Nine early MLB takes on Braves’ start, NL dominance, AL East race — on point or overreactions?

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MLB teams have played between 17 and 20 games heading into Thursday’s action and already fans and pundits are reacting — and of course overreacting — to the early season results with takes on everything from player and team performances to injury ramifications to the big names most likely to be traded.

Here are nine statements I’ve heard around baseball so far this season and my takes on whether they are on point or overreactions.

Do you agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments section, or better yet, share your takes or overreactions on other baseball topics.

1. The NL is now the most dominant of the two leagues — by far.

ON POINT

The National League has eight teams with positive run differentials compared to just four teams in the American League. The NL has eight teams with double-digit wins compared to five in the AL. Last year, I thought the Dodgers, Padres and Phillies were the three best teams in MLB, with the Yankees fourth; that order hasn’t changed for me this year, but after that group, my next three best teams are all from the NL — the Mets, Cubs and Diamondbacks.

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2. The Yankees remain the favorites in the AL East despite losing their ace, Gerrit Cole, to season-ending Tommy John surgery, and Luis Gil for several months with a lat strain.

ON POINT

New York is still the team to beat in the AL East even though it lost Cole for the season, Gil and Marcus Stroman are on the injured list, and Max Fried (3-0, 1.88 ERA) is the only one in the rotation off to a good start. However, the Orioles and Red Sox are dealing with significant injuries to starting pitchers, which has leveled the playing field. I foresee a competitive division and a tight race that could involve all five teams (more on that below), but I’d give New York the nod.

The Yankees are a much better defensive team than they were last year with upgrades at second and third base and in center and right field. Their offense is more than solid thanks to the rapid development of young players such as Ben Rice, Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe and Jasson Domínguez, and Aaron Judge is the early front-runner for AL MVP.

The $218 million man, Max Fried, has delivered for the Yankees. (Charles LeClaire / Imagn Images)

3. The Braves’ run as a playoff team is finally over.

OVERREACTION

The Braves are off to a rough start but that should have been somewhat expected because Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. started the season on the IL, they lost starting pitchers Max Fried and Charlie Morton in free agency, and another one of their best starters, Reynaldo López, had arthroscopic shoulder surgery last week. In addition, their biggest free-agent signing, Jurickson Profar, tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs and received an 80-game suspension.

Combine that with slow starts from veteran players like first baseman Matt Olson and center fielder Michael Harris II and it’s easy to see why they’re sitting at 5-13. However, they activated Strider from the IL on Wednesday, and Acuña isn’t far behind. This team is too deep and strong not to get back in the race and be in wild-card contention come late September.

Remember, it’s only April 17, and they play 162 games. The Braves have made the postseason seven years in a row and I don’t see that streak ending.

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4. The good starts by the Padres, Giants, Cubs, Mets and Phillies are proof that we’ve underestimated the strength of the field after the Dodgers.

ON POINT

The Dodgers have the best team in baseball and should still be viewed as the favorites to win the NL West, the National League pennant and another World Series title. Without a doubt, their roster is the best and deepest in the game. But I think many have underestimated how good the field is and how close some of these teams are to the Dodgers, particularly the Padres and Phillies, who are both capable of winning the World Series.

L.A. has Blake Snell on the IL with shoulder inflammation, Roki Sasaki is still developing, Tony Gonsolin remains on the IL with a back injury, Clayton Kershaw is just starting his rehab and Tyler Glasnow has been inconsistent. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been the Dodgers’ only starter who has looked like an ace.

On paper, yes, the Dodgers are the best team. However, the Phillies and Padres can pitch with L.A. and have the bats to hit good pitching in big games. The Cubs and Giants are much improved while the Diamondbacks and Mets both look like playoff teams as well. We’ve underestimated the field.

5. Luis Robert Jr. remains the most likely player to be traded between now and the trade deadline.

ON POINT

Decision-makers throughout the industry believe Robert will be traded by the White Sox sometime before the July 31 trade deadline. The Mariners, Dodgers, Reds, Phillies and Royals are all seen as logical fits for the toolsy center fielder who is just two years removed from a 38-homer, 20-stolen base season and has a Gold Glove Award on his resume. The White Sox are looking for two top-10 (organizational) prospects in return. Only time will tell if they’re able to get that for Robert, who is off to a poor start. He’s under team control through 2027.

Luis Robert Jr. batted .143 in his first 66 plate appearances. (Patrick Gorski / Imagn Images)

6. The slow start by Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara makes it less likely he’ll get traded at this year’s deadline.

OVERREACTION

Alcantara is 2-0 with a 4.70 ERA and 3.88 FIP in three starts. He’s struck out 12, walked eight and allowed 10 hits over 15 1/3 innings. His sinker has averaged 96.8 mph compared to 97.6 mph before he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. His changeup is down 2 mph and his four-seamer is down 0.5 mph. His command and control are not quite where they were before.

However, Alcantara is returning after a long layoff, and it takes time for pitchers to regain their past form after Tommy John surgery. He feels great, doesn’t have any pain, and doesn’t have pitch limits. By June, I think he’ll be pitching like he did when he won the NL Cy Young Award in 2022, and come July, his trade value will make him the most coveted trade target in the sport. (Alcantara is signed through the 2026 season with a team option for 2027.) The Marlins will only trade him if they can bring back a haul, which they should be able to do if he can pitch at his accustomed level.

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7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s contract extension will significantly change the market for future star players who reach free agency before age 29.

ON POINT

The Guerrero signing was great news for mid-20s superstars and bad news for the 30 clubs, who saw the market for that group of players go from $300 million to $500 million overnight. Sure, some argue that Juan Soto’s $765 million contract was the deal that did that, but he’s a generational talent, this era’s version of Ted Williams. Others point to Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million contract, but the net present value of the deal was closer to $460 million and he’s the best overall talent in the sport.

Guerrero should have been comped to players like Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Fernando Tatis Jr., Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge — all of whom signed contracts between $300 million and $365 million. The Guerrero signing means that impending free agent Kyle Tucker can now expect a contract north of $500 million if he has a strong season. Vlad changed the market for star players forever.

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‘The deal is creative:’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s extension sends aftershocks throughout MLB

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million extension included a $325 million signing bonus. (Mark Blinch / Getty Images)

8. The Rockies have “overtaken” the White Sox as the worst team in baseball.

OVERREACTION

The Rockies are clearly the worst team in the NL. Their 3-14 record entering Wednesday should not surprise anyone based on their lack of activity in free agency and the trade market over the past several years. However, to say they are the worst team in MLB after 17 games isn’t fair.

I still think the White Sox (4-13) will be the worst team by the All-Star break. Chicago’s young starters have been a bright spot to start the year (their rotation has a 3.95 ERA), but we’ll see how they do as their outings increase. The Rockies have more experienced starters with track records of pitching deep into the season.

Both teams have a long way to go before they will contend. It’s going to be another long summer on the South Side of Chicago and in the Mile High City.

9. All five AL East teams will finish the season with winning records.

ON POINT

The AL East is the only division that has a chance for all five teams to finish with winning records. I believe the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jay and Rays can all remain in the postseason hunt all season long. I won’t be surprised if 90 wins is enough to win the division. I will be surprised if two wild-card teams don’t come from this division.
All five teams rank in the top seven in runs scored in the AL and all of them are dealing with injuries in their starting rotations. We could be in for a race for the ages.

(Top image: Fernando Tatis Jr.: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images; Matt Olson: Mike Carlson / MLB Photos via Getty Images)

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