the Milwaukee Brewers host Jack Flaherty (1-0, 1.62) and the Detroit Tigers.
For the Padres-Cubs matchup, sportsbooks have set Vasquez’s total strikeout player prop at 3.5, while Imanaga’s is 4.5. Imanaga’s prop is the only one that rates highly on the SportsLine Projection Model’s five-star scale. According to the model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, Imanaga Over 4.5 strikeouts rates as a 4.5, while Vasquez Under 3.5 rates as a 3.
There is one pitcher strikeout prop for Tuesday that the model has rated at 5 stars and three rated at 4.5 stars, including one that returns plus money. Here they are:
Connor Gillispie Over 3.5 strikeouts (-110) vs. Diamondbacks (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts
After making three relief appearances for the Cleveland Guardians last year, his first season in the major leagues, Gillispie will be making his fourth start of 2025 for the Miami Marlins. The 27-year-old righty fanned only two batters over four innings against the New York Mets in his last outing but recorded six strikeouts across five frames versus the Mets in his previous start and notched four over five innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates in his season debut.
Spencer Schwellenbach Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts
After recording four strikeouts over six innings against the Padres in his season debut, Schwellenbach surpassed this number in each of his next two starts. The 24-year-old righty fanned 10 batters across eight frames in a win over the Miami Marlins and registered five strikeouts in six innings versus the Philadelphia Phillies last time out, punching out slugger Nick Castellanos three times.
Yusei Kikuchi Over 5.5 strikeouts (-104) vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.2 strikeouts
Texas struck out 11 times in its loss to the Seattle Mariners on Sunday, and Kikuchi is hoping to keep the strikeouts coming. The 33-year-old Japanese southpaw has recorded more than five strikeouts just once in three starts this year, registering six over six innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. But he fanned eight batters across 5 and 1/3 frames in his last outing versus the Rangers last August and has notched 34 strikeouts over 35 2/3 innings in eight career games against Texas.
Shota Imanaga Over 4.5 strikeouts (+110) vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
Imanaga faced San Diego at Wrigley Field earlier this month and was superb, allowing just one run and four hits in 7 and 1/3 innings. The 34-year-old pitcher recorded only four strikeouts, however, and has yet to surpass that number in four turns this year. But he fanned eight batters in his only meeting with the Padres last season and will need to come up with a similar performance on Tuesday, as San Diego has struck out only 109 times thus far in 2025, the second-fewest amount of times in the majors.
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