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On Saturday, the NBA playoffs tip off, and the Boston Celtics will look to defend their title and try to become the first team since the 2017-2018 Warriors to repeat as champions.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Celtics enter the postseason with +195 odds to win the NBA Finals. They have the second-shortest odds behind Oklahoma City. The Thunder are currently +165 to win it all, following a dominant 68-14 regular season, which is the best record in the league.
We already have six matchups set for the first round, while the top-seeded Thunder and Cavaliers await their respective first-round opponents.
Let’s take a look at each series, and find a betting angle for every matchup.
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Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
The Celtics are -5000 to win the series, while the Magic are +1600. Before you automatically pencil the Celtics in to advance to the next round, consider the recent series history between these two teams.
The Magic went 2-1 against the Celtics this year and have gone 6-4 against them over the last three seasons combined, including four double-digit victories. They have great size and the defensive skills to bother the defending champs, so maybe this isn’t as easy as the odds would indicate.
Orlando can win a game and maybe even two, but I don’t think we see an upset here. I don’t think the underdog has enough scoring punch, as the Magic are dead last in the NBA in 3-pointers made and in 3-point percentage. And they’re facing a hungry and rested Celtics team, so I’m going Under on the Magic team total in Game 1.
PICK: Magic Game 1 Under 95.5 points scored
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are now -165 favorites and the Bucks are at +135 odds for this first-round matchup.
This is a rematch of last year’s Round 1 series, a series that the Pacers won in six games. What’s also similar about this year, in addition to the matchup, is that the availability of the Bucks’ stars is a looming question.
Last year, Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the series with an injury, while Damian Lillard played in only four of the six games. This year, Lillard’s status is in question, as he recovers from a blood clot. Reports indicate optimism about Lillard’s return, but the Bucks conveyed optimism about Antetokounmpo last postseason, too. And as soon as the playoffs ended, it was clear he was never close to playing.
Without a healthy Lillard, I can only look to the underrated Pacers.
PICK: Pacers (-165) to win series
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks
This will be a fun series. This is a Pistons team that went from 14 wins last season to 44 this year. The Knicks are -400 to win the series, and the Pistons are underdogs at +310.
While the Knicks are the heavy favorites, I think Detroit’s resurgence has flown under the radar and is very live to pull the upset here. These teams met four times in the regular season. The Pistons went 3-1, with two wins in New York. They, remarkably, have not won a playoff game since May 2008, but the Pistons have been outstanding on both sides of the ball in the second half of the season.
My bet here is that Detroit wins the series 4-2, which will be a 9-1 payout. I think if the Pistons do win, they likely won’t sweep or win in five games. Winning Game 7 on the road would be tough. Game 6 would be in Detroit and is possibly where the Pistons could close out the Knicks. I expect this to be a very competitive series.
PICK: Correct series score (+850) for Pistons to win 4-2
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
I think many were surprised when the 7-seed Warriors opened as -200 favorites. The current line is Warriors -190, Rockets +155.
Golden State won the season series 3-2, and it’s worth noting that these teams met in the playoffs three times in four years between 2015 and 2018. That includes twice in the conference finals. Here we are a decade later, and the Warriors have a lot of the same faces.
I think the Warriors’ experience ultimately wins out, but the Rockets have some potential advantages here in terms of size, youth and physicality that could wear down the older former champs.
I don’t have the guts to pick the upset. But I will take Houston +1.5 games, meaning this bet wins if Houston wins the series or if it goes seven games.
PICK: Rockets (-115) +1.5 games
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are -195 favorites and the Timberwolves are at +160.
The series schedule is interesting here, as the older Lakers get a break early in the series with two days off between games. But as the series goes on, there is only one day off between games once we get to Game 4 and beyond.
Can the older Lakers hold up to the younger, athletic T-Wolves over the course of what could be a long series? I think having LeBron and Luka, and having the potential deciding game in Los Angeles will get the Lakers to the finish line. But it might go the distance.
PICK: Timberwolves (-140) +1.5 games
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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
This is a fascinating first-round series, with a ton of talent on both sides.
This series is a coin flip according to oddsmakers, with both teams at -110 odds to win. The opening line had the Nuggets as -190 favorites, but there has been great enthusiasm for this resurgent Clippers team, who finished with a 15-2 run to close the season.
I understand the love for the ultra-talented Clippers, and they might ultimately win this series. But I have a hard time trusting Kawhi Leonard to stay healthy until I see him actually do it for the first time in several years.
This should be an outstanding matchup, but I’m going with the best player in the world, Nikola Jokić, and homecourt advantage to prevail.
PICK: Correct series score (+375) for Nuggets to win 4-3
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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