The Toronto Maples Leafs will begin the quest for their first Stanley Cup since 1967 on Sunday when they host the Ottawa Senators in Game 1 of their first-round matchup in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Toronto won the Atlantic Division and had the second-most points in the Eastern Conference at 108. Ottawa, a franchise still looking for its first Cup, was the top Eastern Conference wild-card team this year.
Puck drop from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto is set for 7 p.m. ET. Toronto is a -164 favorite on the money line (risk $164 to win $100) in the latest Maple Leafs vs. Senators odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while Ottawa is a +138 underdog (risk $100 to win $138). The over/under for total goals scored is 5.5. Before making any Senators vs. Maple Leafs picks, be sure to see the NHL predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. It was profitable during the 2024-25 NHL regular season, and it was especially strong on top-rated puck-line and over/under NHL picks, going a combined 77-53 and returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, here are the model’s three best bets for Maple Leafs vs. Senators on Sunday:
Maple Leafs to win (-160 on the money line)
Ottawa swept the season series 3-0 between these teams, and that’s a factor in why Toronto is not an overwhelming favorite in Game 1 at home. Other betting trends, however, work strongly in Toronto’s favor. The Maple Leafs returned a total of +1061 for money-line backers this season, and they were a profitable +360 with a 27-14 home record. Toronto also enters the 2025 NHL playoffs on a 13-3 overall run since March 17. The model is projecting the Maple Leafs to carry that momentum into the postseason as they win in 62% of simulations. FanDuel is among the books with the best price on the money line for Toronto at -160.
Over 5.5 goals (-110)
Both of the first two games between these teams resulted in just three combined goals. The most recent one, however, on March 15 had a combined six goals. Ottawa also enters the NHL playoffs on a five-game Over streak. The model gives Auston Matthews and William Nylander higher than a 50% chance to score for Toronto, while Brady Tkachuk has around a 40% chance to score for Ottawa. The model is projecting 5.6 combined goals, giving the edge to the Over.
Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (+117)
The dynamic center averaged well over a point per game this season and had 33 goals in 67 games played, including one in his final three regular-season contests. He’s been a menace against the Senators throughout his career, scoring 25 goals in 35 career matchups against them. He’s found the net against them twice in three games this year, and the model gives him nearly a 60% chance to score in this one. Caesars Sportsbook lists him at +117 as an anytime goalscorer, and if you’re looking to go bigger, he’s +900 to score first.
Want more NHL picks?
You’ve seen the best bets for Maple Leafs on Sunday. Now, get picks for every game at SportsLine, all from the model that ended the season going a combined 77-53 on over/under and puck-line picks.
Also, at SportsLine, Matt Severance is the No. 1 NHL expert, entering the NHL playoffs on a 120-62 roll on NHL sides picks, returning $2,490 for $100 players. See his best bets for the NHL playoffs at SportsLine.
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