Yes, It’s Early, but These MLB Last-Place Teams Should Be Worried

An expanded playoff field in Major League Baseball gives teams plenty of runway to recover from poor starts.

The 2021 Atlanta Braves won the World Series despite not getting over .500 for the first time until Aug. 6. The 2022 Philadelphia Phillies won the National League pennant after firing Joe Girardi following a 22-29 start.

The Phillies were succeeded as NL champs by the Arizona Diamondbacks, who were under .500 in 2023 as late as Aug. 14. And a quarter of last season’s playoff field — the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros in the American League and the New York Mets and San Diego Padres in the NL — didn’t get over .500 for good until June 30 or later.

But even just after Tax Day, some slow starts are more concerning than others. Here’s why teams entering today in last place in their division should be concerned, even with 140-plus games remaining.

Baltimore Orioles (7-10, 3 1/2 GB)

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are perpetually flawed and often poorly run, while the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays are always straddling the line between contending and rebuilding. So the Orioles seemed prime for a long run atop the AL East when their long tank yielded a 101-61 record in 2023. But Baltimore is just 39-43 since last year’s All-Star break, and this slow start has been marred by an AL-worst 5.29 ERA from a rotation that lacks a true ace.

Chicago White Sox (4-13, 5 1/2 GB)

Fresh off going 41-121 last season and usurping the ’62 Mets as the losingest team of the modern era, the White Sox are … on a 121-loss pace again. They’ll probably avoid such an ignoble place in history this time around, but things aren’t looking very bright for a team that ranks last in the majors with a .579 OPS and zero saves. Even the 2024 White Sox had two saves through 17 games!

Don’t Call Them the Sacramento Athletics & Houston Astros (8-10, 3 GB)

Do we live in a world where the homeless and basically owner-less Athletics have the rosiest outlook among last-place teams? The A’s have the same minus-13 run differential as the division-leading Texas Rangers, while the Astros — who have won the AL West in each of the last seven full seasons — have yet to win consecutive games. Houston recovered from a 12-24 start last year, but the dynasty appears to be just about over.

Atlanta Braves (5-13, 6 GB)

We don’t need to look back too far to find a reminder of how dangerous it can be to count out the Braves. But Atlanta is 41-44 since last season’s All-Star break. And the historic start by the NL West’s big four means the Braves — who have the fourth-worst ERA in the NL and the second-most strikeouts at the plate — may already be in division-title-or-bust mode.

Pittsburgh Pirates (7-12, 4 GB)

Imagine not winning a pennant since 1979 and recording the fewest victories of any NL team since 2000, but having a generational pitching talent like Paul Skenes … and then doing absolutely nothing to capitalize on the brief window in which he’ll be pitching for a small-market team at a bargain rate. Bob Nutting, everyone! But at least the Pirates aren’t the most hopeless team in baseball.

Colorado Rockies (3-15, 11 1/2 GB)

That honor, such as it is, belongs to the Rockies, who are off to their worst 18-game start ever while playing in a division that may send four teams to the playoffs. The Rockies rank last in the majors with a 5.29 ERA, while their .526 road OPS would be the worst ever — by nearly 100 points — for a team infamous for its light-hitting ways outside of Coors Field. Oh, and Kris Bryant — who has generated -1.6 WAR per Baseball-Reference since signing a seven-year deal 13 months after the Rockies ran off future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado — just hit the IL with degenerative disk disease in his back. Other than that…