After offering big-picture tips in each of the past two weeks, it’s finally time to start zeroing in on specific names. With three weeks of regular season action in the books, we have enough of a sample size to identify players who may be inappropriately valued by the market right now.
Here are the top candidates to work into deals.
Buy Low
Salvador Pérez, C, Kansas City Royals
Managers who expected a helpful batting average and strong power numbers from Pérez have thus far received a .206 hitter with two home runs. But an unfortunate .261 BABIP has been the biggest source of his struggles, and he owns a lofty .294 xBA. Additionally, his .544 xSLG and .377 xwOBA are among the best marks of his stellar career. Wise managers will mention in trade talks that the soon-to-be 35-year-old may be hitting a wall, while picking him up at a discount.
Yordan Álvarez, OF, Houston Astros
Álvarez is one of the best hitters in baseball, and anyone who can pick him up at any level of a discount should be excited to make the move. His early season struggles (.224 average, 2 HR, .695 OPS) stem from multiple factors. From a skill perspective, Álvarez is striking out more often than usual (20.8%). And from a luck perspective, his power has been sapped by a 9.5% HR/FB rate. But the 27-year-old continues to log lofty rates of hard contact (94.8 mph average exit velocity) and plenty of fly balls (45.7%). He is drawing walks at a superb 15.3% rate. The power production will surely return in short order.
Brent Rooker, OF, Athletics
Rooker is off to a slow start, but I’m not worried. After back-to-back 30-homer seasons, he continues to hit for power this year (4 HR). And his lowly .205 average has stemmed from a .234 BABIP. In my eyes, the best news surrounding Rooker is that the A’s new home park has been as hitter-friendly as advertised. He will be among the most productive hitters in baseball this year.
Buy High
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
Alonso is one of the best pure power hitters in baseball and was slightly undervalued in draft season after falling short of expectations last season. But he is back in a big way this year, ranking among the league leaders in RBI (20) while also posting a significant homer total (5). The career .251 hitter has logged an unusually high batting average (.356), but before we dismiss the number as a fluke, we need to acknowledge that he is absolutely destroying baseballs (96.4 mph average exit velocity). Managers can’t send a blank check in Alonso trade talks, but he is worth the value of a second-round player.
Sell Low
Spencer Steer, 1B/OF, Cincinnati Reds
It seems that Steer should have opened the season on the IL due to a shoulder injury, as his early season production (.397 OPS) has been among the worst in baseball. The 27-year-old can be marketed in trade talks as someone who is simply off to a slow start after producing 43 homers and 40 steals in the previous two seasons. I would be happy to get anyone for Steer whom I can envision remaining on my roster for more than one month.
Sell High
José Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
Although Altuve has made a Hall of Fame career out of beating his expected stats, the current gap between his expected and actual marks is too great to ignore. The diminutive second baseman is batting a robust .300, but a closer look reveals an 83.3 mph average exit velocity that will be the worst in baseball if it does not improve. His .207 xBA, .312 xSLG and .244 xwOBA are career-worst marks by a notable margin. Altuve will soon turn 35, and although he will likely improve on his early season batted-ball data, the improvement may not be enough for his production to match his name value.
Bryson Stott, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
I would send Stott out in an offer and type this in the comment box: “Stott’s Triple Slash Line is better than that of last season, and after back-to-back 30-steal seasons, he is a safe steals source.”
Now I’ll explain what I really think: the infielder’s average sprint speed dropped by 1 mph last year, putting his steals total in jeopardy. So far this year, Stott’s strikeout rate has ballooned to 22.6% and his average exit velocity has plummeted to 82.2 mph. There is good reason to believe that Stott will be on waivers in most leagues by the middle of May.
This news was originally published on this post .
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