Bengals NFL Draft dives, Part 3: Understanding timing at edge rusher and the Hendrickson variable

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This is the third of a five-part series laying out the Bengals’ draft outlook at the primary positions of need in the 2025 NFL Draft. 

• Monday: Safety/linebacker
• Tuesday: Offensive line
• Wednesday: Edge rusher
• Thursday: Defensive tackle
• Friday: Skill positions

Every year in the NFL draft, there’s at least one position where a team’s weakness meets the exciting arrival of a loaded draft class. 

Welcome to the 2025 Cincinnati Bengals defensive line draft. 

The Bengals need help. They need pass rushers. They need them in any shape, size and position. 

The 2025 NFL Draft provides pass rushing defensive linemen by the dozens. If a GM can’t find a match in this draft, they never will. 

Two significant variables live at the forefront of this conversation for the Bengals. One, what is the future of Trey Hendrickson? Two, will Myles Murphy live up to his first-round potential? 

There’s a hope internally both will play — and play well — for the Bengals in 2025. If they do, the situation at edge doesn’t feel as dire as it looked last year. If they don’t, well, the entire 2025 season might be shot barring an immediate impact rookie. 

Both of those questions impact one of the most important storylines of the draft for the Bengals: When is the best time to take a shot at edge?

The list below includes the year a player is signed through and his age in parentheses.

2025

Trey Hendrickson (30): Anybody talking about his contract situation?

Joseph Ossai (25): Late surge in 2024 earned a one-year, $7M deal in free agency. Can he outplay Murphy to earn the starting role? 

Cam Sample (25): Valued utility on the defensive line that missed 2024 with a preseason Achilles injury. 

Raymond Johnson III (26), Isaiah Thomas (26): Both hunting practice squad spots. 

2026

Myles Murphy (23): Two years with limited snaps and minimal production created a divide between former DC Lou Anarumo and the personnel staff. Was Murphy not good enough or not playing enough? He’ll play plenty this year. 

2027

Cedric Johnson (22): Sixth-round pick enjoyed a few intriguing flashes screaming off the edge late last year. 

Profile they seek 

This used to be easy. Every edge Anarumo ever invested in, whether free agency or draft, stood between 6-3 and 6-5 and 260 and 275 pounds. That would account for just six of Dane Brugler’s current top 20 edge rushers in this draft. Does Al Golden believe in adding a different body type to the mix? That question will follow the list of candidates for Cincinnati. Opening up the option of an edge weighing in the 250-pound range casts a much wider net of candidates. Golden plans on sticking with a four-down linemen defense, so there isn’t a need for a lighter, OLB type, but how strict will the size profile be this time around? 

They said it

Defensive coordinator Al Golden on if a 245-pound edge is too small for the AFC North: 

“Oh, I don’t know. It depends on how we utilize that weight and certainly how dynamic the player is. Some players are better on the move and if we evaluate someone who can impact the game at that weight then there’s different ways to manipulate that and accentuate what they do best.”

History 

Dating back to the 2019 draft when Zac Taylor arrived and the Bengals’ personnel structure reformatted, the Bengals have selected 12 defensive linemen. None have reached 10 sacks. 

The rest of the league has drafted 57 defensive linemen to total 10 sacks in that span, led by Nick Bosa with 62.5. 

To take this many swings and produce no player with double-digit sacks or more than 25 pressures per year is debilitating. For reference, Hendrickson over his four years in Cincinnati has contributed 57 sacks, 112 QB hits and 323 total pressures. 

The pressure is on to find more pressure. 

Stat dive

When looking for the most correlative metrics from college to the NFL, few offer a higher emphasis on athleticism than edge rusher. Out of 22 edge pro bowlers drafted the last 10 years, only 5 had a Relative Athletic Score below 8.9. Also, nine of 11 with multiple Pro Bowls had a RAS above 8.9 coming out. 

Finding great edge rushers requires freakish athleticism. That doesn’t mean production should be cast aside. Prospects with both production and athleticism go at the top of the drafts, but there can be cases they slip under the radar. Or perhaps more importantly, a prospect discussed among the first-round players are missing a concerning component. 

Gridiron Grading does an excellent job of comparing this year’s prospects against previous through an analytical lens, while also including film study. 

This chart shows the last 10 years of edge rushers on an axis of production and athleticism. You can see the names that make sense in the top right and should hang a red flag on those in the bottom left. 

A final look at career production vs. athleticism for the 2025 EDGE class.

All scores are relative to the 2015-2024 classes.

Targets:
🎯 James Pearce Jr.
🎯 David Walker
🎯 Ashton Gillotte

Sleepers:
💤 Tyler Batty
💤 Elijah Roberts

Lower on:
🚩 Mykel Williams
🚩 Jack Sawyer pic.twitter.com/bXpAVt8sBt

— Gridiron Grading (@GridironGrading) April 14, 2025

James Pearce Jr., of Tennessee, stands out as a notable landmark on the chart, though, off-field concerns provide the red flag on his profile. Meanwhile, popular Day 2 projections Nic Scourton and Bradyn Swinson deserve a more critical eye.

The Pro Football Focus draft guide uses pass rush win rate and true pass set rush grade over a three-year period to find the most stable, predictive metrics for the position. When combining those ranked in the top 10 among edge rushers in either of those metrics and also ranking top 10 in the NFL Network athleticism score, it churned out four players with a top combination in both elements:

Abdul Carter, Penn State

Mike Green, Marshall

Antwuan Powell-Ryland, Virginia Tech

Ashton Gillotte, Louisville

Understanding the class

Brugler has four edge rushes with a true first-round grade, but Carter will be the only sure bet at the top of the round. After that, Jaylon Walker, who could also be use as an off-ball linebacker at 6-3, 243, brings a far different dynamic than Shemar Stewart, the 267-pound owner of a perfect 10.0 RAS score. 

There’s a large grouping of six edge rushers with a second-round grade who offer an intriguing spot to help the pass rush. 

Bengals fits

Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M: Let the traits versus production debate commence. While this pick might create Murphy flashbacks given Stewart’s confounding lack of production despite a 99th percentile athletic skill set, it’s hard not to bet on what skills Stewart could bring to Cincinnati. The list of nine players to test at least 9.99 RAS in the last 25 years includes Myles Garrett, Jevon Kearse, Mario Williams and Travon Walker. There is no ceiling on his potential. Would be a risk, but the Bengals’ lean to traits at the position in recent drafts would suggest a potential match. 

J.T. Tuilomoloau, Ohio State: His ascending profile, five-star status and strong championship, big-game background would be an easy match for the Bengals’ traditional trends. His game hit a new level during the Buckeyes’ run to the championship, which will score big points with the Bengals. He looks like a solid second-round prospect so it would require important draft capital but JTT could be worth it. 

Ashton Gillotte, Louisville: A total of 118 pressures and 15.5 sacks the past two seasons. That will start the conversation. His impressive athletic profile will finish it. His speed and flexibility aren’t all the way there, but he has more than enough to go with a relentless chase mode. For a potential third-round fit, would be an enticing choice. 

Variable, Part 1

James Pearce Jr., Tennessee: The guy can get after the passer. Nobody is doubting the production on the field. He led the SEC with 107 pressures the past two years. Cincinnati had him in for a 30 visit to dig into issues he’s experienced off the field. There’s questions about reliability and how much football matters to him. Coming off the Bengals’ Jermaine Burton experience last year, this could hit a little close to home. This from Brugler in The Beast: “Interview process will be crucial (NFL Scout: “I want to be convinced that he loves this.”) This is a legitimate concern and could drop him down boards quite a bit compared to his production. 

Variable, Part 2

The Hendrickson trade scenario: If the Bengals were to use a first-round pick on an edge rusher, the potential would exist to make the decision to deal Hendrickson. The plan is for Murphy to play a majority of snaps. That’s happening. The same would be true to any first-round pick this year. The Bengals have plenty of starting needs they could fill effectively with a second-round draft choice (OG, S, LB), so adding another selection (or two) would round out this class substantially while going young at edge. It also would clear money for flexibility with future extensions or free-agent additions. Don’t rule anything out at this point, but if the Bengals go edge in the first round, there’s reason for them to further entertain a Hendrickson trade for a Day 2 pick.

Sleeper

Fadil Diggs, Syracuse: Brings the athletic profile to grow into more in the NFL (9.31 RAS) and a background worth believing in as a two-time captain at Texas A&M before blending in seamlessly for a final year at Syracuse. He led the Orange in sacks and TFLs last season. Just needs work technically, but brings versatility to do different things for coordinator Al Golden. 

Prediction

Barryn Sorrell, Texas, Round 4. When looking to take advantage of depth on the defensive line in this draft, Sorrel could be a prime example. He’s a four-down lineman fit with his power and brings a “Freaks list” background as a block of granite. He plays with a high motor and his football character is top tier. If the Bengals opt to fill other needs earlier in the draft, this is the type of player they’d hope to land in the fourth.

(Photo: Brooke Sutton / Getty Images)

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