With a little over a week remaining before they’ll be on the clock in the NFL Draft, the New England Patriots don’t yet know who they’ll take with the fourth pick.
They’re spending this week running through scenarios, coach Mike Vrabel said in a news conference Tuesday. Even if many assume that the first three picks will be some variation of Cam Ward, Travis Hunter, and Abdul Carter, part of the Pats’ decision at No. 4 revolves around what they could then do in the subsequent rounds. Essentially, they’re running mock draft simulations over and over, gaming out different scenarios. For example, if they draft Will Campbell at No. 4, what can they get in the second round? Or if they go with defensive tackle Mason Graham with the fourth pick, is there still a path to landing a starting left tackle?
Vrabel took questions for 20 minutes at Gillette Stadium on Tuesday as he nears the first draft of this new era. Here’s what we learned.
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The Abdul Carter love is real
This comes as no surprise, but the Patriots really like Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter. And while it’s probably still a long shot that he’ll be available at No. 4, the door for that happening has opened just a little.
The New York Giants, who have the third pick, scheduled a private workout with Shedeur Sanders. That could mean they’re exploring the quarterback options in case they want to trade back into the first round, considering general manager Joe Schoen threw cold water on the idea of drafting a QB at No. 3 a couple of weeks ago. Or — and this would be a delight to the Patriots — there has been a change of heart, and they really are now considering picking Sanders at No. 3.
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If that happens, that would all but ensure Hunter or Carter falls to the Patriots. And with the Cleveland Browns seemingly eyeing Hunter at No. 2, there’s a chance that Carter could come to New England, which would be a massive coup to land arguably the best player in the entire draft class at a premium position where they badly need help. It’d be a true best-case scenario for them.
There’s at least enough of a chance of that happening that Carter visited the Patriots (who get to bring 30 prospects to the facility) earlier this week. That’s noteworthy because Carter had previously only visited teams with a top-three pick, spurning other requests because he was so sure of his draft standing.
And Vrabel’s comments certainly backed up the idea that they were impressed by Carter.
“I don’t think he took too many (visits),” Vrabel said, “but I would say that the tape is dynamic. There’s a lot of great qualities of a disruptive pass rusher. (He’s a) very slippery, loose, sudden player, and it was a fun tape to watch.”
The decision at No. 4
Still, the most likely outcome in Round 1 is that Hunter and Carter aren’t available for the Patriots to pick. In that event, the Pats would likely be intrigued by the idea of trading back. But so far, trade talks have been few and far between. There don’t figure to be many teams interested in trading up to No. 4 in a draft class where there’s a falloff after the first three players and the second tier has a dozen or so players in it.
“In my experience, it’s probably a little early for those conversations,” Vrabel said of trade talks. “A lot of those happen next week as we get a little closer to the draft. I think there’s still some preparation and some managing that goes on — and the coaches’ reports. It’s probably a little early for some of those conversations to happen.”
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Regardless, there’s a good chance the Patriots will have to stick and pick at No. 4 without Hunter or Carter available. So what would the Pats do then?
“To say that we have a definitive answer on those scenarios, no, but those are processes that are ongoing, and we’ll be done here shortly,” Vrabel said.
A starting left tackle
The Patriots’ moves in free agency (or in this case, lack of moves) made clear that they’re hoping to find their 2025 starting left tackle in the draft. Hence the urgency with the No. 4 pick. Vederian Lowe is their best option at the position currently under contract.
So some of the scenarios they’re running look at how they could land a starting left tackle if they don’t go after that position at No. 4.
Even though draft experts have indicated that the position lacks the high-end prospects of years past and that the overall depth isn’t what it has been, Vrabel seems confident the Pats can get a left tackle in the draft.
“I think there are some starting tackles that certainly will come in and start in the NFL,” Vrabel said. “I think that that’s really what you start to look for — impact players. When you start picking that high, what they’re going to do for you, what’s the impact, what’s the position, (and) you talk about premium positions. That’s where you weigh all the circumstances and end up making that pick. Do I think that there are starters in this draft (at) left tackle? Yes, I do.”
(Photo: Eric Canha / Imagn Images)
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