Athletics first baseman Tyler Soderstrom has been on fire to open the MLB season, hitting his major league-leading ninth homer in an 8-0 win over the White Sox on Thursday. Soderstrom is batting .315 with 18 RBIs after helping the A’s win for the fourth time in their last five games. He has a difficult matchup on Friday, though, since Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 28 strikeouts in four starts. The latest MLB prop bets at BetMGM Sportsbook price Soderstrom at +450 to go yard again, so should you add him to your MLB HR picks?
Teammates Brent Rooker (+375) and Shea Langeliers (+390) have even shorter MLB odds to hit a home run on Friday. Other players with short MLB HR odds include Yankees slugger Aaron Judge (+230) and Phillies star Kyle Schwarber (+300). With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. It went 2-for-3 in HR bets Monday, hitting on Shohei Ohtani at +290 and Bobby Witt at +340, then hit Soderstrom for a +370 payout on Tuesday, Matt Mervis (+525) on Wednesday and Junior Caminero (+520) on Thursday. The SportsLine Projection Model has nailed a HR prop in eight of the last 10 days and is up 21.65 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Friday. These three picks can be parlayed for +21476 odds and would pay out $1,073.80 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Francisco Lindor (+500)
Lindor has only hit one home run so far this season, but he has gone deep at least 30 times in each of the last two seasons. He saw the ball well against St. Louis on Thursday, going 3 of 4 at the plate with an RBI to increase his batting average to .268 this season. Lindor is facing Cardinals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas, who is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA through his first three starts in 2025. New York’s shortstop is 7 of 17 (.412) lifetime against Mikolas.
“While he hasn’t homered off Mikolas yet, the solid contact rate suggests the potential is there,” SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner said. “We priced this prop at +450, so the +500 on FanDuel offers strong value, especially compared to Caesars, where it’s as low as +375.”
Yandy Diaz (+480)
The 33-year-old homered on Sunday and Monday before adding hits on Tuesday and Wednesday, so he is in good form. He is facing Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon, who is 1-3 (5.48 ERA) with five home runs allowed this season. Diaz has been outstanding against left-handed pitchers, posting a .993 OPS compared to .520 against righties. All three of his home runs this season have come at George M. Steinbrenner Field, which is Tampa Bay’s temporary home.
“Given that right-handed hitters slugged significantly better against Rodón last season—and accounted for 28 of the 31 home runs he gave up—Díaz is in a good spot,” Fetner said. “We value this prop at +430, so the +480 price tag on FanDuel is solid.”
Isaac Paredes (+520)
Paredes ranks second in Houston’s lineup with 16 hits this season, and he is also tied for the team-lead in home runs (3). He homered in three straight games last weekend at home before going hitless in a three-game series at St. Louis earlier this week. Paredes is facing Padres starter Kyle Hart, who has allowed seven earned runs through less than 12 innings on the mound this season. He gave up five earned runs across just 0.2 innings in his lone road start, which came against the Cubs two weeks ago.
“The model takes Hart’s road struggles into account, and with Paredes back at home, we like this matchup for the Astros‘ 3B. We have this line set at +470,” Fetner said. Once again, it’s FanDuel offering the best price for Paredes to hit a home run at +520.
Want more MLB picks for Friday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine. Need more? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, (55-27 roll on baseball picks). Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 9-2 on his last 11 MLB ATS picks and you can find all his latest selections here.
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