Several Kentucky Derby betting trends have emerged during the points era, which began in 2013. Eight of the 12 winners have picked up a win in a 100-point race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, four of them coming in the Florida Derby. Tappan Street won the Florida Derby last month, clinching his spot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. He is 10-1 in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, while Journalism is the 3-1 Kentucky Derby favorite. Journalism has won four consecutive races, including the Santa Anita Derby and San Felipe Stakes. He has the highest Beyer Speed Figure among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses, so should you back him with your 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. Sandman rallied from the back of the field to win the Arkansas Derby in his fifth start on the Kentucky Derby trail. He has made three starts at Churchill Downs and will be one of the most experienced horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field with eight career races.
However, only four Kentucky Derby horses have rallied from the back to win in the points era, while the other eight were front runners or stalkers who were never further back than third place. Sandman’s trainer, Mark Casse, has never won the Kentucky Derby in 10 attempts and has yet to have a horse finish in the money. Menez believes Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby looks more impressive than it actually was due to “an enormous pace meltdown,” so he is a horse to avoid in the first leg of the Triple Crown. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
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