For more stories like this click here to follow The Athletic’s sports betting section and have them added to your feed.
The UEFA Champions League quarter-finals are in the books and we have our four semi-finalists: Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal and Inter. It speaks to the quality of Europe’s top order right now that all four teams can be considered legitimate contenders for the trophy.
Advertisement
Let’s analyse how the bookmakers are sizing up each of their chances, and assess how the odds have moved along the way.
Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain remain joint-favourites at 2/1
Barcelona and PSG were handed quarter-final ties against Borussia Dortmund and Aston Villa, respectively, that they were expected to win. They did so – but not without a few frights along the way.
Both made light work of the first home legs; Barça racked up a commanding 4-0 lead, and Les Parisiens passed their way to a 3-1 win, scoring what felt like the crucial, killer goal in stoppage time.
But in the second legs, both briefly peered into the darkest timeline, as BVB’s Serhou Guirassy scored a hat-trick to pile the pressure on the Catalans, while Villa scored three to put PSG right on the edge. “I don’t think my team has been so dominated by another team in that way,” remarked Luis Enrique after the game, breathing a sigh of relief to be home and dry.
The two were joint-favourites to win the tournament at 10/3 coming into the quarter-finals, ahead of Real Madrid who were priced at 4/1. Now, their odds have shrunk to 2/1, in line with the fact that they’re one step closer and there are only four remaining teams in the competition.
Perhaps if just one of these teams had breezed through their quarter-final matchup, we’d see them listed as the outright favourite now. But given both wobbled pretty violently, the bookmakers have kept them at level pegging.
That feels fair, as most observers would suggest they’re the best two teams left in it and the on-paper favourites to win their respective semi-final ties. Additionally, they couldn’t possibly guess who would emerge as the victor in the final should they meet. They are so similar – their high-possession, high-pressing tactical systems are truly reminiscent of each other – that they’re quite difficult to split.
Arsenal closing in at 11/4
PSG and Barcelona’s joint-favourite price of 2/1 draws the eye, but Arsenal really aren’t far back at 11/4. They’ve come in from a position of 7/1 ahead of the quarter-finals, with the bookmakers offering them a dollop of respect after their 5-1 aggregate demolition of Real Madrid.
While this was hardly a vintage version of Los Blancos – they looked downright dysfunctional, actually – it was still a 180-minute performance that should imbue the Gunners with confidence. After all, if you successfully limit Vinícius Jr. and Kylian Mbappé to practically nothing while shredding Antonio Rüdiger and Aurélien Tchouaméni on the counter-attack, what can’t you do?
Advertisement
Arsenal now face PSG, who they beat 2-0 in October in the league phase – although that was before the French outfit had truly flourished into the season. But Mikel Arteta’s men have also grown into this competition, and will defend deeper than Villa did in Paris, before threatening with just as much attacking gusto at home.
Inter the ‘outsiders’ at 9/2
Inter have been a consistent afterthought for the bookmakers in this competition. They were as long as 14/1 ahead of the Round of 16, shrunk to 10/1 ahead of the quarter-finals, and are now effectively 4.5/1 ahead of the semi-finals.
As José Mourinho – a former treble-winning Inter manager, fittingly – would say: “Respect, respect?”
The Italian giants finished in the top eight in the league phase, conceding just one goal in the process, and proceeded to let in just four more during the knockouts. In Lautaro Martínez, they have a star difference-maker in attack, in Simone Inzaghi one of the most quietly accomplished managers in the world, and in San Siro one of the most raucous stadiums. It’s a potent mix.
The Athletic’s Brett Koremenos explored their viability as a value bet back in early March, and they’ve not put a foot wrong since. It’s crunch time for that theory as Barcelona loom next. But the fact the Nerazzurri boast such experience and defensive solidity, in addition to a huge threat from set pieces, makes them more than a match for La Blaugrana should things fall their way.
More Champions League stories
Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Raphinha: Pedro Salado / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
Did the Knicks deserve to beat the Pistons in Game 4? | First Things First
first things first Video Details Chris Broussard reacts to the controversial no-call on Josh Hart, who hit Tim Hardaway Jr. while attempting to shoot a three as time expired. The New York Knicks ultimately defeated the Detroit Pistons in Game 4. 2 MINS AGO・first things first・3:00
Top 10 NFL Draft hauls: Ranking the teams that reeled in the most talent
Eric Williams NFL Reporter <!--> Whether it was Houston Texans GM Nick Caserio engineering a league-high seven trades or new Jacksonville Jaguars personnel head James Gladstone pulling off the surprise trade of this year’s draft, moving up three spots to take two-way player Travis Hunter at No. 2 overall, NFL teams pulled out all the stops to improve their squads.Now that the draft is over and teams are putting the finishing touches on their rosters heading into offseason work, which teams improved the most for the upcoming season? Let’s take a look at the top 10 draft hauls from the 2025 NFL Draft. ADVERTISEMENT -->Picks: No. 12 overall (1) Tyler Booker (OG) Alabama, 44 (2) Donovan Ezeiruaku (DE) Boston College, 76 (3) Shavon Revel Jr. (CB) East Carolina, 149 (5) Jaydon Blue (RB) Texas, 152 (5) Shemar James (LB) Florida, 204 (6) […]
Manchester City fan groups write open letter to Pep Guardiola over ticket prices
Manchester City supporters’ groups have written to the club’s manager Pep Guardiola over season-ticket availability and matchday ticket pricing.The letter from fan groups 1894, MCFC Food Bank Support, Solid Citizens and Trade Union Blues congratulates Guardiola on guiding the team to the FA Cup final after a 2-0 semi-final win over Nottingham Forest on Sunday and asks him for a “favour”, urging him to speak with the club’s CEO Ferran Soriano.Advertisement“Pep, congratulations on leading us to another Wembley final,” the letter reads. “Before the Forest game you said you understood the fact that fans are facing economic pressures. We are glad you recognise this and you have said that you prefer the fanbase to be alive and not passive.“With this in mind we ask you for one more favour.“Your friends at the club have done many good things. Can you […]
2026 NFL mock draft: Arch Manning among five QBs taken in first round and other way-too-early picks
Getty Images The 2025 NFL Draft is still warm, but it is never too early to familiarize one self with the prospects who could be a part of next year's class. Rather than consider this a concrete projection about where these players will be taken a year from now, fans should look at it as more of a watch list. The prospects below should be stars of college football this fall and have the potential to reach the heights attained by those taken Thursday night. Green Bay set the standard for hosting the NFL Draft experience and now the burden falls on Pittsburgh. Without further ado, let's kick this off!The 2026 NFL Draft order was determined using the reverse Super Bowl odds from FanDuel Sportsbook from before the 2025 NFL Draft kicked off. For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis […]
Muller inclui novo candidato ao rebaixamento no Brasileirão: “Sabe como é”
Muller é comentarista esportivo - Divulgação Muller ligou o sinal de alerta para o Santos neste início de Brasileirão. Com seis rodadas completadas até aqui, o Peixe é o vice-lanterna com apenas quatro pontos somados. No domingo, derrota em casa para o Red Bull Bragantino por 2 a 1. Ainda sem um treinador definido, o interino César Sampaio tem comandado a equipe. Como ainda não chegou a um acordo de rescisão com Pedro Caixinha, o clube paulista não pode contratar um outro profissional. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE “O Santos precisa contratar um treinador já, não tem que efetivar o Cesar Sampaio. Se não contratar… de 18 pontos ganhou 4, você sabe como é o Campeonato Brasileiro”, disse Muller. Nesta segunda (28), torcedores organizados do Santos invadiram o CT Rei Pelé para cobrar jogadores pela má campanha na Série A. Segundo informações do […]
Novo treinador do Corinthians, Dorival Júnior já tem data de estreia confirmada
Dorival Júnior, novo treinador do Corinthians (Rodrigo Coca / Agência Corinthians) Nesta segunda-feira (28), o Corinthians oficializou a contratação de Dorival Júnior, substituindo Ramón Díaz, com um contrato válido até 31 de dezembro de 2026. O nome do treinador inclusive já foi registrado no BID (Boletim Informativo Diário) da CBF. Dessa forma, ele já irá fazer sua estreia pelo Timão na próxima quarta-feira (30), no confronto contra o Novorizontino, pela Copa do Brasil. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE Sonho antigo do Timão Dorival Júnior esteve no radar do Corinthians em 2023, na gestão de Duílio Monteiro Alves. Porém na época o treinador acabou acertando com o rival São Paulo. PUBLICIDADE Vale citar que o acerto em 2025 acabou acontecendo após a recusa de Tite, que esteve próximo de concretizar seu retorno ao Parque São Jorge, mas optou por uma pausa na carreira para […]
Related
Did the Knicks deserve to beat the Pistons in Game 4? | First Things First
first things first Video Details Chris Broussard reacts to the controversial no-call on Josh Hart, who hit Tim Hardaway Jr. while attempting to shoot a three as time expired. The New York Knicks ultimately defeated the Detroit Pistons in Game 4. 2 MINS AGO・first things first・3:00
Top 10 NFL Draft hauls: Ranking the teams that reeled in the most talent
Eric Williams NFL Reporter <!--> Whether it was Houston Texans GM Nick Caserio engineering a league-high seven trades or new Jacksonville Jaguars personnel head James Gladstone pulling off the surprise trade of this year’s draft, moving up three spots to take two-way player Travis Hunter at No. 2 overall, NFL teams pulled out all the stops to improve their squads.Now that the draft is over and teams are putting the finishing touches on their rosters heading into offseason work, which teams improved the most for the upcoming season? Let’s take a look at the top 10 draft hauls from the 2025 NFL Draft. ADVERTISEMENT -->Picks: No. 12 overall (1) Tyler Booker (OG) Alabama, 44 (2) Donovan Ezeiruaku (DE) Boston College, 76 (3) Shavon Revel Jr. (CB) East Carolina, 149 (5) Jaydon Blue (RB) Texas, 152 (5) Shemar James (LB) Florida, 204 (6) […]
Manchester City fan groups write open letter to Pep Guardiola over ticket prices
Manchester City supporters’ groups have written to the club’s manager Pep Guardiola over season-ticket availability and matchday ticket pricing.The letter from fan groups 1894, MCFC Food Bank Support, Solid Citizens and Trade Union Blues congratulates Guardiola on guiding the team to the FA Cup final after a 2-0 semi-final win over Nottingham Forest on Sunday and asks him for a “favour”, urging him to speak with the club’s CEO Ferran Soriano.Advertisement“Pep, congratulations on leading us to another Wembley final,” the letter reads. “Before the Forest game you said you understood the fact that fans are facing economic pressures. We are glad you recognise this and you have said that you prefer the fanbase to be alive and not passive.“With this in mind we ask you for one more favour.“Your friends at the club have done many good things. Can you […]
Muller inclui novo candidato ao rebaixamento no Brasileirão: “Sabe como é”
Muller é comentarista esportivo - Divulgação Muller ligou o sinal de alerta para o Santos neste início de Brasileirão. Com seis rodadas completadas até aqui, o Peixe é o vice-lanterna com apenas quatro pontos somados. No domingo, derrota em casa para o Red Bull Bragantino por 2 a 1. Ainda sem um treinador definido, o interino César Sampaio tem comandado a equipe. Como ainda não chegou a um acordo de rescisão com Pedro Caixinha, o clube paulista não pode contratar um outro profissional. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE “O Santos precisa contratar um treinador já, não tem que efetivar o Cesar Sampaio. Se não contratar… de 18 pontos ganhou 4, você sabe como é o Campeonato Brasileiro”, disse Muller. Nesta segunda (28), torcedores organizados do Santos invadiram o CT Rei Pelé para cobrar jogadores pela má campanha na Série A. Segundo informações do […]
2026 NFL mock draft: Arch Manning among five QBs taken in first round and other way-too-early picks
Getty Images The 2025 NFL Draft is still warm, but it is never too early to familiarize one self with the prospects who could be a part of next year's class. Rather than consider this a concrete projection about where these players will be taken a year from now, fans should look at it as more of a watch list. The prospects below should be stars of college football this fall and have the potential to reach the heights attained by those taken Thursday night. Green Bay set the standard for hosting the NFL Draft experience and now the burden falls on Pittsburgh. Without further ado, let's kick this off!The 2026 NFL Draft order was determined using the reverse Super Bowl odds from FanDuel Sportsbook from before the 2025 NFL Draft kicked off. For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis […]
Novo treinador do Corinthians, Dorival Júnior já tem data de estreia confirmada
Dorival Júnior, novo treinador do Corinthians (Rodrigo Coca / Agência Corinthians) Nesta segunda-feira (28), o Corinthians oficializou a contratação de Dorival Júnior, substituindo Ramón Díaz, com um contrato válido até 31 de dezembro de 2026. O nome do treinador inclusive já foi registrado no BID (Boletim Informativo Diário) da CBF. Dessa forma, ele já irá fazer sua estreia pelo Timão na próxima quarta-feira (30), no confronto contra o Novorizontino, pela Copa do Brasil. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE Sonho antigo do Timão Dorival Júnior esteve no radar do Corinthians em 2023, na gestão de Duílio Monteiro Alves. Porém na época o treinador acabou acertando com o rival São Paulo. PUBLICIDADE Vale citar que o acerto em 2025 acabou acontecendo após a recusa de Tite, que esteve próximo de concretizar seu retorno ao Parque São Jorge, mas optou por uma pausa na carreira para […]
Be the first to leave a comment