Central Division rivals will square off in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs as Jamie Benn and the Dallas Stars host Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche in Game 1 on Saturday. This first-round meeting comes nearly one year after these teams faced off in the second round of the 2024 NHL playoffs, which the Stars won in six games. Dallas finished the 2025 regular season four points ahead of Colorado in the NHL standings, but also concluded the campaign on a four-game losing skid. The Avs, who took two of three in the regular-season series, dropped three of their last five. Stars forward Jason Robertson (lower body) is considered week-to-week and will miss Game 1.
Puck drop from American Airlines Center in Dallas is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Colorado is a -134 favorite on the money line (risk $134 to win $100) in the latest Stars vs. Avalanche odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while Dallas is a +112 underdog (risk $100 to win $114). The over/under on total goals scored is 5.5. Before making any Avalanche vs. Stars picks, be sure to see the NHL predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. It was profitable during the 2024-25 NHL regular season, and it was especially strong on top-rated puck-line and over/under NHL picks, going a combined 77-53 and returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, here are three best bets for Stars vs. Avalanche on Saturday:
Stars to win (+118 on the money line)
The injury to Robertson is a big factor in why Colorado is favored, but the model loves the value of the home underdog in this spot. Dallas was 28-13 at home this season and returned profitable numbers on the money line. The Stars also have a big edge in playoff experience in the net. This will be the playoff debut for Colorado goalie Mackenzie Blackwood, while Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger has 47 career postseason appearances and a strong 2.46 goals against average in the playoffs. The model projects that Dallas wins 53% of the time. Caesars Sportsbook has the best price on the money line for Dallas at +118.
Want more NHL picks?
You’ve seen one of the best bets for Avalanche vs. Stars on Saturday. Now, get picks for every game from the model that ended the season going a combined 77-53 on over/under and puck-line picks.
Also, at SportsLine, Matt Severance is the No. 1 NHL expert, entering the NHL playoffs on a 120-62 roll on NHL sides picks, returning $2,490 for $100 players. See his best bet for this matchup at SportsLine.
Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goalscorer (+150)
The dynamic center finished the regular season with 32 goals, scoring eight of those against Central Division alone. He didn’t score a goal against Dallas during the regular season, but was responsible for the third-period game-tying goal in Game 1 of this matchup last year, which ended with Colorado winning in overtime 4-3. The model gives him nearly a 50% chance to score, much higher than the implied odds on this NHL prop.
Over 5.5 goals (-125)
The Over hit in all three regular-season games between these teams, including a 4-3 overtime win for the Avs when these teams last saw each other on March 16. Colorado has also scored four goals in each of their last two games. The model is projecting 6.3 combined goals, as the Over hits nearly 60% of the time. The Over is listed at -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
This news was originally published on this post .
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