Stanley Cup tiers: Anonymous GM and executives rate every playoff team

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There isn’t a consensus, clear-cut Stanley Cup favorite this year. Complicating matters further is that a few of the most highly touted contenders are ironically playing against one another in the first round.

“This year’s playoffs, more than previous years, is all contingent on matchups. In the East, I think the two best teams are Tampa and Florida, but they’re playing one another in Round 1,” one NHL executive said.

There are other contenders with perceived flaws, meanwhile, that have an easier potential path of opponents through the playoffs, which makes the 2025 postseason as wide open as ever.

Fans, media and statistical models are all giving their takes and projections, but what do people inside the league think? We assembled a nine-person anonymous panel, including an NHL GM and eight additional high-level NHL front office executives. We asked each person to sort all 16 playoff teams into a Tier from 1 to 5 and tallied the average votes.

This is how we explained the Cup contender tiers to our panel:

• Tier 1: Stanley Cup favorites (top 3-4 teams)
• Tier 2: Strong Cup contender (high-end contenders just below the inner circle)
• Tier 3: Dark horse (solid team that could make a deep run if it got hot, but has glaring question marks/concerns)
• Tier 4: Long shot (maybe they can get hot and win a round, but they aren’t realistically contending for the Cup)
• Tier 5: First-round cannon fodder (Should feel lucky just to be in the playoffs)

Let’s dive in.

Tier 1

Colorado Avalanche
Average rating: 1.2

Colorado received a Tier 1 vote from seven of our nine panelists, the most of any team in the playoffs.

GM Chris MacFarland has impressively improved Colorado’s roster midseason. He stabilized the rocky goaltending situation by swapping Mackenzie Blackwood in for Alexandar Georgiev. Colorado’s center depth behind Nathan MacKinnon has been transformed following the Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle acquisitions. Gabriel Landeskog’s against-all-odds return will provide a huge emotional boost. Pair that upgraded supporting cast with the star power of MacKinnon and Cale Makar and you’ve got a scary team.

Executive 1: “They’re a Jekyll and Hyde team. When they’re playing at their best, they’re super fast, they’re heavy. I think (Martin) Necas has fit in well. Their power play is excellent.”

The Avs don’t have many obvious holes, but our panelists pointed out that their path to the conference finals requires going through the Central Division gauntlet. Even the strongest Colorado believers on our panel conceded that the first-round series against Dallas is basically a toss-up.

The GM: “This is going to be an amazing series, it’s too bad it’s the first round. Both teams have a chance to win a Stanley Cup.”

Florida Panthers
Average rating: 1.3

The Panthers boast a star-studded top-nine forward group, an elite defensive structure, a championship pedigree and a nasty, playoff-style physical identity. Most importantly, it appears that everybody will be healthy for Game 1. 

Executive 2: “I love Florida. It’s contingent on health — (Matthew) Tkachuk’s a big factor for them — but I don’t think any team is better equipped to succeed in the playoffs than Florida in terms of the DNA of that team. Bringing in guys like (Brad) Marchand is the perfect fit.”

Executive 3: “They’re so deep. Their centers are great. I like Seth Jones, I like their defense. They’re mean, they’ve been there before. They’re not going to be intimidated.”

The biggest hurdle for the Panthers is that they have arguably the toughest opponent in the East in the first round, facing a rejuvenated Lightning team. And despite getting healthy, a couple of panelists expressed concern about potential fatigue and physical wear and tear after appearing in back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals.

Executive 1: “Florida is tired and you can see it. The fatigue is going to get to them. The 4 Nations really f—-ed up some of their guys and contributed to the fatigue.”

Tampa Bay Lightning
Average rating: 1.4

Tampa Bay has resurrected itself as a high-end Stanley Cup contender. Last year, the Lightning were rated in Tier 3, but now they’re back as a Tier 1 favorite.

Jake Guentzel has been a home run signing, Ryan McDonagh’s return has revitalized the club’s blue line and defensive structure, and the Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde deadline pickups have solidified the once-weak forward depth. Tampa’s power play and penalty kill both rank top 10 in the NHL. Brandon Hagel (90 points) and Anthony Cirelli (27 goals and Selke-caliber defensive numbers) have hit a new gear this season.

However, the biggest reason our panel is more bullish on Tampa than last year is Andrei Vasilevskiy’s return to elite form after a disappointing 2023-24 campaign. He has played to a ludicrous .930 save percentage over his last 30 games.

Executive 3: “The goalie’s unreal. With him, they’ve always got a chance.”

The GM: “(Nikita) Kucherov, (Brayden) Point, (Victor) Hedman, and the goaltender’s playing as well as anybody. They’re going to be a tough team to beat.”

The major concern, of course, is that they have to play the defending Stanley Cup champions in the first round. And even if they get past Florida, it could take a ton out of them physically, which could catch up to them deeper in the postseason.

Tier 2

Dallas Stars
Average rating: 1.7

Initially, the Stars received several Tier 1 votes. Rival front offices love Dallas’ stacked forward group and Jake Oettinger. But as injury news trickled in — Miro Heiskanen’s availability is questionable for the first round and Jason Robertson is week to week with a lower-body injury — a couple of our executives decided to change their votes, which narrowly bumped the Stars down to Tier 2.

Those injury concerns, coupled with a seven-game winless skid to close out the regular season, have created some doubts, even though the Stars are still viewed as having an elite roster.

The GM: “Without Heiskanen in the lineup, it’s going to be a huge task (to beat Colorado). Down the stretch, they’ve been losing games and it’s really been on the defensive side.”

Executive 1: “I think Heiskanen is the most underrated and underappreciated defenseman in the NHL. Their coach is good. They’re a heavy team — (Roope) Hintz is giant, Robertson is giant, Rantanen is giant. They got all these big f—ing guys all over the place, and they all can play. They’re as close to a complete team as I’ve seen. If he’s (Heiskanen) compromised (though), everything changes.”

Vegas Golden Knights
Average rating: 1.8

Vegas has flown a little bit under the radar among top contenders, but many executives warned us not to sleep on them as a Cup threat.

The GM: “I think people are underestimating Vegas because they might not have seen them do enough at the deadline. I think they did all their business early.”

Executive 3: “It’s the team that doesn’t do anything sexy at the deadline that usually wins.”

Executive 1: “They’ve won before, they’ve got strengths at all positions and at every part of their lineup, they’re big, they’re good through the middle, they’ve got a goalie who’s won a Cup — how do you not put them in the first tier?”

The execs we spoke to raved about Vegas’ blue line, which has an enviable mix of authoritative size, skating, puck-moving skill and offensive chops. They also have four lines that can all score, the second-best power play in the league, and a high-end defensive structure. The Golden Knights may lack the game-breaking stars, besides Jack Eichel, that Tier 1 contenders such as Colorado and Tampa Bay possess, but overall, they are viewed as a deep, well-balanced contender with very few flaws.

Is this the year Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews elevate their games in the playoffs? (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)

Toronto Maple Leafs
Average rating: 2.2

The Leafs aren’t in the same weight class as Tampa and Florida in the Atlantic, but they’re still viewed as having a shot at contending for the Cup if everything breaks right.

Executive: 1: “The Leafs have improved their defense, improved their goaltending. Their forwards are exceptional, they have all the firepower. It scares me that they’ve lost to Ottawa six out of the last seven times they’ve played them, so that could be a tough matchup.”

Toronto’s power play is in dominant form (which hasn’t always been the case in years past), Anthony Stolarz .926 save percentage was the best in the NHL this season, the blue line is deeper following the Brandon Carlo acquisition, and the club’s embraced a hard-nosed, low-event playing style under Craig Berube that should thereotically translate better to playoff hockey. All of that is encouraging and yet, as always, it’s going to come down to the big guns actually delivering offensively.

Executive 2: “They’re a good team, but they’re not a team I want to bet on just because (Mitch) Marner and (Auston) Matthews are notorious for not elevating their game in the playoffs. But even worse is that Matthews has been a shell of his former self this year … Do you really wanna bet on Matthews and Marner, the two least reliable playoff performers out there?”

Winnipeg Jets
Average rating: 2.3

Most executives we spoke to view the Jets as a legitimate contender, but weren’t quite as high on them as their league-best record indicates. Only one of the nine panelists rated them in Tier 1, with the rest opting for Tier 2 or 3.

There are mixed reasons for that. One executive pointed to Nikolaj Ehlers’ injury and the uncertainty surrounding how effective Gabriel Vilardi will be upon returning from injury. “If they were completely healthy, I’d say they’re a Tier 1 contender,” said Executive 1, who ultimately voted for them in Tier 2.

Others believe they’re quite reliant on Connor Hellebuyck, whose playoff track record has been underwhelming.

Executive 2: “I don’t think they have the same high-end elite (forwards). Yes, you have (Mark) Scheifele and (Kyle) Connor, but I don’t think you have the big guns (that other elite contenders have). Anytime you have a goalie like Hellebuyck, you have an X-factor. But goaltending isn’t always as reliable to bet on.”

However, the GM on our panel strongly believes that this could be the year the Jets finally break through.

The GM: “They’ve learned (from) what happened last year and they’ve been really focused from the beginning of the year. Kyle Connor is a game changer, you have Hellebuyck, the best goalie in the league. They have everything you need (to win).”

Edmonton Oilers
Average rating: 2.3

You can’t ever count out Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl because they can single-handedly win playoff games, but many panelists expressed concern about the Oilers. They barely squeaked into Tier 2, and it’s telling that they received four Tier 3 votes, compared to just one Tier 1 placement.

Executive 2: “I think this is the weakest Edmonton team we’ve seen in a bit.”

Executive 3: “No goaltending, no depth.”

Executive 1: “I think fatigue (is a concern). McDavid being hurt (at times), Draisaitl being hurt (at times). If they make a run, this would be their third deep run in the playoffs and we all know how that works with fatigue.

“And then the goalie, I still worry about Skinner. They’re going into the playoffs with the seventh or eighth-best goaltending in the West. That’s a little scary, but they’re also going in with the most talented team (in the league).”

Mattias Ekholm’s injury — he’s already been ruled out for the first round — is also viewed as a colossal blow to the back end.

“Ekholm is the stabilizer of that D core,” Executive 2 said. “He’s their best defenseman to me. He unlocks the full ability of (Evan) Bouchard.”

Los Angeles Kings
Average rating: 2.5

The Kings have catapulted from Tier 4 last year to the fringes of Tier 2 this season — the panel is finally buying into them as a dark horse contender.

L.A. has always been excellent defensively, but there are a few notable changes that made our panel more optimistic about the Kings’ chances compared to years past: Quinton Byfield’s second-half surge, Darcy Kuemper’s outstanding play, home ice advantage (they had the best home record in the league this season), and the team’s new playing style under Jim Hiller.

The GM: “They could go on a run because they have everything. They’re hard to play against. They’re amazing at home.”

Executive 2: “The only thing they’re missing is that elite scorer. But overall, they’ve just got a really well-rounded team.”

Momentum could also be an advantage. The Kings had the best record in the West from Feb. 1 to the end of the season, whereas the injury-plagued Oilers had the 10th-best record in the West in that timeframe. There’s always a fear that McDavid and Draisaitl could go nuclear on the Kings in the first round like years past, especially on the power play, but this is setting up to be a way more competitive series than last year.

Tier 3

Carolina Hurricanes
Average rating: 2.9

Last season, the Canes tied the eventual Cup-winning Panthers for the most Tier 1 votes. This year, however, the industry doesn’t view them as a heavyweight contender.

Carolina’s blue line isn’t as deep after losing its second pair of Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce in free agency. Brent Burns is also slowing down, yet continues to be heavily relied upon. Top prospect Alexander Nikishin’s arrival will be an intriguing X-factor, but this still isn’t as elite a defense corps as it once was. Up front, they don’t look as threatening without Jake Guentzel. And the Hurricanes’ power play, which ranked second-best in 2023-24, has slipped to 25th this season.

The GM: “Goaltending would be a question mark.”

This Hurricanes team has vulnerabilities and flaws, but their excellent defensive system, No. 1-ranked penalty kill, and solid Sebastian Aho/Jaccob Slavin-led core could still give them a chance to go on a run, especially because of their uniquely favorable path through the Metro Division.

Executive 2: “I think this is the weakest Carolina team we’ve seen in years but this might be their easiest path to the conference finals because they play New Jersey who’s banged up and missing their best player and the winner of Washington’s playoff series, which is the easiest playoff opponent I can imagine.”

Nobody seems bullish on the Capitals, but their first-round matchup is a “cakewalk.” (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

Washington Capitals
Average rating: 3.0

Despite finishing with the best record in the East, many executives are bearish on Washington’s chances of winning the Cup. None of the nine panelists rated the Caps as a Tier 1 contender, and they received as many votes in Tier 4 (two) as they did in Tier 2.

The good news is that their blue line is rated as a strength, the top-six forward group has been revitalized, especially with the acquisition of PL Dubois, and their special teams are above average. But there’s a perception that the Caps overachieved offensively in the regular season (they had the highest five-on-five shooting percentage in the NHL).

Executive 2: “I don’t take Washington seriously as a real, credible playoff threat.”

Washington’s goaltending situation was one of the panel’s biggest concerns. Logan Thompson has played at a Vezina Trophy-caliber level for most of the season, but he struggled immensely down the stretch (.876 save percentage in his final 11 games) and has been sidelined since early April with an injury. His durability has long been a question mark, and even if he returns for Game 1, he’s unproven and inexperienced in the postseason.

Similar to Carolina, however, the Caps’ potential playoff path through the Metro is perceived as being easier than the Atlantic route, with one executive describing their first-round series against Montreal as a “cakewalk.”

Tier 4

St. Louis Blues
Average rating: 4.0

The Blues have been one of the hottest teams in the NHL down the stretch, and nearly every executive gave them a fighting chance against the Jets in Round 1. Their top six is firing on all cylinders, the blue line has performed well as a committee, the power play is scorching hot, and they’ve defended well under Jim Montgomery.

The GM: “They’re a team that has come together. (Jordan) Binnington looks like when he won the Cup. He’s gonna give them a chance every night. They don’t have a McDavid or Draisaitl, but (they have) (Robert) Thomas, (Jordan) Kyrou, and a good supporting cast. (Colton Parayko) just came back so that’s important, too. They could win a round.”

Despite the Blues’ incredible form lately, there was a consensus feeling that this roster isn’t talented enough to win a Cup — none of the nine executives we polled rated them in Tier 3 or higher. One executive cautioned that just because a team is hot heading into the playoffs, it doesn’t mean they’re a true Cup threat. He pointed out that the Predators had an NHL-best 19-5-3 record during the last two months of the 2023-24 regular season, only to lose in the first round against Vancouver.

There was also concern around Dylan Holloway’s injury status —  he’s still being described as week to week and doesn’t appear close to returning to the lineup.

Ottawa Senators
Average rating: 4.0

By making the playoffs for the first time since 2017, the Senators are playing with house money. The Sens have seen a dramatic glow-up defensively under Travis Green, their top-four blue line led by Jake Sanderson is rock-solid, and while they lack the elite superstar forwards that Atlantic rivals such as Toronto, Tampa Bay and Florida boast, they’re still viewed as a plucky, competitive side.

The GM: “I think they can win a round at Toronto’s expense. (Linus) Ullmark is a difference maker, the excitement of not having been in the playoffs for a long time (helps). Brady Tkachuk, (Tim) Stützle, they can score goals, they have a really good power play at home. And their defense is solid — I think Sanderson has turned his game up. They could be a handful.”

Executive 2: “They’ll fight and they might match up well against Toronto. I don’t see them as a serious threat in the playoffs, but I could see them winning a round.”

Executive 1: “The 4 Nations worked against most contenders, but for them, I think it showed (Brady) Tkachuk and Sanderson what it’s really like if you wanna win. That will help them. A Toronto matchup will help them. I still question Ullmark. He’s a good, solid goalie, but he lost the starting job twice in Boston in the playoffs.”

New Jersey Devils
Average rating: 4.3

The Devils are limping into the playoffs, literally and figuratively.

New Jersey’s 18-20-4 record since Jan. 1 is by far the worst mark of all Eastern Conference playoff teams. It’s been a massive struggle to score goals, and they’ve been crushed by injuries throughout the lineup. Dougie Hamilton is back, which is a boost, and there’s cautious optimism about Jonas Siegenthaler’s potential return at some point, but they’ll still be without Jack Hughes.

Our panel isn’t buying the Devils as much of a threat.

The GM: “With all the injuries they’ve had, down the stretch they haven’t played well. Maybe they can turn it around and get back to form, but without Hughes in the lineup, I think that’s a huge loss.”

Tier 5

Minnesota Wild
Average rating: 4.9

We expected the Wild to be rated as longshots, but we were still a little surprised to see them pick up Tier 5 votes from seven of our nine executives. We thought there might be a bit more optimism surrounding Minnesota with the return of Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson-Ek and the potential X-factor that Zeev Buium could be, but the panel believes that the organization is headed for another first-round defeat.

Executive 2: “Minnesota’s a good team, they’re just not good enough to be the best team (in a playoff series). I don’t think they’re at the same level as Vegas.”

Executive 1: “They’ll be done early. I think they’re flawed. I think their offense is only driven by a handful of guys. I don’t think they’re that deep. They’ve gotten steadily worse since the season’s gone on.”

Montreal Canadiens
Average rating: 4.9

The Canadiens are a terrific story. They’re young, dynamic and flush with exciting offensive skill. Ivan Demidov’s impressive first impression is an interesting wild card, too. And nobody can forget 2010, when, as an eighth seed, Montreal miraculously came back from a 3-1 series deficit to knock off the No. 1 seed Capitals.

Despite that, the executives we spoke to are largely writing off their chances of doing any damage this postseason. They’re leaky defensively and lack contender-quality depth.

Executive 1: “Kudos to them. They’re ahead of where I thought they would be in their rebuild. I think they’re pretenders, but that shouldn’t be a slight because they should have still been a year or two away from even getting into the playoffs.”

The GM: “(Nick) Suzuki’s been as good as any player in the league since the 4 Nations, if not the best. They’ve got (Cole) Caufield, the power-play with (Patrik) Laine (is dangerous), but I still think that’s a Tier 5 team for me.”

“I’m bumping them up, but only because they ended up in the Metro bracket,” said the lone executive who voted for Montreal in Tier 4.

(Top photo of Nathan MacKinnon and Aleksander Barkov: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)

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