By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, James Mirtle, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff
Can Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers make it back to the Stanley Cup Final and finish the job, or are they in danger of an early exit? Are the Florida Panthers in line to repeat, or will one of the other Atlantic Division heavyweights pick them off? What’s in store for the regular-season beasts: the Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals?
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With the postseason opening Saturday, The Athletic posed these questions and more to its NHL staff.
Here are their picks to win each first-round series, the Eastern and Western Conferences, the Conn Smythe and the Stanley Cup, as well as picks for the most overrated team and a playoff dark horse.
To analyze and critique the picks, we’ve brought in senior writers Sean Gentille, James Mirtle and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger.
Figures are rounded.
Eastern Conference
Ottawa Senators (WC2) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (1A)
| Percent of vote | Senators | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
|
4 games |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
5 games |
0.0% |
23.5% |
|
6 games |
8.8% |
32.4% |
|
7 games |
14.7% |
20.6% |
|
Total |
23.5% |
76.5% |
Gentille: As always, the only thing that gave me pause before picking the Maple Leafs is the fact that they’re the Maple Leafs.
Goldman: Not surprised to see Toronto get votes for five or six games, but if this series goes seven, how do you not pick the Pesky Sens?
Granger: When have the Leafs ever done anything the easy way? I’m with the 20.6 percent who see the Battle for Ontario going seven games, but I think this version of the Maple Leafs — with a bigger emphasis on defense and strong goaltending — gets the win.
Lazerus: I picked Ottawa. Because, let’s be honest, it would be very funny.
Mirtle: This will be the 11th Leafs series I’ve covered. They have won once. I’m picking them to win here, but Ottawa’s been a top-10 team in the second half. It’s not going to be a short, easy series.
Florida Panthers (3A) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2A)
| Percent of vote | Panthers | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
|
4 games |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
5 games |
2.9% |
2.9% |
|
6 games |
0.0% |
38.2% |
|
7 games |
14.7% |
41.2% |
|
Total |
17.6% |
82.3% |
Gentille: I picked the Lightning too, but are we sure the pendulum hasn’t swung just a liiiittle too far in the other direction? That’s a big-time gap.
Goldman: This series should be a lot closer than our votes project. At least the majority of us think it will go the distance.
Granger: I thought I was going against the grain by pushing my chips all in on Tampa Bay. Turns out, everyone had the same idea. And while we almost all picked Tampa here, we almost all have it going to at least six games, which feels right.
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Lazerus: Oddly enough, the Lightning have become the new Aleksander Barkov: the “underrated” choice that everybody makes. This feels like a trap.
Mirtle: Florida is pretty beat up and has been losing a lot lately. The Panthers look like a team that’s played too much hockey the past two years, so we’ll see.
Montreal Canadiens (WC2) vs. Washington Capitals (1M)
| Percent of vote | Canadiens | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
|
4 games |
0.0% |
8.8% |
|
5 games |
0.0% |
14.7% |
|
6 games |
5.9% |
41.2% |
|
7 games |
17.6% |
11.8% |
|
Total |
23.5% |
76.5% |
Gentille: If the Caps’ goaltending self-destructs, all bets are off. They were better down the stretch than their record suggests, though. Don’t overthink this one.
Granger: Logan Thompson is exactly where he wants to be. He thrives on doubt, and with the way Washington ended the season and his status up in the air, I think we’ll see him at his best.
Lazerus: I just hope we get more than two measly games at the Bell Centre in the playoffs. What a year that joint is having, between the 4 Nations and the playoff push. Montreal might not win the Cup, but Montrealers get the belt.
New Jersey Devils (3M) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2M)
| Percent of vote | Devils | Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|
|
4 games |
0.0% |
2.9% |
|
5 games |
0.0% |
38.2% |
|
6 games |
5.9% |
44.1% |
|
7 games |
0.0% |
8.8% |
|
Total |
5.9% |
94.0% |
Gentille: I just don’t see how the Devils get enough goals to beat Carolina four times.
Goldman: This series would look a lot different with a healthy Jack Hughes and Jonas Siegenthaler.
Granger: These teams split the season series 2-2, but they haven’t played since the turn of the calendar, and the Devils’ injuries change things quite a bit.
Lazerus: The Devils without Jack Hughes are like a snow day with e-learning. Takes all the fun out of it.
Mirtle: Carolina might not have Mikko Rantanen, but Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven and Mark Jankowski have given it some ridiculous depth up front. That’ll be the differentiator.
Can Connor Hellebuyck carry his stellar regular-season play into the playoffs? (Jerome Miron / Imagn Images)
Western Conference
St. Louis Blues (WC2) vs. Winnipeg Jets (1C)
| Percent of vote | Blues | Jets |
|---|---|---|
|
4 games |
0.0% |
2.9% |
|
5 games |
0.0% |
17.6% |
|
6 games |
11.8% |
50.0% |
|
7 games |
8.8% |
8.8% |
|
Total |
20.6% |
79.3% |
Gentille: Picking the Blues to take a game or two is the right call, but I do think this is where it ends for them.
Goldman: Of all of the potential wild-card upsets, I thought this one would have had a little more support.
Granger: Connor Hellebuyck’s career .928 save percentage against St. Louis is his highest against any divisional opponent. I think he’ll quiet the narrative around his playoff performance quickly in this series.
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Lazerus: An .870 save percentage last year and an .886 save percentage the year before that. That’s not a narrative, Jesse, that’s cold, hard math. Hellebuyck should win the Hart Trophy this year, but he has an awful lot to prove in this series.
Mirtle: I know Winnipeg won the Presidents’ Trophy, but since when does that ever pan out!? Should be an interesting rematch of 4 Nations goaltenders, though.
Colorado Avalanche (3C) vs. Dallas Stars (2C)
| Percent of vote | Avalanche | Stars |
|---|---|---|
|
4 games |
2.9% |
0.0% |
|
5 games |
2.9% |
0.0% |
|
6 games |
41.2% |
8.8% |
|
7 games |
20.6% |
23.5% |
|
Total |
67.6% |
32.3% |
Gentille: We’ll see how this one plays out, but injuries have stolen what seemed to be an all-timer.
Goldman: If the Stars have a chance in this series, it’s going to be in six or seven — the longer this series goes, the better chance of Heiskanen returning.
Granger: Dallas’ key injuries obviously swung things in Colorado’s favor, but don’t count out the Stars. They have one of the deepest rosters in the league, and Pete DeBoer could have a coaching edge. He’s 3-0 against Jared Bednar in the playoffs and has bested him with three teams.
Lazerus: The Avalanche addressed some of their needs at the deadline, for sure. But they still can’t match Dallas’ depth, even without Jason Robertson. I’m still leaning Stars — Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn are currently their third line — but it’s a toss-up.
Minnesota Wild (WC1) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (1P)
| Percent of vote | Wild | Golden Knights |
|---|---|---|
|
4 games |
0.0% |
17.6% |
|
5 games |
2.9% |
44.1% |
|
6 games |
0.0% |
23.5% |
|
7 games |
5.9% |
5.9% |
|
Total |
8.8% |
91.1% |
Gentille: No series had a bigger split than this one. As it should be. Minnesota is outmatched, even with Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek back in the picture.
Goldman: It’s hard to see how the Golden Knights lose in Round 1 in two straight years. The Wild know a thing or two about that.
Granger: Vegas’ center depth should be a major matchup problem in this series. Jack Eichel is having a career year, and Tomas Hertl, William Karlsson, Nicolas Roy and Brett Howden complete a formidable group.
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Lazerus: Poor Wild fans. Every year, such hope. Every year, such mediocrity.
Edmonton Oilers (3P) vs. Los Angeles Kings (2P)
| Percent of vote | Oilers | Kings |
|---|---|---|
|
4 games |
0.0% |
2.9% |
|
5 games |
0.0% |
2.9% |
|
6 games |
20.6% |
23.5% |
|
7 games |
14.7% |
35.3% |
|
Total |
35.3% |
64.6% |
Gentille: And here I thought I was being a rebel.
Goldman: If the Kings are going to get past their demons in Edmonton, this is the year to do it.
Granger: The Oilers seem more vulnerable than in years past with all the late-season injuries. More importantly, this is the best the Kings have looked in years. The step Quinton Byfield took in his game this season makes this team feel so much more dangerous.
Lazerus: This feels a little like Tampa, where maybe we’re all leaning too hard in the contrarian direction. But it’s really hard to feel good about Edmonton’s goaltending situation.
Mirtle: If regular-season Darcy Kuemper was the real deal, that’s a massive advantage here. L.A. was so strong defensively all year, too, so we’ll see if that holds up against Edmonton’s two-headed monster that is McDavid and Draisaitl.
Dark horse to win the Cup
Note: Must have +2,000 or worse odds to win Cup, with odds per BetMGM.
Gentille: Easiest call on the board. Still wouldn’t put actual money on any of them, though.
Goldman: The Blues are a fun pick, with all the similarities to their 2019 turnaround. Wouldn’t that be something if history repeated itself?
Granger: Continuing what I wrote above, I love the Kings’ makeup. Their center strength and defensive structure and Kuemper’s recent form make them an easy choice for me.
Lazerus: None of these teams is going to win the Stanley Cup. But I’m sure our friends at BetMGM will be happy to have your money.
Mirtle: Don’t listen to Old Man Laz — St. Louis is worth it given those odds and how wide open the league is this year.
Favorite that will be the biggest disappointment
Note: Must have +1,000 or better odds to win the Cup, with odds per BetMGM.
Gentille: Second-easiest call on the board. Dallas, minus Heiskanen and Robertson, is impossible to pick.
Goldman: All of this Oilers doubt could unlock another level of playoff McDavid.
Lazerus: DIG THE (BLEEP) IN. RIGHT THE (BLEEP) NOW. I’ll never doubt Draisaitl after what he did a few years ago on one leg, and I’ll never doubt McDavid after what he did last year. Bet against those guys at your own peril.
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Granger: The Panthers are the most likely team to lose in the first round, but that’s purely based on opponent.
Mirtle: I went with Edmonton, but none of these outside of Carolina would surprise me this year.
Eastern Conference champion
Gentille: Guess everyone loves Andrei Vasilevskiy and hates the Metro Division.
Lazerus: More like the Meh-tro, amirite?
Granger: I fit both of these categories. Well, I don’t hate the Metro, but I expect the Eastern champ to come out of the Atlantic.
Goldman: These picks are going to age well when the Senators upset the Leafs in Round 1. Just kidding. Kind of.
Mirtle: I guess the staff have been into the model’s Leafs Kool-Aid a bit.
Western Conference champion
| Team | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
|
38.2% |
|
|
26.5% |
|
|
14.7% |
|
|
14.7% |
|
|
2.9% |
|
|
2.9% |
Goldman: The Robertson injury plus a playoff start without Heiskanen has crushed a lot of confidence in the Stars and likely sent votes to Colorado and Vegas instead. Maybe we’re all sleeping on Winnipeg a bit, but its path would take it through the Avs.
Lazerus: I might look foolish in a few days (it’s my natural state), but I think everyone’s still sleeping too hard on the Stars. Jake Oettinger vs. Mackenzie Blackwood, who’s never played in a playoff game? Come on, guys. Don’t overthink this.
Gentille: I went Vegas here, but you could easily sell me on any of the top three. There’s no way Winnipeg should have the same odds as Dallas.
Granger: We’re not giving enough respect to the team that’s clearly been the best team in the West all season: Winnipeg.
Stanley Cup champion
Goldman: As someone who picked a Colorado-Tampa Bay Final early in the season, it’s nice to see everyone has a similar vision. Naturally, it’s a matchup of two teams that have an early best-on-best in Round 1. What could go wrong?
Gentille: In October, I went with the Stars. Oops! But yeah, I like Vegas here, too. No glaring holes.
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Lazerus: Still picking the Stars. I’ve picked them for 147 consecutive years, and I’m going to be right eventually.
Granger: Tampa Bay has looked like such a complete team, and Vasilevskiy is back to his elite form. It’s so hard to pick against that combination right now.
Mirtle: My Lightning-Avs final appears wholly unoriginal. Is it too late to make changes, editor?
Nikita Kucherov picked up his second consecutive Art Ross Trophy this season. (Claus Andersen / Getty Images)
Conn Smythe winner
Gentille: Last year’s McDavid-related hiccup aside, the leading scorer for the Cup champion tends to take the Conn Smythe. For me, that’s Eichel.
Goldman: Just a group of MVP-caliber players at the top of this list who know how to amp it up in the playoffs. Boring answer, but any of those names would make a lot of sense.
Granger: I love seeing three goalies getting votes in this poll, and I agree with the three names as the most likely to win a Conn Smythe.
Lazerus: Respect for the Sam Reinhart pick. He’s a real one.
Mirtle: Respect for the Mitch Marner pick. (It wasn’t me!) Goodbye, narratives … hello, free agency.
(Top photo of Matthew Tkachuk: Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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